Reports of another Kalibr carrier being deployed from Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai to the waters of the Black Sea. Waiting on confirmation.

New Gerans from Khalino Airbase enter Sumy Oblast.

This missile attack on Ukraine is highly unlikely to be the response to Ukraine's operation spiderweb, by the way. It may seem large, but it's not much different to the usual strike nights.

A lot of people are asking me about the so-called "failed Oreshnik launch".

Hate to break the trend of clickbait and grifting on twitter, but this wasn't an Oreshnik.

1. No Ukrainian channels reported any launches. They would be going crazy if they did and air raid alerts would be activated in all regions of Ukraine.

2. RS-26 launchers with Oreshniks are stationed in Astrakhan Oblast. The missile would have to be flying east to reach Astana in Kazakhstan, where the footage was filmed.

3. Russia isn't going to launch another Oreshnik. The first launch was to sew fear in Ukraine and the West to say: "we are willing to launch another if we feel we need to". It's a form of phycological warfare.

4. The claim originated from a single Russian telegram channel. Others then regurgitated the claim, before it spread to twitter where click baiters, grifters and disinformation spreaders began declaring it as a failed launch to Ukraine.

5. Scenes like this are seen all over the world, usually due to space debris. We are only seeing this specific instance everywhere because of its location, and the fact that everyone is trying to push the idea that Putin will "launch an Oreshnik" or "nuke Ukraine", because of Ukraine's operation Spiderweb.

People naturally like drama, and that results in disinformation being spread. Many do it intentionally, many do it accidentally or out of ignorance. Make sure to use common sense and factcheck news that looks questionable.

No changes to the 2 Tu-95s from Olenya Airbase. They are still flying to the launch lines in Engels district in Saratov Oblast, although may reach them later than previously expected.

2 Tu-160 strategic bombers departed from Engels-2 Airbase in Saratov Oblast.

Due to them taking a different path than usual, they are still ~40 minutes away from the Engels launch lines. The other 4 Tu-95s from Engels-2 Airbase are still circling in Saratov Oblast.

Current situation regarding the strategic bombers:

2 Tu-95s from Olenya fly southeast through the Republic of Mordovia to the launch lines in Engels district, Saratov Oblast.
4 Tu-95s from Engels-2 circle in Saratov Oblast, awaiting the 2 from Olenya.
2 Tu-160s are airborne from Engels-2. They may be redeploying to another airbase.
2 Tu-160s from Belaya redeploy to Olenya, flying northwest through Arkhangelske Oblast.

Possible repeated launches of Geran-2 drones from the Tsumbulova Test Site in Oryol Oblast.

The 2 Tu-160s from Engels-2 Airbase are flying south to their launch lines in the Caspian Sea.

Departure of a 3rd Tu-160 from Engels-2 Airbase. It seems there were more redeployments which I and others didn't hear of.

Russian Geran-2 drones are now attacking Ozerne Airbase in Zhytomyr Oblast. Impacts have been recorded.

The first 2 Tu-160s are over the Caspian Sea now, approaching the launch lines.

It turns out these are the ones from Belaya Airbase, which were supposedly redeploying to Olenya. That means that the other 3 Tu-160s airborne may also be following.

The 3 Tu-160 departures from Engels-2 may be related to Ukrainian UAVs flying to the region.

Iskander threat from Liski, Voronezh Oblast.

High threat of launches

Possible Iskander launch from Voronezh. Clarifying.

Iskander threat from Kursk.

Power outages in Kyiv from the Geran strikes

5 Iskander launches