Correction: The Nasser hospital is not included in the evacuation zone, as it is in the western part of the city, next to the Khan Younis Refugee Camp. There will still be a hospital to accommodate Palestinians in southern Gaza for the time being.

Map of the current areas of Gaza under an evacuation order by the IDF due to current or future Israeli ground activity.

The evacuation zones now account for approximately 66% of the total land area of the Gaza Strip.

Russian forces have captured the village of Romanivka, Kostyantynivka direction, Donetsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~155.

Russian Tu-95MS strategic bombers have begun redeploying back to Olenya Airbase.

Following the flight of the first Tu-95 from Engels-2 to Olenya, 4 more have since flown back, including two some time in the last couple of hours. It’s possible that one of the other two was the one which flew to Diaghilev airbase which I talked about 2 days ago. This means that 3-4 Tu-95s flew from Belaya Airbase. More will likely follow suit in the coming days.

Currently, 5 Tu-95s are stationed at Olenya, ALL of which are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. One of two more redeployments, and the next large-scale missile strike on Ukraine is ready.

Russian forces have captured the village of Nova Poltava, Kostyantynivka direction, Donetsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~430.

I guarantee you that there are Pro-Ukrainians out there who if they visited some city in eastern Ukraine, talked to actual Ukrainians and get told by said Ukrainians that they want the war to end, they would proceed to call those same Ukrainians Russian trolls and kremlin agents.

This war is a perfect example of how people can form opinions like this from the comfort of their own homes, on their cellphone, while real Ukrainians and Russians are suffering for a stupid war that could end IF Zelensky actually negotiated in good faith.

I have spoken with Ukrainians in the past and still do. Some have had to bury their own family members, many of which were forcibly mobilised, sent to the frontlines after 2-3 weeks of training, before getting killed.

This war does not have to be fought, and those calling on the west to provide Ukraine with tens of billions of dollars' worth of weapons are so misinformed and lack common sense. Why should weapons be sent to Ukraine if all its going to do is prolong the inevitable? Let's say Ukraine does get $100 Billion worth of weapons, what happens next? 20,000 more Russian soldiers die? The war carries on for 6 months longer than it otherwise would have? I will never understand this logic.

People are dying. This is real life, and yet people treat it like a video game or a Hollywood movie. I think this is partially the effect of social media on people's brains, where they see snippets from war with "cool music" and flashy effects and subconsciously form this outlook on war as some sort of valiant and noble thing. No - the "good guys" don't always win in real life and in extension war, and yes people are dying for something that could end now. All it takes is some good faith and morals from Zelensky and the west, and hundreds of thousands of more people won't die.

Posts like this above are incredibly disrespectful of Ukrainians, including Ukrainian soldiers who they claim to support, and downplays the suffering that they endure. It's easy for people to say stuff like this from the comfort of their own homes while others fight the war.

Sorry for the rant, but I feel this needs to be said.

In the Yunakivka direction, Russian forces continued their advance and captured most of the village of Loknya.

Russian forces advanced south down both banks of the Loknya River from their positions in the northern part of the village and reached the southwestern outskirts, occupying the western side of Loknya. Ukrainian forces maintain a presence in the southeastern houses; however, the grey zone now extends to the northern part of Yunakivka.

In addition to this, Russian forces branched off from the western part of the village and entered the adjacent forested areas, which are also in the low-lying ground, and captured the positions there.

+ ~3.50km² in favour of Russia.

In the Vovchansk direction, Russian forces made new progress north of the Vovcha River.

Russian forces advanced south from their positions near the water treatment facility and the ruins of the secondary school and seized positions in collapsed houses transformed into dugouts on what used to be Shevchenka Street and Haharina Street. They were able to capture the destroyed Vovchansk Central Hospital as well as the primary school.

What was likely a sabotage and reconnaissance group attempted to cross the Vovcha River near Dukhovna Street but were killed by Ukrainian FPV drones.

