Explosions in Slovyansk.

The Russians have likely been attacking in the direction of Panteleimonivka for weeks now. I originally thought that their goal was to protect the western flank of the assault in Niu-York, but considering the fact that they are still attacking there after the eastern flank had been completely secured, it makes me wonder why.

In my opinion Russia will start attacks from Keramik in the near future in order to envelope the Ukrainian garrison in Oleksandropil and the groupings in other defensive fortifications. That would line up with the reasoning for attacks on Panteleimonivka.

Ukraine has had quite a bit of time to dig in near Oleksandropil, so it wouldn't make sense for Russia to attack it head on.

Ukrainian forces were geolocated at a position deep inside Kursk Oblast (nearly 26km from the border).

This was likely a single spearhead attack that broke through Russian defences in one direction. Ukrainian forces are likely attempting to expand the flanks of this spearhead with heavy fighting likely ongoing in the villages of Orlovka, Pogrebki and Otradnoye among others.

This is a very flimsy spearhead as the Russians can easily counterattack from the flanks, so unless Ukraine is able to expand it quickly, they will be surrounded.

Nevertheless, it does show that the frontlines remain very fluid in some places even 5 days into the offensive.

Geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces have established a bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Reka Sudzha river in a new area, this time south of Sudzha.

This advance is likely a few days old with the first reports of a semi encirclement of eastern Sudzha coming in around 3 days ago.

Regarding the situation in Martynovka, Kursk Oblast:

The village of Martynovka has seen some of the heaviest fighting in the whole of Kursk Oblast. Tanks have been involved along with dozens of soldiers on each side. The Ukrainians have been desperate to take this settlement under their control in order to expand their bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Reka Loknya river (which runs through Sudzha) and to get behind Sudzha itself.

To understand the situation on the ground and the tactical value of Martynovka, you need to look at the local geography of the region. Sudzha - the main town and primary target of this Ukrainian offensive - is bisected by the Reka Loknya river. Swamps in the centre of the town, plus this river, make it difficult to cross in the town itself. This means that to reach the Russian garrison in the eastern part of Sudzha, the Ukrainians will need to advance from the flanks. This also works well with getting behind the Russians in Sudzha.

The Ukrainians ultimately chose to attack on both flanks but started off with the northern one as it branched off from the main assault to the town of Lgov. The flanking assault initially went well for the Ukrainians. They quickly caught the Russians off guard and managed to cross the river and seizing control over the villages of Ivashprovskii and Pravda, before advancing on their primary target of Martynovka. Martynovka would serve as a staging ground for attacks behind the Russian groupings in eastern Sudzha.

The Russians - after regrouping - likely realised the dire situation in Sudzha, and wanted to repel the Ukrainian assaults at all costs as they waited for reinforcements to arrive. Following a tank battle, Ukrainian forces managed to capture Martynovka within a few hours and established positions in the village. From here until recently, it is unknown what occurred in the area. In my opinion, Ukrainian forces likely attempted to attack Mikhailovka, but were repulsed by the newly regrouped Russians, so instead decided on consolidation of their new positions

Then yesterday, the Russians launched a series of counterattacks on Ukrainian positions in the settlement. Originally, Ukrainian sources reported that the first attack was repelled by Ukrainian forces, but shortly afterwards reports emerged that Russian marines had entered the settlement and were clearing it, from south to north. If I had to guess, the Russians attacked from the east, thinking that it would be easier to cut the village in half, but were repelled by stronger Ukrainian defences. They then decided on attacks from the south and managed to advance into the southern part of the settlement. This is all guesswork with very little information to go off, so it could be entirely wrong.

As for the situation now, considering the fact that the village lies on the face of a hill, it is likely contested, with the Ukrainians holding the northern part, the central part being in the grey zone and the Russians holding the southern part, slowly working their way north. Some sources are already reporting that Russian forces recaptured Martynovka from the Ukrainians, however I will wait a couple more days for more reliable sources to comment on the situation before changing the map.

I know this was a long report for one village, but I thought I owed it to you guys to do an analysis on a small section of the frontline in Kursk considering the scale of this operation.

Yesterday Ukrainian forces conducted a cross-border raid into Poroz, Belgorod Oblast. They posed in front of a clubhouse with a flag.

I'm under the impression that this was just a raid where they ran across the border, took a photo and went back. Almost every source I've seen report on the matter stated that the Ukrainians ran back across the border right after the photo and local residents report no gunfire in the village.

Some sources claimed that Ukrainian forces took two prisoners, however this remains unconfirmed. If there are no more geolocations by tomorrow, I will remove it from the map.

Update from the Pokrovsk direction:

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces continue to advance westwards in the direction of Pokrovsk.

Russian forces managed to advance west of Vesele, capturing positions in new treelines on the high-ground next to the gulley. It will be a downhill advance from there to Hrodivka.

Additionally, Russian infantry was able to advance into Ivanivka from multiple directions and have captured the majority of the settlement. This will open up the opportunity for attacks on Hrodivka from the east. The treelines surrounding the village were also captured, allowing for quicker attacks inside it.

Russian forces also made a small advance near Lozuvatske, dislodging the Ukrainians from their positions in the treelines near the Kazenyi reservoir.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces continue to slowly advance in Kostyantynivka.

Here they managed to capture just over 6 blocks of low-rise residential areas. Advancing along the streets, Russian infantry supported by at least three BMPs and one BTR-82 advanced in the southeastern part of the settlement by ~640m.

There was also an advance of ~360m from the storage facility into eastern Kostyantynivka. This likely allowed the Russians to get behind Ukrainian positions on the westernmost banks of the reservoir, and forced a withdrawal to the northeastern part of the settlement.

