2 Russian Kalibr-carriers have been deployed to the waters of the Black Sea from the Novorossiysk Naval Base. Total possible salvo of 16 Kalibr cruise missiles.

Explosions were heard in western Tehran. Likely Israeli drone strikes.

Unidentified missile to Kharkiv Oblast

Flying to Stary Saltiv from the north.

Mixed up with Russian MLRS shelling of the border areas.

Multiple Iranian sources are reporting ballistic missile launches to Israel. Nothing is confirmed as of now.

Iranian air defence is active in Sanandaj, northwestern Iran.

Both Tasnim and IRIB reported launches, however no Israeli sources commented on it.

The Haifa Oil Refinery stated that they have shut down all facilities due to the extensive damage, including the power plant responsible for part of the steam and electricity production, caused by the Iranian ballistic missile strikes,

No sirens were activated in Israel. Probably just informational warfare.

Some are claiming that Soumar long-range cruise missiles and drones were launched, rather than ballistics.

The Russians have now activated a masker on the combat frequency.

A number of Tu-95MS strategic bombers departed from Olenya Airbase in Murmansk Oblast, flying south towards their launch lines. The total number of bombers airborne is currently unknown, but the number should become clearer later on.

Iranian Shahed-136 drones were heard flying over Syria and Iraq.

What is likely a cruise missile was heard flying over Iraq.

Sirens sound in the southern Golan Heights due to the threat of drones.

The drone was intercepted by an Israeli fighter jet.

2 Tu-95s are now confirmed to be airborne.

Activity on the frequencies used by Tu-95MS strategic bombers at Engels-2 Airbase in Saratov Oblast has been recorded. Departures of bombers from here will likely take place at some point in order to link up with the group flying south from Olenya.

Currently, at least 2 Tu-95s continue their flight south through the Republic of Karelia.

Estimated time until they reach each set of launch lines:

Mokshansky District, Penza Oblast: ~1 hr 55 mins.
Engels District, Saratov Oblast: ~2 hrs 20 mins
Kalachyovksy District, Volgograd Oblast: ~2 hrs 50 mins
Limansky District, Astrakhan Oblast (Caspian Sea): ~3 hrs 30 mins.

Remember, when launch maneuvers are carried out, it does not necessarily mean missiles have actually been launched. Launch maneuvers can be simulated with dummy warheads or electronic warfare. We will only know if the launches are real if either sightings are reported from Russia, or once if they reach Ukrainian airspace.

Most real launch maneuvers do not take place from the launch lines in Mokshansky District, Penza Oblast.