+ ~0.14km² in favour of Russia.

In the Lyman direction, Russian forces have made significant progress and captured various new positions on the tactical heights.

Russian forces advanced from their positions west of the Zherebets River, moving up the forest plantations in the low-lying ground. They also pushed southwest down a treeline, secuing the eastern flank. These advances allowed for them to enter a forest to the northwest in Donetsk Oblast and seize positions in the forested areas near the border with Kharkiv Oblast, putting them just 2.2km away from the intersection of Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv Oblasts.

Additionally, to the north, Russian forces advanced northwest through a chain of forests, capturing three of them and some forest plantations in the low-lying ground on both banks of a tributary of the Zherebets River. From there they pushed onto the tactical heights to the northwest and seized treeline positions there.

+ ~11.80km² in favour of Russia.

Correction of the frontline in favour of Russia in the Kramatorsk direction:

At some point, Russian forces advanced from their positions north of the western part of the village of Kalinina and captured positions in the trenches and dugouts on the western bank of the Siversky Donets Canal. They also seized positions in the parallel treeline. These areas are on the tactical heights north of the city of Chasiv Yar.

+ ~0.21km² in favour of Russia.

In the Kostyantynivka direction, Russian forces made new progress north of the city of Toretsk and captured a trench network, threatening the encirclement of the remaining Ukraiians units in the city.

Russian forces completed the capture of the forested area on the southern bank of the second Dyliivski reservoir and advanced using motorcycles along the road towards the highway. They were able to enter the trench network and capture the positions there.

+ ~0.36km² in favour of Russia.

In the Kostyantynivka direction, Russian forces continue to make progress and have begun clearing out the salient southwest of Toretsk.

Russian forces advanced in two areas. In the west, they began pushing from several directions, seizing numerous treelines and forest plantations both on the high ground and low-lying ground, and are approaching the village of Hnativka from the west and south. Furthermore, progress was made to the southeast of the village of Oleksandropil, protecting part of the southern flank of the spearhead to the village of Zorya, and levelling out the frontline in the direction of Hnativka.

In the east, Russian forces pushed on a wide front, clearing the trench strongpoints east of the highway to Kostyantynivka, before crossing the highway itself and capturing the small cafe and treeline to the south. They also pushed north into Romanivka, swiftly capturing the village, while also making further progress northwards in the forests on the western bank of the tributary of the Kryvyi Torets River.

+ ~24.31km² in favour of Russia.

In the Kostyantynivka direction, Russian forces continued to make rapid progress and have captured the village of Nova Poltavka, along with numerous other positions both on the tactical heights and in the low-lying ground.

Russian forces advanced in four main areas. In the east, they levelled out the frontline northwest of the village of Oleksandropil, before pushing north along the treelines to the next treeline which runs from east to west. They also made further progress in the southwestern part of the village of Yablunivka, seizing further positions in the houses there.

To the southwest, Russian forces made even more significant progress. They captured multiple trench strongpoints, before levelling out the frontline to the highway. They then crossed the highway, capturing the treelines which run along it, before advancing west and northwest, outflanking the village of Nova Poltabka and reaching the eastern bank of the Poltavka River. From here they captured positions in the forest plantations next to the reservoir which is a part of the river. They also gained a foothold on the southern end of a treeline further north.

At the same time, the final push was made in the eastern part of Nova Poltavka, which resulted in the remaining residential area being seized, along with the forest and orchard to the north and treeline to the east. A flag was subsequently raised in the centre of the village.

West of the Poltavka River, Russian forces pushed north from a chain of trench strongpoints to an isolated treeline, capturing it and reaching the southern bank of the tributary of the Poltavka River. Other assault detachments pushed east into the western part of Nova Poltavka, seizing the small residential area as well as the forest plantations on the former agricultural complex, therefore completing the capture of the settlement.

