Possible launches of Geran-2 drones from Khalino Airbase in Kursk Oblast.

Departure of a 4th Tu-22M3 from Engels-2 Airbase

All 5 Tu-95s from Olenya are airborne.

5 Tu-95s fly southeast to Vologda Oblast. They will arrive at their second set of launch lines in Engels district of Saratov Oblast in ~1 hour 55 mins. They probably won't launch at the first set of launch lines in Penza Oblast.

4 Tu-22M3s are entering Rostov Oblast and will be at their first set of launch lines in Rostov District in ~10 minutes.

REMEMBER: Launch maneuvers can be simulated.

Possible repeated launches of Geran-2 drones from the Navlya Test Site in Bryansk Oblast. Currently there are over 120 Gerans in Ukrainian airspace.

The explosions heard in Kyiv are NOT from Geran-2 strikes. It is air defence working south of the city on Gerans transiting through the region to Khmelnytskyi Oblast.

The 4 Tu-22M3s are approaching their launch lines in Rostov Oblast.

Possible repeated launches of Geran-2 drones from the Tsumbulova Test Site in Oryol Oblast.

The Tu-22M3s flew past their launch lines in Rostov Oblast. No launch maneuvers were carried out. They have changed course to the west/southwest, and will arrive at their next and last launch lines west of Sevastopol, Crimea in ~40 mins.

Unidentified missile in Sumy Oblast

Flying to Trostyanets, Sumy Oblast

Its a cruise missile. Flying further to Okhtyrka.

Flying further to Poltava Oblast. Western course.

Over Zin'kiv, Poltava Oblast.

Its probably a Kh-59/69 cruise missile. Course is unchanged, flying to Lubny, Poltava Oblast.

Possible repeated launches of Geran-2 drones from Khalino Airbase in Kursk Oblast.

Possible repeated launches of Geran-2 drones from the Navlya test site in Bryansk Oblast

It disappeared northeast of Myrhorod, Poltava Oblast, probably shot down.

If Russia stops now, Ukraine will actually have a 100% interception rate!

There's a lot of conflicting information regarding the whereabouts of the Tu-22M3s right now. Some are saying near Luhansk, some say near the Caucasus, and others say closer to Kerch. I'm waiting for it to clear up.

As of now, there are ~140 Geran-2 drones in Ukrainian airspace. The previous record of Gerans in the airspace simultaneously was ~160.