Not confirmed yet

The last shahed turns back to Kyiv Oblast, reportedly flying near Kaniv.

Strong explosions in Kherson

A Russian soldier operating in the Sudzha direction reported that Ukrainian forces control the village of Mikhailovka, which is news to me considering that Russian forces recaptured Martynovka (slightly north of Mikhailovka).

My best guess on what happened would be as follows:

Ukraine attacked Martynovka, captured the village. Then without consolidating, they immediately exploited their momentum and advanced south into Mikhailovka, capturing that village too.

Russian reinforcements then launched a counterattack, recapturing Martynovka from the Ukrainians in order to alleviate the pressure on the Russian garrison that was stationed in eastern Sudzha at the time. The Russians, however, were either unable to recapture Mikhailovka, or haven't tried yet, and may be trying to encircle the AFU inside the settlement and use it as a staging ground for a counterattack on Sudzha, preventing Ukraine from achieving a buffer zone around the town.

MiG-31K airborne

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces continue to advance in the Pokrovsk direction.

Here, they managed to capture the rest of the village of Ivanivka, and advanced into Hrodivka, capturing the ruins of the former factory on the southeastern outskirts of the town. Ukrainian forces responded by shelling the new Russian positions.

As Russian forces have now entered Hrodivka, the battle for the Pokrovsk agglomeration has begun.

Strong explosions in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast.

Ukraine launched a missile in the direction of Azov. It was reportedly shot down over occupied Donetsk Oblast.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces continue to advance in Kostyantynivka.

Here, Russian infantry managed to seize control over 10 more blocks of houses and are now just ~550m from the O0532 road which runs through the centre of the settlement.

The advance here has been speeding up lately. You might remember me posting about the fact that Ukrainian resistance appeared to be very strong in this sector of the front line, well that seems to have changed now.

I expect that Russia will restart offensive operations from Paraskoviivka in the near future in order to support the attacks inside Kostyantynivka. They will probably try to seize the dachas in the northeast and the agricultural buildings in the north.

A few hours ago, rumours came in of an internal coup in Myanmar. This is reportedly linked to the dissatisfaction with the war effort. This comes as the Rebels' offensive dubbed "1027" shows no signs of slowing as they continue to seize military bases and towns across the country.

Dissenting generals reportedly deposed the current leader Min Aung Hlaing and took him into custody. However, there seems to be a communications blackout to and from the NPT Military HQ.

More to come.

If this military coup is actually happening the way I think it is, it would significantly up the war effort by the Junta forces. It is a possibility that the 1027 offensive would be slowed or even halted If the Junta really committed to defensive operations and the strengthening of their positions in major towns/cities.

Also the hills and military bases around the cities would need to be strengthened. The Rebels, especially the TNLA and PDF, have a habit of capturing the hilltop bases, and surrounding the towns which lie in the valleys, effectively laying siege to the Junta positions. If the Junta wants to combat this tactic, they will need to focus on the hilltop positions.

A regime change could - key word: could - take this war more seriously and turn the tide. This is all speculation, and a lot of it relies on their relations with China who is known to be a major player in this conflict.

There is a large scale Ukrainian UAV attack taking place in Russia right now. Air defence is active across multiple regions, with missiles also reportedly being shot down. A map will come later showing the approximate paths of the UAVs and missiles.

Meanwhile, Shaheds are still buzzing around Ukraine. A map will be made for that too.

Update from Kursk Oblast - Korenevo front:

Geolocated footage and reliable reports indicate that Ukrainian forces have regained the initiative in this part of the frontline and have once again pushed back the Russians near Korenevo. Previously, a Russian counterattack pushed the Ukrainians away from Korenevo, but footage has just come out showing Russian FPV drones attacking Ukrainian positions near the Reservoir.

Reports also indicate that Ukrainian forces expanded their spearhead on the northern flank and captured the villages of Matveevka and Olgovka. Chechan "Akhmat" forces responded by attacking and recapturing the village of Kremyanoe slightly further east, possibly in an attempt to seize the forests and cut the Ukrainian spearhead off at the base.

As for the situation further south, Russian forces reportedly pushed the Ukrainians away from the village of Snagost, before the AFU counterattacked, recapturing the settlement and breaking through Russian positions to the Seym River, contesting the village of Krasnooktyabr'skoe.

Overall, while the advances in the green remain unconfirmed, it does indicate that Ukraine is stepping up their efforts to capture the key town and railway hub of Korenevo by conducting a pincer movement on the settlement. This offensive is not over and is about to get a lot bloodier.

Regarding the situation in Klishchiivka:

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces advanced and captured the tactical height west of Klishchiivka known as "215.7."

This is significant for two reasons:

1. It means that the Russians have captured the "axe" stronghold, which overlooks Klishchiivka

2. It means that as they are now on the tactical heights, they exert fire control over the village. Previously Ukrainian forces had full control over the tactical heights, therefore preventing the Russians from accumulating in the village.

Now that the Russians control at least part of the heights, it means that they can accumulate forces in Klishchiivka and use it as a staging ground for future operations against the rest of the Ukrainian fortifications between Klishchiivka and the Siversky-Donets Canal, with the end goal being to capture the rest of the territory behind the canal in order to launch further assaults to get behind Toretsk, reaching Kostyantynivka.

This, plus a simultaneous advance in Chasiv Yar will effectively roll back the frontline to Kostyantynivka and allow the Russians to enter the Kramatorsk agglomeration. At least that's my prediction, and to be clear, I'm not saying it will all stem from this one tiny advance. This advance is just a small step in the direction of reaching Kostyantynivka. This will take a long time for Russia to do, as Ukraine continues to put up strong resistance in Chasiv Yar, but as I've been saying for months - Once Chasiv Yar falls, it's all over for Northern Donetsk. Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk are the keys to capturing the Oblast.

A Russian source reported that Ukrainian snipers are setting up firing positions on the roofs of high-rise buildings in Sudzha (likely the central part of the town).

5 Ukrainian UAVs were launched at Kursk city and are currently flying over Khomutovsky district of Kursk Oblast.

More to come.

Russian air defence is active in Donetsk city and Makiivka, likely against Ukrainian MLRS.

Traces of air defence in the skies over Donetsk city.

It is reported that units of the 80th and 82nd brigades of the AFU were withdrawn from Kursk Oblast due to significant losses. It is important to note that this is currently unconfirmed.