It disappeared northeast of Myrhorod, Poltava Oblast, probably shot down.

If Russia stops now, Ukraine will actually have a 100% interception rate!

There's a lot of conflicting information regarding the whereabouts of the Tu-22M3s right now. Some are saying near Luhansk, some say near the Caucasus, and others say closer to Kerch. I'm waiting for it to clear up.

As of now, there are ~140 Geran-2 drones in Ukrainian airspace. The previous record of Gerans in the airspace simultaneously was ~160.

The Tu-22M3s seem to be maneuvering, flying close to Luhansk and then back to Krasnodar Krai and Yeisk. They may have received orders to prolong their flight time.

The first Gerans have reached the far west of Ukraine, and are flying to Dubno, Rivne Oblast.

Almost all the Gerans are flying to the western regions of Ukraine. The Kh-101s will almost certainly strike there.

Specifically: Lutsk, Rivne, Starokostyantyniv, Khemlnytskyi

Plus new Gerans are constantly flying in. This is the biggest drone attack on Ukraine of the war.

The 5 Tu-95s have entered Vladimir Oblast, and are ~45 mins from the launch lines in Engels district, Saratov Oblast.

The Tu-22M3s are back on course, approaching Yalta, Crimea. They should launch in less than 10 minutes.

Correction: they have already flown past Yalta. Approaching launch lines.

They flew southeast to the waters ~120km south of Sevastopol. They seem to be using new launch lines.

Launches of Kh-22 missiles from the Tu-22M3s

Only 2 have performed launch maneuvers so far

The missiles are flying to Odesa Oblast

Tuzly to be specific

100km out

Another missile follows close behind the first.

And a third behind the second

The first Kh-22 impacted Zmiiny Island, which hosts an AFU garrison.