The 7 Tu-95s from Olenya are now flying over Saransk Oblast in the direction of Penza Oblast. After Penza is Saratov Oblast and the first launch lines in Engels district.

They will reach these launch lines in 20-30 minutes, however its important to note that they rarely conduct real launches from Engels district. They are usually simulated, while the real launches take place in Kalachyovksy district of Volgograd Oblast and/or Limansky district of Astrakhan Oblast.

Another ship has been deployed to the Black Sea. The total possible salvo of Kalibrs increases to 28.

Possible repeated launches of Geran-2 drones from the Tsymbulova Test Site, Oryol Oblast.

The 3 Tu-160s from Engels-2 Airbase are now over Astrakhan Oblast, approaching the Caspian Sea.

Possible repeated launches of Geran-2 drones from Khalino Airbase in Kursk Oblast

2 Su-57s are flying to their launch lines near Stary Oskol, Belgorod Oblast. They will probably launch Kh-59/69 cruise missiles.

The Tu-95s from Engels and Olenya have linked up. They are approaching the first set of launch lines in Engels district, Saratov Oblast.

The 3 Tu-160s conducted a launch maneuver from over the Caspian Sea. We will find out if it was simulated in the next 50-90 minutes.

~80 Gerans in Ukrainian airspace. Kharkiv City is currently under attack, an explosion was heard in the city centre a few minutes ago.

2 Su-57s are approaching their launch lines in Kursk Oblast rather than Belgorod.

2 more missile carriers were deployed to the Black Sea. The total possible salvo of Kalibr cruise missiles increases to 36.

9 Tu-95s conducted a launch maneuver from over Engels district of Saratov Oblast. If real, missiles will arrive in Ukrainian airspace in the next 40-70 mins.

What we have as of now:

9 Tu-95MS strategic bombers which just conducted launch maneuvers.
3 Tu-160 strategic bombers which conducted launch maneuvers.
2 Su-57s approaching their launch lines.
7 Kalibr carriers in the Black sea (total possible salvo of 36 kalibrs)
And the obvious continued threat of Iskander activity and subsequent launches.

Correction: only 6 of the Tu-95s have conducted launch maneuvers so far. All 9 Tu-95s now flying southwest towards the next set of launch lines in the Kalachyovksy district of Volgograd Oblast which they are expected to reach in ~25 minutes.

Kalibr launches from the Black Sea.

The kalibr launches took place from a single ship at the Gelendzhek port in Krasnodar Krai. The 7 other ships haven't even launched yet.

Total possible salvo increases to 40.

There is also a possibility of further launches from Anapa port on top of all of this.

This is gonna be a chaotic one to map, I just feel it...

A second launch maneuver was carried out from the Tu-160s over the Caspian Sea.

The first kalibrs should arrive in Beryslav district, Kherson Oblast in 10-20 mins.

Kh-69s over Ukraine