‘October surprise’: game-changer to turn the tables in US presidential race

The US media defines an ‘October surprise’, a term coined by Reagan campaign manager William Casey in 1980, as a game-changing event ahead of Election Day. But can a bombshell really mean victory for one candidate?

What are the most famous October surprises?

◻️ Founding Fathers' dirty campaign: The first dates back to aggressive smear campaigns between then-president John Adams and his rival and former vice-president Thomas Jefferson in 1800. Political pamphleteer and journalist James Callender, allegedly hired by Jefferson, launched a print campaign against Adams before the election, tipping the balance.

◻️ Failed hostage deal: Jimmy Carter's failure to strike a hostage deal with Iran cost him re-election in 1980. The release of US hostages taken during the Islamic Revolution of 1979, was one of the pressing national issues during the 1980 election. In 2023, the New York Times and the Intercept alleged that the Reagan campaign manager and later CIA director William Casey, plotted to convince Tehran to not release hostages before the election, depriving Carter of the political capital. The hostages were released on January 20, 1981, just minutes after Ronald Reagan's inauguration.

◻️ Osama bin Laden tape and George W. Bush: Three years after the September 11 attacks, a video message by al-Qaeda* leader Osama bin Laden boosted then-president George W. Bush’s election odds. In a tape broadcast by Al Jazeera on October 29, 2004, bin Laden acknowledged responsibility the 9/11 attack for the first time and threatened the US with new attacks. A poll two days later gave Bush a six-point lead over his Democratic rival John Kerry. The Telegraph reported at the time that the tape may have helped the president win another term as it "sparked a sharp final round of argument over which candidate can best defeat terrorism."

◻️ Access Hollywood Vs. Emailgate: Two October surprises rocked the US in 2016. On October 7, an Access Hollywood tape showing Republican candidate Donald Trump making sexist remarks was leaked, prompting a storm of criticism. But new evidence of Democrat Hillary Clinton’s use of a private server for classified government emails on October 28 eclipsed the Trump tape scandal. "If the election had been on October 27th, I’d be your president," Clinton complained to CNN in 2017.

◻️ The "Laptop from hell": If the story of Hunter Biden's abandoned had not been suppressed, it could have been the October surprise of the 2020 race between his father Joe Biden and Trump. Emails, pictures and video files on Hunter's laptop detailing an influence-peddling scheme was reported by the New York Post in mid-October 2020, but immediately blocked by social media and dismissed by 51 US former intel operatives as "Russian disinformation."

What’s next?

◻️ The Hill names five possible events which could play either in Trump or Kamala Harris' favor, including the release of damaging tapes, a hurricane, new assassination attempts, another presidential debate and a major military escalation overseas.

*al-Qaeda is a terrorist organization banned in Russia and many other countries.

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UAE airline banned pagers and walkie-talkies on board

Major UAE airline Emirates said on Saturday that it had banned pagers and walkie-talkies on board its passenger aircraft following device explosions in Lebanon.
 

"All passengers traveling on flights to, from, or via Dubai are prohibited from transporting pagers and walkie-talkies in checked or cabin baggage. Such items found in passengers' hand luggage or checked baggage will be confiscated by Dubai Police," the airline said. 

 
The move comes after a series of explosions of pagers and walkie-talkies in Lebanon from September 17-18, which killed over 40 people and injured nearly 3,500 others. It is still unknown what caused thousands of devices to explode simultaneously. Lebanese movement Hezbollah and the Lebanese authorities blame Israel for the blasts. Israeli President Isaac Herzog denied the country's involvement in the incidents.

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Lebanese movement Hezbollah said on Saturday that it had fired missiles on the facilities of the ATA Defense Industries, located in the northern Israeli city of Sakhnin.

"Islamic resistance fighters launched a missile attack on the ATA military production complex in Sakhnin," the statement read.

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🗳 With election a month away, nearly 60% of Americans fear vote fraud
 
58% of Americans are either “concerned” or “very concerned” about voter fraud in the upcoming November 5 presidential election, according to a fresh PR/PBS News/Marist poll. By contrast, 42% said they’re “not very concerned” or “not concerned at all.” 

Self-described Republicans are the most concerned about the upcoming vote, with 86% expressing apprehensions about voting by persons ineligible to do so, or the casting of more than one ballot.
 
Among independents, 55% said they are concerned. From among self-described Democrats, just 33% said they are concerned over the prospect of voter fraud.
 
Two-thirds (66%) of those polled also expressed concerns about foreign countries interfering in the election. Meanwhile, 52% said they are concerned or very concerned about non-citizens voting. 81% of Republicans, 53% of independents, and 25% of Democrats expressed concerns about this possibility.
 