Once Nova Poltavka was seized, it opened up the way for further assault operations to the west, where Russian forces moved north along two treelines on the tactical heights, reaching the low-lying ground and capturing a perpendicular treeline as well as an agricultural complex. Further west, Russian forces seized Ukrainian positions in the other agricultural complex, as well as in five surrounding treelines, including at the intersection of four.

+ ~28.08km² in favour of Russia.

In the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces continued their advance, albeit at a slower pace than before.

They advanced in two areas. In the north, Russian forces advanced west to the next treeline, aligning the front with the treeline to the north of the gulley. They were able to capture most of this treeline, although the southern end of it, as well as most of the village of Kotlyarivka remain in the grey zone.

In the south, Russian forces advanced south from their positions southeast of the village of Troitske and captured the treeline directly west of the newly captured village of Bohdanivka. Other assault detachments advanced west from their positions south of the village, moving through the low-lying ground and capturing the rest of a forest plantation, therefore forming a small buffer-zone around Bohdanivka.

+ ~3.59km² in favour of Russia.

In western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian forces recently advanced and captured new positions on the tactical heights.

Russian forces advanced in two areas. In the east, they pushed along three treelines, reaching the intersection of them, while also making progress to the north, completing the capture of a fourth treeline.

In the west, Russian forces marginally advanced and captured part of a treeline, reaching the intersection with a second.

+ ~2.93km² in favour of Russia.

Iskander on Shostka, Sumy Oblast

Explosion in Shostka

Its possible that the missile hit outside Shostka. I will follow up shortly.

It seems to have impacted the vicinity of Shostka, however it was quite close as the explosion heard in the city was strong.

One part of the frontline which is not talked about nearly enough is Siversk. Russia has been pushing very hard here for multiple months and have made important progress, despite heavy casualties.

Parts of the Siversk salient are very open and lack treelines and fortifications, resulting in large grey zones and "no-mans-lands". This limits the options for Russian assault operations and often results in repelled attacks. However, recent progress in the village of Verkhnokamyanske has gone largely unnoticed, with Russian forces pushing through the ruins and, just a couple of days ago, have reached the western part of the village.

Now that most of this village is under Russian control, they are just 4km from the eastern outskirts of Siversk. Many of you will know how critical Siversk is to the Russians. Battles have been ongoing in the salient for nearly three years since the fall of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, primarily centred around the small village of Bilohorivka. I wrote previously that once Bilohorivka falls, the rest of the front will begin to open up and that is what we are seeing here.

While it is a definite possibility that Russia will choose not to pursue further offensive actions in the near future here and instead consolidate their positions in the ruins of Verkhnokamyanske, in my opinion they will focus on securing the flanks from Vyimka and Ivano Darivka to the north, and from Hryhorivka to the south. They will also probably aim at outflanking Hryhorivka through the forests in order to avoiding push through the ruins, while also gaining important trench fortifications there, solidifying their presence northeast of Siversk on the southern bank of the Siversky Donets River.

Once this frontline is levelled and united against Siversk, I think the options would be to take any defensive fortifications and positions north and south of the city (likely in the highlighted areas) before storming the city itself.

While it is still a definite possibility that the Russians will go to the rear of Siversk from the flanks, establish fire control over its logistical routes and pressure the Ukrainian garrison in the salient to withdraw that way, this recent progress in the east does call into question the offensive operations in the Lyman direction, and if the primary goal of the eventual capture of Lyman is actually to pressure the Siversk salient, or instead has something to do with the larger Oskil front or even the city of Slovyansk.

Time will tell, but the topography of the area east of Siversk certainly favours Russia and is reminiscent of the current situation in the Novopavlivka direction. I think that once the frontline finally cracks here, Siversk will be reached relatively quickly from the east and the battles for the city may begin. Ukraine has not shied away from bringing reinforcements to the Siversk salient in the past, so I wouldn't be surprised if they are able to hold off an attack for some time, but the future outcome of this salient is clear. The question is only about the how much time it will take.