Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (Fren Bobbie)
🇺🇦🇷🇺📝 With the frontline inching ever closer and two of the three defensive lines in front of the city having been broken through, let's talk about the importance of Pokrovsk.
🔸 Pokrovsk is located in the western Donbass, on the M30 highway. The Donbass is often depicted as the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts, but that is not correct -- the Donets Coal Basin stretches all the way to Pavlograd in Dnepropetrovsk oblast. The M30 highway connects Donetsk to Pokrovsk to Pavlograd to Dnepropetrovsk; it is also the main route from Kiev to Donetsk. It is the central supply artery for all supply that reaches the Ukrainian forces in the Donbass (there's still the M03 from Kharkov, but it's less convenient and has always been secondary, particularly for the southern half of the Donbass).
🔸 When it was further from the frontlines, Pokrovsk was a perfect operational rear for the AFU in the Donbass, capable of quickly supplying Ukrainian troops near Donetsk, Gorlovka, and Artemovsk/Bakhmut. It has a perfect connection to the AFU's strategic rear in Pavlograd (you may remember various Russian air strikes against railway infrastructure in Pavlograd).
🔸 West of Pokrovsk, there are a hundred kilometers of nothing. Empty steppes until you hit Pavlograd in the northwest, Zaporozhye in the southwest. There are various operations RuAF could employ after capturing Pokrovsk; we will look at them later, when the deed is actually done. But what's important is that it opens up operational space for the Russian "Center" group and gives them freedom of movement.
🔸 Additionally, Pokrovsk is a major railway hub, and is located on one of the two rail arteries that can be used to supply the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and control over it would unlock the entire Donbass railway junction for Russia.
🔗 RWA
🔸 Pokrovsk is located in the western Donbass, on the M30 highway. The Donbass is often depicted as the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts, but that is not correct -- the Donets Coal Basin stretches all the way to Pavlograd in Dnepropetrovsk oblast. The M30 highway connects Donetsk to Pokrovsk to Pavlograd to Dnepropetrovsk; it is also the main route from Kiev to Donetsk. It is the central supply artery for all supply that reaches the Ukrainian forces in the Donbass (there's still the M03 from Kharkov, but it's less convenient and has always been secondary, particularly for the southern half of the Donbass).
🔸 When it was further from the frontlines, Pokrovsk was a perfect operational rear for the AFU in the Donbass, capable of quickly supplying Ukrainian troops near Donetsk, Gorlovka, and Artemovsk/Bakhmut. It has a perfect connection to the AFU's strategic rear in Pavlograd (you may remember various Russian air strikes against railway infrastructure in Pavlograd).
🔸 West of Pokrovsk, there are a hundred kilometers of nothing. Empty steppes until you hit Pavlograd in the northwest, Zaporozhye in the southwest. There are various operations RuAF could employ after capturing Pokrovsk; we will look at them later, when the deed is actually done. But what's important is that it opens up operational space for the Russian "Center" group and gives them freedom of movement.
🔸 Additionally, Pokrovsk is a major railway hub, and is located on one of the two rail arteries that can be used to supply the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and control over it would unlock the entire Donbass railway junction for Russia.
🔗 RWA
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Following the blowing of the two bridges over the Seym river at the settlements of Glushkovo and Zvannoe, it is highly likely in my opinion that Ukrainian forces will advance across the international border and attempt to capture all of the territory south of the river.
Ukrainian forces have likely captured or are contesting the settlement of Krasnooktyabr'skoe, which lies on the eastern bank of the Seym river at the end of the spearhead shown on the map. Additionally, Russian milblogger "Romanov" claimed that Ukrainian forces destroyed the third and final bridge over the river (Bridges are circled in red on the map).
If both of these reports are true, then it would essentially cut off the Russian groupings in the southern portion of Glushkovsky district and would make future Ukrainian offensive operations here much easier to conduct.
However, the fact that Ukrainian forces already control the dominant heights south of the international border means that it would have been a downhill advance anyway, and the blowing of the bridges will be the final nail in the coffin for southern Glushkovsky district for the time being.
The good news for Russia is that the northern bank of the Seym river is much, much more elevated than the southern bank, meaning that it would be very difficult for the AFU to accumulate in the settlements along the southern bank due to the Russians having fire control and surveillance over them.
Evacuations of all civilians in the Glushkovsky district are already underway, with the Russian command likely having already anticipated the blowing of the bridges following the AFU reaching the Seym river.
Ukrainian forces have likely captured or are contesting the settlement of Krasnooktyabr'skoe, which lies on the eastern bank of the Seym river at the end of the spearhead shown on the map. Additionally, Russian milblogger "Romanov" claimed that Ukrainian forces destroyed the third and final bridge over the river (Bridges are circled in red on the map).
