Additional Russian advance towards Razine and the rear of Pokrovsk.


Russian forces are now within 8km of the main logistics route into Pokrovsk.

The city will likely be breached from the front (south) as the defense in the city is hollowed out.

One important question with this is: how much effort will Ukraine put into defending the city? One of the things I always say is that the future of different sectors of the frontline are often dependent on many uncontrollable variables, one of which being the situation on and the prioritization of other sectors. It’s one of the reasons why predictions are often so inaccurate.

As I said yesterday, we may be reaching a point soon where Russia can make large successful pushes for prolonged periods of time in 3 directions, rather than just 2. This will undoubtably have a major effect on the final defence of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration.

1 Iskander-M ballistic missile impacted the Odesa Port a short time ago.

Russian forces have captured the village of Mykolaivka, Kostyantynivka direction, Donetsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~644
Total land area: ~1.27km²

This advance means that the Russians have broken out of Chasiv Yar, and are now advancing west along the tactical heights towards the city of Druzhkivka.

The remaining Ukrainian positions in southern Chasiv Yar are now in a salient.

Russian air defence is active in Donetsk City against Ukrainian HIMARS. Additionally, Su-24 / MiG-29s are flying to their launch lines, possibly to launch Storm Shadow Cruise missiles.

Makiivka, Donetsk Oblast right now

Storm Shadows in the direction of Millerovo Airbase, Rostov Oblast

Russian S-300/400s are active at Millerovo

At least 2 Storm Shadows were shot down on the approaches to Millerovo Airbase. There were likely others.

1 unidentified missile flew south through Donetsk Oblast. It's unclear if this is just MLRS or a cruise missile.

It disappeared, probably just MLRS. The threat of Storm Shadows for different regions is now beginning to be lifted.

A "security incident" is occurring in eastern Khan Younis, southern Gaza, meaning Israeli soldiers have been killed and/or wounded by Palestinian factions. An Israeli evacuation helicopter has landed at the scene.

An explosion occurred at Erbil International Airport in Iraq. Sirens are sounding in the U.S. consulate in the city.