Topographical analysis on the tactical situation near Korenevo, Kursk Oblast:
Following Ukraine regaining the initiative in this sector of the frontline, I thought I'd make another post covering the topography of this region, how it affects the ongoing battles and what we can expect from it in the future.
Firstly, let's take a look at the different hills here. There are three main groups of hills, I'll call them tactical heights as they are only around 120 metres higher than the lowest ground in the area.
Two of these tactical heights are under the control of Russian forces, while one is contested, but mostly under control of the AFU. Let's call them height 1, 2 and 3 (as shown on the map). Height 1 is currently almost entirely under the control of the AFU. Ukrainian forces were able to catch the Russians by surprise by advancing up the Sudzha-Korenevo road and establishing positions on the other side of the heights near the Krepna river.
The Russians, who obviously didn't want to lose control over these heights, launched a hasty counterattack using Chechen "Akhmat" forces, which resulted in them recapturing the village of Kremyanoe and establishing a small foothold on the northern face of tactical height 1. Their goal may have been to cut the Ukrainians off at the base, but due to the nature of the topography, they lost momentum quickly and were unable to do this.
The Russians also maintain a foothold on a separated height, which I still consider a part of height 1, however the fact that this part is contested makes it difficult to see the usefulness of holding positions here. That might explain why reports came in today that Ukrainian forces had captured that area, namely the small forest.
I won't talk much about tactical height 3, as it is fully controlled by Russian forces and is on the other side of the Seym river, but it is important to note that controlling this height does allow the Russians to exert fire control over Korenevo, meaning that they can accumulate troops inside the town. It also allows them to have better surveillance of the surrounding areas and detect Ukrainian attacks in advance.
In my opinion, the main think to watch out for is tactical height 2. If the Ukrainians can capture this, then it would allow them to open up another front against the Russians in Korenevo and possibly encircle it against the Seym river, similarly to what happened in eastern and central Sudzha.
How could the Ukrainians capture these heights? Well, they may already have started attempting to do this. Many people saw the original goal of this offensive being to reach the Kurchatov Nuclear Power Plant, and to cut the E38 highway which runs through Lgov. However, I'm wondering if there may have been a secondary goal with attacking in this direction, that being to branch off from the main assault vector in order to seize tactical height 2. While the AFU could have just assaulted it head on, it wouldn't make sense to do this, as if they are already planning on attacking to the E38 highway, they may as well leverage their control in the highlands to advance to Korenevo from another direction - a direction other than the one from the Sudzha-Korenevo road.
On a secondary note, this would also give them the opportunity of cutting the Rylsk-Korenevo road which runs near the eastern bank of the Seym river and resupplies Korenevo. Cutting this would significantly negatively affect the situation for the garrison stationed in Korenevo and could force a withdrawal over the Seym river.
Overall, while it is impossible to predict things with 100% certainty, we are able to make assumptions based on a number of factors, with one of those being the topography of the chosen region. Russia has been known to follow the high ground in the past, and this tactic works for them in an attritional sense, so why wouldn't Ukraine try out the same thing as this Kursk offensive turns more and more attritional as more time goes by?
Following Ukraine regaining the initiative in this sector of the frontline, I thought I'd make another post covering the topography of this region, how it affects the ongoing battles and what we can expect from it in the future.
Firstly, let's take a look at the different hills here. There are three main groups of hills, I'll call them tactical heights as they are only around 120 metres higher than the lowest ground in the area.
Two of these tactical heights are under the control of Russian forces, while one is contested, but mostly under control of the AFU. Let's call them height 1, 2 and 3 (as shown on the map). Height 1 is currently almost entirely under the control of the AFU. Ukrainian forces were able to catch the Russians by surprise by advancing up the Sudzha-Korenevo road and establishing positions on the other side of the heights near the Krepna river.
The Russians, who obviously didn't want to lose control over these heights, launched a hasty counterattack using Chechen "Akhmat" forces, which resulted in them recapturing the village of Kremyanoe and establishing a small foothold on the northern face of tactical height 1. Their goal may have been to cut the Ukrainians off at the base, but due to the nature of the topography, they lost momentum quickly and were unable to do this.