If both of these reports are true, then it would essentially cut off the Russian groupings in the southern portion of Glushkovsky district and would make future Ukrainian offensive operations here much easier to conduct.
However, the fact that Ukrainian forces already control the dominant heights south of the international border means that it would have been a downhill advance anyway, and the blowing of the bridges will be the final nail in the coffin for southern Glushkovsky district for the time being.
The good news for Russia is that the northern bank of the Seym river is much, much more elevated than the southern bank, meaning that it would be very difficult for the AFU to accumulate in the settlements along the southern bank due to the Russians having fire control and surveillance over them.
Evacuations of all civilians in the Glushkovsky district are already underway, with the Russian command likely having already anticipated the blowing of the bridges following the AFU reaching the Seym river.
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Over the past 36 hours, Ukrainian forces have likely withdrawn across the Vovcha river to their fortifications on the western bank. The next day, Russian forces reportedly advanced and took control over the abandoned positions in the fields and treelines
This is likely in anticipation of further Russian advances behind the Vovcha river in the direction of Kalynove. It does also put Ukrainian formations in the fortifications near Komyshivka at a significant risk of encirclement against the Vovcha river.
This was the next step in the Russian plan of collapsing the frontline from Karlivka to Mykolaivka in the direction of Selidove. I expect evacuation orders for civilians will begin in Selidove in the near future.
This is likely in anticipation of further Russian advances behind the Vovcha river in the direction of Kalynove. It does also put Ukrainian formations in the fortifications near Komyshivka at a significant risk of encirclement against the Vovcha river.
This was the next step in the Russian plan of collapsing the frontline from Karlivka to Mykolaivka in the direction of Selidove. I expect evacuation orders for civilians will begin in Selidove in the near future.
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Reliable reports indicate that Russian forces advanced from Zaliznyanske to positions within 1.6km of the village of Bodarne, capturing a small, forested area.
If true, this would put Ukrainian formations to the east in a salient.
However, it is currently unknown whether this is the beginning of a larger push north, or if this is just an opportunity that was seized by the Russians. I'm more inclined to believe the latter as I haven't heard of any major troop concentrations here or any redeployments of units.
If true, this would put Ukrainian formations to the east in a salient.
However, it is currently unknown whether this is the beginning of a larger push north, or if this is just an opportunity that was seized by the Russians. I'm more inclined to believe the latter as I haven't heard of any major troop concentrations here or any redeployments of units.
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Reliable reports indicate that Russian forces have advanced across the O0532 road and captured Ukrainian positions near the village of Vodyane, coming within ~670m of the southern dachas.
This significantly affects the defence of Vuhledar as the O0532 road was the last paved road supplying the town. There are two other main dirt roads which run through the fields north of Vuhledar, however when it enters the rainy season, resuppliment will become essentially impossible and positions in Vuhledar will become untenable.
This significantly affects the defence of Vuhledar as the O0532 road was the last paved road supplying the town. There are two other main dirt roads which run through the fields north of Vuhledar, however when it enters the rainy season, resuppliment will become essentially impossible and positions in Vuhledar will become untenable.
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There are reports of Ukrainian MLRS being active in Sumy Oblast. Launches are possible in the near future.
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AMK Mapping
Over the past 36 hours, Ukrainian forces have likely withdrawn across the Vovcha river to their fortifications on the western bank. The next day, Russian forces reportedly advanced and took control over the abandoned positions in the fields and treelines …
Literally less than an hour later, evacuation orders were issued for Selidove and Myrnohrad. Called it.
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4 Tu-95s took off from Olenya airfield on a southern course.
Ukrainian channels report that this is likely redeployment to Engels airfield, but there is still a chance that this is a combat mission. I will keep you all updated as information comes out.
Ukrainian channels report that this is likely redeployment to Engels airfield, but there is still a chance that this is a combat mission. I will keep you all updated as information comes out.
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AMK Mapping
4 Tu-95s took off from Olenya airfield on a southern course. Ukrainian channels report that this is likely redeployment to Engels airfield, but there is still a chance that this is a combat mission. I will keep you all updated as information comes out.
Still flying in the direction of Engels airfield. Probably redeployment.
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2 more villages in the Pokrovsk direction have fallen. Zavitne and Novozhelanne.
A map update will be released tomorrow.
A map update will be released tomorrow.
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AMK Mapping
Still flying in the direction of Engels airfield. Probably redeployment.
Ukrainian monitor channels report that some activity on the radio of the Tu-95s suggest that it might be a combat mission.
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Ukrainian monitor channels report that there is a high probability of a combat sortie taking place.
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A Russian reconnaissance UAV is over/near Voznesensk. Repeated launches are possible.
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