(Part one)

Further thoughts regarding the Kostyantynivka direction and where I think it is going:

First off, it is important to remember that just because Russia is making important progress in the direction of Kostyantynivka, it doesn't necessarily mean that they will keep pushing until they level out that whole big salient.

Russia's tactic is pushing in one area, pulling Ukrainian forces away from another part of the frontline to the section where they are pushing, and then push in either that area where the Ukrainian forces were brought from, or in another critical or weak area. It's a game of whack-a-mole for Ukraine as they attempt to plug gaps in their defence, while Russia pushes where they choose.

Does this mean Russia won't make an exception for this salient? No, of course not. In fact, it's entirely plausible that Russia will choose to employ this stretching and probing tactic, but instead of it being theatre-wide, it focuses on a lower level only inside the salient, pushing and stretching the frontline at various smaller points, with the general goal of capturing key positions, tactical heights and settlements, and the overall goal being collapsing the salient to the northwest in the direction of Kostyantynivka.

This will obviously take some time as Ukraine realises the critical situation of their units defending the area, but as long as Russia applies enough pressure in the right points and keeps up their strikes on the rear, a Ukrainian collapse on the tactical level is inevitable (think of something like the collapse of the salient which formed around Krasnohorivka, Hirnyk and Ukrainsk in mid-late 2024 as an example of what this future collapse which I am predicting could be vaguely reminiscent of).

But we must not assume that just because they made quick gains here, that it will be forever. The longevity of the attacks and the success that Russia enjoys will depend on a number of factors, including Ukrainian redeployments, morale, mobilisation efforts, coordination, and much, much more. Russia will also have to ensure that they are attacking in a coordinated and overall intelligent manner, (e.g. not conducting massive and suicidal mechanised assaults across huge fields), but rather employing tactics which have worked for them in the past, such as what I have previously talked about with the situation around the village of Troitske (Novopavlivka direction) where Russian forces are encountering fierce resistance but are still managing to attack with minimal casualties.

Of course, there is also the effect that progress (or even territorial losses) on other fronts will ultimately have on the overall success and efficiency of this offensive. Chasiv Yar is the most obvious, with Russian forces halting most of the assault operations in the city itself due to heavy Ukrainian drone usage, no significant Ukrainian shortages of manpower and extremely fortified positions, trenches, and strongpoints. Russian forces have instead opted for attacks on the heavily fortified village of Stupochky in order to secure the southern flank and pressure the remaining tactical heights south of Chasiv Yar. Due to Chasiv Yar's strategic placement on the top of the tactical heights, it is vital to a Russian assault on Kostyantynivka and eventually Druzhkivka. The sector also overlooks its own mini-salient north of Toretsk, basically a salient within a salient. This will need to be eliminated, but once again, Ukraine has very dug-in positions, this time along the Siverksy Donets Canal, which will require extensive clearing operations and aerial bombardment to dislodge the units stationed there which have had years to prepare. This explains Russia's attacks on the nearby villages of Dyliivka and Druzhba.

The Pokrovsk direction on the other-hand will have less of an effect due to the positioning of it and how the Russian's have postured themselves in the area of the Pokrovsk - Kostyantynivka highway.

(Part two)

Overall, it is important not to underestimate or overestimate the Russian or Ukrainian militaries. Both are very capable fighting forces. While Russia has the upper hand in almost every part of this war, this does not mean that Ukraine won't fight fiercely for parts of their country such as Kostyantynivka. Just because it's clear how this offensive will end up, it is not clear how it will be conducted, the effect it will have on the strategic situation, and what losses either side will endure.

Let's be realistic. Russia will collapse this salient, but it won't be a walk in the park. Ukraine understands how important it is to hold this area and will do whatever they can to hold back and prolong an eventual Russian offensive on Kostyantynivka. They don't want a repeat of Bakhmut where they fell back towards the city quickly, not giving enough time for adequate fortifications to be constructed, for the civilian population to be evacuated, and for other preparatory measures to be taken.