The Russians also maintain a foothold on a separated height, which I still consider a part of height 1, however the fact that this part is contested makes it difficult to see the usefulness of holding positions here. That might explain why reports came in today that Ukrainian forces had captured that area, namely the small forest.
I won't talk much about tactical height 3, as it is fully controlled by Russian forces and is on the other side of the Seym river, but it is important to note that controlling this height does allow the Russians to exert fire control over Korenevo, meaning that they can accumulate troops inside the town. It also allows them to have better surveillance of the surrounding areas and detect Ukrainian attacks in advance.
In my opinion, the main think to watch out for is tactical height 2. If the Ukrainians can capture this, then it would allow them to open up another front against the Russians in Korenevo and possibly encircle it against the Seym river, similarly to what happened in eastern and central Sudzha.
How could the Ukrainians capture these heights? Well, they may already have started attempting to do this. Many people saw the original goal of this offensive being to reach the Kurchatov Nuclear Power Plant, and to cut the E38 highway which runs through Lgov. However, I'm wondering if there may have been a secondary goal with attacking in this direction, that being to branch off from the main assault vector in order to seize tactical height 2. While the AFU could have just assaulted it head on, it wouldn't make sense to do this, as if they are already planning on attacking to the E38 highway, they may as well leverage their control in the highlands to advance to Korenevo from another direction - a direction other than the one from the Sudzha-Korenevo road.
On a secondary note, this would also give them the opportunity of cutting the Rylsk-Korenevo road which runs near the eastern bank of the Seym river and resupplies Korenevo. Cutting this would significantly negatively affect the situation for the garrison stationed in Korenevo and could force a withdrawal over the Seym river.
Overall, while it is impossible to predict things with 100% certainty, we are able to make assumptions based on a number of factors, with one of those being the topography of the chosen region. Russia has been known to follow the high ground in the past, and this tactic works for them in an attritional sense, so why wouldn't Ukraine try out the same thing as this Kursk offensive turns more and more attritional as more time goes by?
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AMK Mapping
Topographical analysis on the tactical situation near Korenevo, Kursk Oblast: Following Ukraine regaining the initiative in this sector of the frontline, I thought I'd make another post covering the topography of this region, how it affects the ongoing battles…
Note: The lines of control on the map are very approximate and in no way accurately reflect the situation on the ground. It is simply my best guess on what it may look like on the ground based on reliable reports and visual confirmations. As time goes by, and the fog of war dissipates, we will begin to gain a clearer idea of what the frontline looks like and who controls what.
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I'm going to be out all day today, so there won't be many posts sorry. Anyway, it's probably a good idea for me to take a short break from reporting.
Tomorrow I plan to cover the Shahed drone attacks (if there are any) live.
Tomorrow I plan to cover the Shahed drone attacks (if there are any) live.
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Ballistics were launched from Rostov at Dnipro. Explosions were reported in the city.
No map because I’m reporting from my phone.
No map because I’m reporting from my phone.
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AMK Mapping
Ballistics were launched from Rostov at Dnipro. Explosions were reported in the city. No map because I’m reporting from my phone.
Local Dnipro channels report that traces of air defence can be seen in the sky from a downed target.
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For the next few hours I will be reporting on Ukrainian and Russian missile and drone strikes live.
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AMK Mapping
Explosions in Sumy
2 Shaheds are flying west of Myrhorod in the direction of Cherkasy Oblast, southwestern course.
1 Shahed is flying south in the direction of Poltava city.
1 Shahed is crossing the border between Kharkiv and Poltava Oblast, southwestern course.
1 new Shahed has been launched from Kursk and is flying to Sumy Oblast.
1 Shahed is flying south in the direction of Poltava city.
1 Shahed is crossing the border between Kharkiv and Poltava Oblast, southwestern course.
1 new Shahed has been launched from Kursk and is flying to Sumy Oblast.
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