I agree with the points made here, but the Ukrainian command has proven time and time again that they won't adapt to the rapidly evolving battlefield conditions, either effectively to the point where it makes a major difference, or at all.
Additionally, if this line is stretched to the point where this thread suggests, Ukraine will have to bring significant reinforcements from other parts of the frontline, which massively weakens critical areas. This will happen no matter where you pull reinforcements from, just because of the sheer quantity of everything needed to hold a solid line in Sumy Oblast.
If Ukraine brings up more mobilised personnel, it won't change much except give them more "meat" for the grinder and lower the overall morale. Ukraine lacks experienced personnel and without them, the line will not hold.
And who knows if Russia will choose to open up new fronts in other areas, whether that be in Sumy, Kharkiv or even Chernihiv Oblast. They certainly have the numbers to do so.
https://x.com/Playfra0/status/1930590508377632991
Additionally, if this line is stretched to the point where this thread suggests, Ukraine will have to bring significant reinforcements from other parts of the frontline, which massively weakens critical areas. This will happen no matter where you pull reinforcements from, just because of the sheer quantity of everything needed to hold a solid line in Sumy Oblast.
If Ukraine brings up more mobilised personnel, it won't change much except give them more "meat" for the grinder and lower the overall morale. Ukraine lacks experienced personnel and without them, the line will not hold.
And who knows if Russia will choose to open up new fronts in other areas, whether that be in Sumy, Kharkiv or even Chernihiv Oblast. They certainly have the numbers to do so.
https://x.com/Playfra0/status/1930590508377632991
X (formerly Twitter)
Playfra (@Playfra0) on X
Way up North, #Russia 🇷🇺 opened a new front at #Sumy, hoping to get close enough to the city to control its supply routes and shell it, but #Ukraine 🇺🇦 is opposing fierce resistance, aided by the strong brigades and natural obstacles.
🧵Thread 🧵1/⬇️
🧵Thread 🧵1/⬇️
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AMK Mapping
A Su-57 launched what was likely a Kh-59 cruise missile at the Korebelnyi District of Kherson City. An explosion was heard.
It turns out that a FAB-1500 Glide-bomb was used rather than a Kh-59. It targeted the Regional State Administrative building again.
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AMK Mapping
According to new information, at least 2 of these 4 Tu-95s were equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Ukrainka Airbase. These 4 bombers are ones which weren't previously used in attacks on Ukraine, were situated deep in the rear, and were primarily used…
3 Tu-95s departed from Olenya Airbase in Murmansk Oblast, and are flying south to Engels-2 Airbase in Saratov Oblast to be equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. This suggests that only 1 of the 4 Tu-95s that arrived from Ukrainka yesterday was equipped with missiles. Once equipped with missiles, the 3 Tu-95s will probably all make a return trip to Olenya.
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Last night, a combined missile and drone strike was carried out on Kharkiv Oblast. 2 Kh-35 cruise missiles impacted an unknown target in the city, while an Iskander-M ballistic missile hit something in the area of the city of Chuhuiv, possibly related to the airbase used for long-range UAV launches and tactical aircraft refueling there.
16 Russian Geran-2 drones also attacked Kharkiv Oblast. ~12 of these targeted Kharkiv City, of which at least 9 made impacts. 2-3 impacts were recorded at residential buildings in Slobidskyi district, with officials stating that 19 people were injured, including 4 children.
Impacts were also recorded in the Kyivskyi district of the city, and at an industrial zone the town of Vasyshcheve, with NASA FIRMS data picking up a fire the latter. This exact area was previously targeted on April 30, 2025, where a Nova Poshta postal warehouse was hit. It seems one of the buildings next-door was the target this time.
16 Russian Geran-2 drones also attacked Kharkiv Oblast. ~12 of these targeted Kharkiv City, of which at least 9 made impacts. 2-3 impacts were recorded at residential buildings in Slobidskyi district, with officials stating that 19 people were injured, including 4 children.
Impacts were also recorded in the Kyivskyi district of the city, and at an industrial zone the town of Vasyshcheve, with NASA FIRMS data picking up a fire the latter. This exact area was previously targeted on April 30, 2025, where a Nova Poshta postal warehouse was hit. It seems one of the buildings next-door was the target this time.
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As many as 20 Russian Geran-2 drones attacked Odesa Oblast last night. At least 6 impacts were recorded, including 1 in Bilhorod Dnistrivskyi, 2 in Vyshneve and 3 in Chornomorsk. One of the targets was a school in Vyshneve, however I couldn't find any information on it.
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AMK Mapping
Iskander from Taganrog to Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro.
Disappeared. There was another missile before this which also disappeared.
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AMK Mapping
Unconfirmed reports of an F-16 being shot down in Sumy Oblast.
24 hours later, neither side has made any comments on any F-16 shootdown. The information is likely fake.
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The IDF has issued evacuation orders for 4 (!) locations in the Lebanese capital of Beirut, urging civilians to evacuate more than 300m away from the highlighted areas. They claim that Hezbollah infrastructure is there. Airstrikes on these areas are imminent.
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