Two Tu-95MS strategic bombers departed from Olenya Air Base in Murmansk Oblast. These are probably the ones which flew to that "mystery" air base I was talking about previously, and have since returned to Olenya. They are flying south towards Engels-2 Air Base, presumably to be equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles, before making a return flight back north to Olenya.

Geran-3 jet drone in the direction of Odesa. ~70km from the shore.

Approaching the Odesa port / Fontanka.

Its set to fly to the northeast of Odesa City itself.

Approaching. 5km from the coast.

Explosion in Chabanka

Glushkovsky District, Kursk Oblast.

Russian sources report that Ukrainian forces have begun large-scale strikes on the village of Tetkino with artillery and drones.

Five Ukrainian soldiers reportedly then crossed the international border from Ryzhivka under the cover of artillery and drones, and entered Tetkino, where they engaged in clashes with Russian forces defending the area of the railway station (around 200m from the border). After facing fierce resistance, the Ukrainian soldiers retreated back to Ryzhivka and covered the village with more drones and artillery.

Additionally, what was likely an airstrike destroyed a bridge near Zvannoe (circled in yellow), while high activity of Ukrainian reconnaissance and FPV drones continues to be observed across the area.

One Russian sources reported that Russia has destroyed several ATVs and two engineering vehicles, while Ukrainian activity opposite Tetkino in Sumy Oblast is only increasing.

This is all early information. More details to follow.

The destroyed bridge in Zvannoe.

MLRS and artillery continues to work on both sides.

Unconfirmed reports by Russian sources state that Ukrainian mine clearing vehicles have cleared parts of the border around Tetkino and Ukrainian armoured vehicles and soldiers have followed.

Heavy fighting is reported with Russian paratroopers engaged in battles with Ukrainian forces, possibly from the 225th Assault Regiment.

First photo from this new Ukrainian Kursk operation. A Ukrainian mine clearing vehicle is burning near the border.

Its too early to say that this is a new offensive, like some have been claiming. But this doesn't seem to just be a few soldiers running across the border and taking a selfie either.

Let's wait and see.

Reports suggest that at least 3 Ukrainian mine clearing vehicles, including 2 IMR-2s and 1 UR-77 crossed the border. Russian sources report that all three of those vehicles were destroyed. A tank and an infantry fighting vehicle with soldiers also seem to have crossed the border, with clashes ongoing between those soldiers (who dismounted) and Russian paratroopers from the 217th Airborne Regiment.

Ukrainian forces have reportedly opened up a second vector of attack in Glushkovsky district of Kursk Oblast, with armoured vehicles pushing from Bezsalivka in Sumy Oblast to the rear of Tetkino.

If true, it's likely that Ukraine is trying to cut off Tetkino from the rear by reaching the Seym River.

Heavy artillery, mortar and drone strikes continue in the Tetkino area of Kursk Oblast as Ukrainian forces continue their attempts to break through under heavy fire cover.

High activity of reconnaissance drones continues on both sides as Russia attempts to spot and destroy Ukrainian equipment.

Ukrainian forces have reportedly opened up a third vector of attack in Glushkovsky district, Kursk Oblast, this time towards the Novy Trud tract.

They are taking advantage of bad weather conditions. Fierce battles are reported at these three points on the map. Rain is seriously complicating drone usage.

Novi Put tract, Glushkovsky District, Kursk Oblast.

Reports suggest several Ukrainian IMR-2 mine-clearing vehicles cleared a path in the minefields at the border. However, rather than armoured vehicles driving through, it's likely that small groups of 5-7 soldiers both on foot and with ATVs drive through. Battles are ongoing with Russian forces defending the tract.

Large concentrations of Ukrainian manpower and equipment are reported in the Tetkino - Novi put area. Ukraine seems to be stretching their forces to cover a larger area.

First video from the Kursk-Sumy border. Two Ukrainian vehicles are seen here (likely IMR-2s), one of which is burning.

This was apparently filmed near Novi Put.

Russian sources report that the tank which entered Tetkino was destroyed.

Apparently the IFV (A Stryker) was destroyed too.