The Marist poll was conducted September 27-October 1 and involved the questioning of 1,514 adult registered voters.
 
The polling comes amid signs of declining trust in electoral institutions. Last month, a SSRS/CNN poll found that between just 4 in 10 and half of likely voters in six key battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—are “very confident” in the accuracy of their states’ voting processes.
 
These same six states were contested by Donald Trump after the 2020 election amid allegations that the vote there was “rigged” or “stolen” using mail-in ballots or faulty voting machines—claims election and state officials, Democratic leaders, and some Republican leaders vocally denied.

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The Israeli Defense Forces admit Iranian missiles hit two air bases, but Israeli planes and air force capabilities were undamaged, the IDF spokesman said.

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Netanyahu stated that Israel has the "duty and right" to respond to Iran's attack and promised to do so.

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Russia’s Afghan realpolitik designed to combat twin hydra of terrorism, drugs – expert

Russia wants sanctions targeting Afghanistan lifted, frozen assets returned, and various forms of cooperation restored, primarily due to the “grave humanitarian situation” facing the country, and the obvious benefits of a stable Afghanistan for the region, Russian Council for International Affairs expert Kirill Semenov told Sputnik, commenting on the results of Friday's Moscow Format of Consultations on Afghanistan meeting.

Meeting with senior representatives from ten countries, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov slammed the West's "cynical policy" on Afghanistan, accusing the US and its allies of deliberately obstructing the country's recovery. Lavrov called for sanctions to be lifted, and Afghanistan's frozen assets given back.

Separately, Russian special presidential representative on Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov announced that Moscow is preparing to remove the Taliban* from its list of terrorist groups.

“The Taliban, being that they are in power, is trying to fight terrorism, trying to fight drug trafficking, trying to take other steps to normalize the situation in the country, but they lack any resources, any opportunities to conduct open foreign economic and foreign policy activities, which creates serious obstacles for economic growth in the country, for the development of the economy,” Semenov said, explaining the Russian Foreign Ministry’s bold initiatives.

“For now, Russia, the countries of the Middle East and Central Asia are at the vanguard of the gradual recognition of the Taliban and the establishment of full-fledged interstate relations with them,” the observer said, adding that the US and its allies, not opposed to the idea of normalized relations with Afghanistan in principle, want to see the Taliban “act in line with US interests,” with the seized assets “a very important tool to pressure the Taliban to become more accommodating.”

Washington opposes Afghanistan under the Taliban joining regional groups like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization or Global South institutions opposing Western influence, Semenov emphasized.

“They are trying to blackmail the Taliban’s political leadership, so that if it takes any steps, it does so with an eye toward the United States. In other words, the Americans want to maintain their influence in Afghanistan using these frozen assets,” the analyst said.

The Biden administration froze over $7 bln in Afghan assets in August 2021, with an additional $2 bln+ blocked in Europe and the UAE. Russia, China, Iran, and several Central Asian nations are seeking pragmatic diplomatic and economic ties with Afghanistan, focusing on infrastructure, trade, and regional security.

*under UN sanctions for terrorist activities

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US CENTCOM chief Gen. Michael Kurilla has landed in Israel to meet with Israeli military officials amid IDF preparations for a response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack, Israeli media report.

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◻️ Israel-Lebanon: how current strikes have outpaced intensity of 2006 and 1982 wars

◻️ Anti-China noise about Chagos Islands’ handoff hides continued US/UK access to strategic bomber base

◻️ Why the newly-adopted Pact for the Future is a ‘huge defeat for the UN’

◻️ ‘October surprise’: game-changer to turn the tables in US presidential race

◻️ Russia’s Afghan realpolitik designed to combat twin hydra of terrorism, drugs – expert

◻️ Le Pen Trial ‘good opportunity’ for establishment to try to bring France’s ‘leading party to its knees’

◻️ ‘Billions for Ukraine, pennies for Americans’: netizens fume over stingy hurricane relief

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🎥🎥 Mass protest erupted at Times Square in solidarity with the Palestinian people on the eve of the anniversary of the October 7 attacks

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Trump arrives in Butler, Pennsylvania

The former president’s plane was spotted in the sky above the campaign venue, signaling his arrival in Butler, Pennsylvania, a Sputnik correspondent reported.

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Trump lands in Butler, Pennsylvania

Former President Donald Trump has arrived in Pennsylvania, making his way to the Butler fairgrounds for his rally.

Trump embraced the family of firefighter Corey Comperatore, who was tragically shot and killed during the attempted assassination on Trump at his previous rally in Butler.

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