1 more flies in

Impacted the island

All clear for missiles right now.

1 more flying to Zmiiny Island

Impacted Zmiiny Island

That was the last one. All 4 Tu-22M3s have made a U-turn, and are flying back to Engels-2 Airbase in Saratov Oblast.

As for the Tu-95s, they are still flying southeast, and are now over Saransk Oblast, approaching the first set of launch lines in Penza Oblast. They probably won't launch here and will fly to the 2nd set of launch lines in Engels district of Saratov Oblast, which they will reach in ~35 mins.

Currently, there are ~120 Gerans still in Ukrainian airspace.

Kh-31P launch from a Su-30.

Flying to Zatoka, Odesa Oblast

Another one follows close behind

They are flying low over the Black Sea. Northwestern course

Disappeared near Teplodar, Odesa Oblast. Likely impacts.

What we have so far:

4 Kh-22 cruise missile launches to Snake/Zmiiny Island, all impacting.
2 Kh-31P anti-radar missile launches to Teplodar, Odesa Oblast, both impacting.
1 Kh-59/69 cruise missile launch to Myrhorod, Poltava Oblast. Shot down.

The Tu-95s conducted launch maneuvers from their launch lines in Penza Oblast. We will find out if they were simulated or real launches in 50-70 mins.

All 5 Tu-95s conducted launch maneuvers, rather than just a portion of them. The launches were likely real, but let's wait and see.

~100 Gerans in Ukrainian airspace.

4 Su-34/35s departed from Engels-2 Airbase. They will either escort the Tu-95s or launch KABs or Kh-59/69/31Ps at Sumy Oblast.

The 5 Tu-95s entered Saratov Oblast, approaching their next set of launch lines in Engels district.

They flew past their launch lines and are now approaching their 3rd set of launch lines in Volgograd Oblast, flying on a southeastern course.

Geran-2 drones are attacking Ozerne Airbase in Zhytomyr Oblast.