It's now been approximately 8 days since the above post, and another major development has occurred in the operation to collapse the last section of Ukraine's Siverskyi-Donets Line in the Kostyantynivka direction.

A couple of days ago, Russian forces were able to complete the capture of Stupochky. They already controlled around 2/3s of the village, and the southern houses were essentially just one big kill zone which Ukrainian forces constantly brought reinforcements to, who were subsequently killed and wounded by superior Russian FPV drone and artillery fire.

Russian forces have now managed to capture this last part of the village and will now be able to begin the final attacks to bypass the remaining Ukrainian fortifications on the western bank of the Siverskyi Donets Canal. This will finally complete an operation which was supposed to have begun in April 2023, but was delayed due to Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive and the Russian deciding to refocus on the Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Novopavlivka and Velyka Novosilka directions.

I believe that this localised collapse along the canal could occur sooner rather than later, as the Russians began softening up the defence of the village of Predtechyne (southwest of Stupochky) via artillery bombardment and drone strikes way before the assault on Stupochky even began. Soon the forces from the south and north will link up at the low-lying ground, and Ukrainian forces will have to withdraw west towards the approaches to the city of Kostyantynivka.

One of the main issues Ukraine had with holding this line, and that we will continue to witness, is an operation Russian forces began near the beginning of the year to hunt and destroy Ukrainian FPV drone, Hexacopter (Baba Yaga), and Octocopter launch points, as well as mortar positions. The reinforcement of the lines with new Ukrainian drone operators and mortar positions had begun significantly affecting the ability for the Russians to advance, however it appears that this operation has begun to show its results.

Additionally, Russian airstrikes have begun targeting the highway from Kostyantynivka much more often, where most reinforcements are brought down, while artillery crews target the transportation of Ukrainian mortar crews to their positions.

Overall, all of this will result in the cohesive defence of Kostyantynivka being significantly weakened. Depending on the situation on the nearby fronts (i.e. west of Kostyantynivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove and Chasiv Yar), we could see the distance closed to the city sooner than many expect.