Overall, now that Russian forces have a solid foothold in Kostyantynivka, the advances will continue to speed up as they approach the centre of the town which is bisected by the O0532 highway.

Earlier today, Russian MLRS were fired at Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast. Locals reported 5 explosions and three arrivals in the city (Presumably two shot down). Heavy damage was viewed near the old town.

Russian sources claimed that a temporary deployment centre for the AFU was hit.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces continue to advance in Chasiv Yar, and have greatly expanded their bridgehead on the western bank of the Siversky Donets canal.

Here they managed to capture the first line of residential blocks and reached the Nedohibchenko street, which splits the Zhovtnevyl and Novyi micro-districts.

There were reports that Russian forces managed to capture the Chasiv Yar radio station, however this has not been confirmed. If true, it would put the remaining Ukrainian fortifications by the canal at risk of encirclement.

Deepstate's new map update indicates that Russian forces have made a series of sudden advances in the direction of the Oskil river.

Notably, Russian forces are apparently about to encircle Ukrainian groupings in the blue oval following an advance around the source of the Zherebets river.

Fortifications have also reportedly been seized near Tabaivka on the tactical heights.

A reliable source has just reported that the Ukrainian advance into Kursk has stopped completely. I was waiting on this source to say this.

A Russian source reported that Ukraine is building up forces in the Slatyne area for an attack on Belgorod Oblast. It is possible that the goal here is to get behind the Russian incursion into Kharkiv near Lyptsi.

This reported buildup may also be connected to the Russian Iskander strikes on Kharkiv a couple of days ago.

Keep in mind that Ukraine is still attacking and further advances are likely, but it will get very bloody very fast. Think Robotyne.

Ukraine doesn't mind losing territory gained by the RDK or LSR, but once they start losing territory captured by regular AFU troops, they will do anything to hold/expand it.

Russian soldiers on the frontlines reported that Russian infantry are slowly moving forward on the heights near Klishchiivka. The goal here is likely to capture the "Axe" defensive fortification behind the village.

It does appear that the AFU is putting up significant resistance here, however.

Russian sources are reporting that Ukrainian forces crossed the Sudzha river and captured the village of Plekhovo.

Update from Martynovka:

Geolocated footage shows that Russian forces have a presence in Martynovka after pushing the AFU from the settlement. Russian milblogger "Romanov" reported that Ukraine is once again attacking the village with battles ongoing at this moment.

⚡️ Urgent: A missile barrage consisting of at least 30 missiles hit Nahariya and Kabri

Explosions were also reported

Russian forces likely cleared the forested area on the tactical heights behind Tabaivka. This was probably done by advancing from the newly captured fortifications north of Pishchane, downhill into the gulley, getting behind Ukrainian positions near the Pishchane river.

They might have advanced over the Pishchane river and up the hills, but that would be more difficult. It would've been better for them to leverage their control over their new positions north of Pishchane village and branch off from there.

Update from Kursk Oblast - Sudzha direction:

Ukrainian forces were geolocated in the last Russian stronghold in Sudzha - the district on the eastern bank of the Sudzha river. Russian forces are actively shelling the Ukrainian positions with artillery. This does not mean that Sudzha has been captured, however. Russian forces likely still maintain a presence in the easternmost part of the town, where a garrison is stationed in the residential area.

It is likely that to make this sudden attack on eastern Sudzha possible, Ukrainian forces employed the tactic of advancing along the windbreaks of either side of the railway line - in this case the Lgov-Sudzha railway line - using the trees (which remain largely untouched from the war in this place) as cover from Russian artillery and FPV drones. The Russians have employed this tactic a lot recently and was the first step in the Ocheretyne localised breakthrough in the Pokrovsk direction.

Ukrainian forces then likely scattered themselves among the houses, clearing the limited Russian positions. Russian forces who are still waiting on more reinforcements to arrive likely hide in the basements of houses to prevent being killed by Ukrainian MLRS which are still actively being used on eastern Sudzha.

Ukrainian forces were also geolocated in new positions in Makhnovka (south of Sudzha), indicating the capture of the settlement. This shows that they have established yet another bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Sudzha river (the third one so far) and are likely attempting to expand it into the nearby settlements of Zamoste and Dmitriukov. If this bridgehead is expanded, it will eventually allow for an attack on the Russian garrison stationed in eastern Sudzha from the south, squeezing them out with simultaneous attacks from the north, although it is entirely possible that eastern Sudzha will fall as a whole before then.

As for the Russian reinforcements, the ones that have already arrived at the frontline are likely primarily stationed in and around the key settlement of Martynovka (I have explained the significance of this village in a separate post). This is because this is the area where the heaviest fighting is being reported, with constant Russian and Ukrainian counterattacks being carried out.

Reports are coming in that Ukrainian forces attacked again in this sector, but lost 1 tank, 7 BTR/BMPs and 13 other armored combat vehicles. These losses have not been confirmed, nor has it been established whether this attack was successful or not. All we know is that it is likely that Ukraine wants to regain control over Martynovka, likely to prevent morale issues. Additionally, it is a strategic position, as the village can be used as a staging ground for attacks on the neigbouring village of Mikhailovka to get the rear of Sudzha. The Ukrainians, who hold positions on the high ground behind the settlement likely see themselves in a situation of power as they exert fire control over the area.

Overall, it is likely - in my opinion - that Sudzha will fall in the coming days. The Russians will likely withdraw to more advantageous positions before launching a series of counterattacks to reverse the Ukrainian advances. It is also possible that the Russians will choose to hold eastern Sudzha while they wait for reinforcements to arrive, so they can use the residential area as a staging ground and forward troop concentration point for attacks on the rest of the town, but this option seems less likely to me.

These are probably some of the last Ukrainian advances that we will see in Kursk Oblast for now.