Thanks for tuning in everyone! I hope to do this again in the future, and maybe even do live reporting for events like missile attacks. It was cool to talk about Ukraine rather than type out lengthy analyses for once.

Last night for the first time ever, a Russian missile attack was carried out from Belaya Airbase in Irkutsk Oblast. 2 Tu-95s flew a total of 3,800km with the support of 2 IL-78 tanker aircraft, before launching ~9 Kh-101s at the usual Engels District launch lines in Saratov Oblast.

The Tu-95s and IL-78s then proceeded to land at Engels-2 Airbase. This is yet another example of Russian tactics changing involving strategic bomber movements and launches, with the goal of sewing further confusion in Ukraine.

Apparently some people mass reported the channel, resulting in YouTube terminating it. Impossible for me to have circumvented any previous bans as I have never been banned before lol.

YouTube moderation being a joke as usual. I have appealed it, but I don't expect anything to come of it. I have a back-up channel which I will post if the appeal gets denied.

Good news! The channel was reinstated by YouTube after around 10 hours. Thanks for putting pressure on them, I hope to livestream there again sometime in the future.

Remember that as the flanks of a pocket begin to fold the bottom of the bag, which is supporting and withstanding the most pressure, becomes the weakest.

We seen it in almost every similarly sized example, Pokrovsk will be no different.

The Russians have infiltrated southern Pokrovsk, specifically the Kalynivka and Skakhtarskyi Districts, multiple times in the past (mostly with DRGs). We know they had the ability to reach and enter the first houses of Pokrovsk last year, so they most certainly retain that ability and will be able to do this with more ease considering the currently supply situation for Ukraine.

Additionally, it's plausible that Russian forces will infiltrate southern Myrnohrad from the village of Mykolaivka, although this are outside southern Myrnohrad is more fortified than the area outside southern Pokrovsk.

Russian forces have captured the village of Yablunivka, Kostyantynivka direction, Donetsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~811.
Total land area: ~6.62km².

Russian forces have captured the village of Fedorivka, Pokrovsk direction, Donetsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~64.
Total land area: ~0.68km².

Iskander threat from Bryansk. Possible launches to Kyiv soon.

No threat to Kyiv Oblast.

Judging by recent movements in Russia and shipments of missiles to airbases, there is an increased threat of Iskander-M ballistic missile launches from OTRK installations in Bryansk, Kursk and Voronezh Oblasts in the next 48 hours.

The installations in Bryansk Oblast (Northeast of Kliintsy and near Bryansk City, among others) are primarily used to target Kyiv Oblast. The installations near Liski, Voronezh Oblast often target Kyiv too, but can also target Pavlohrad, Dnipro, Kremenchuk and Poltava. As for the ones in Kursk Oblast, they generally target Sumy and Poltava Oblasts.

The threat of launches from installations at the Kuzimsky Tank Training Ground in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, and elsewhere near Taganrog, as well as from the various installations in Crimea (Armyansk, Simferopol, Yevpatoriya, Dzhankoi, etc) is lesser, but also higher than usual.

As many as 600 Geran-2 drones may be launched by Russia tonight.

So far, launches have been recorded from the following areas (not all are confirmed):

Primorsko Akhtarsk Airbase, Krasnodar Krai.
Shatalovo Airbase, Smolensk Oblast.
Navlya Test Site, Bryansk Oblast.
Khalino Airbase, Kursk Oblast.
Tsumbulova Test Site, Oryol Oblast.
Cape Chauda, Crimea.
Millerovo Airbase, Rostov Oblast.
Eastern Donetsk Oblast.

The majority of drones are expected to be launched from Millerovo and Shatalovo Airbases, and repeated launches from any of these aforementioned areas is expected.

Interestingly, a new launch point in Donetsk Oblast is now being used. This is to account for significantly increasing production rates of Gerans.

Additionally, launches of Kh-101 cruise missiles from Tu-95s which are currently believed to be redeploying to accompany the drones is possible.

Over the past few days, Ukrainian officials (including Zelensky) have reported on Russian DRG activity on the approaches to Pokrovsk, however, today reports from Ukrainian telegram channels corroborate these claims.

Reports suggest that attacks on Pokrovsk are taking place from three main directions: Zvirove, Pishchane and Shevchenko. There are rumours that Russian soldiers (likely DRGs) infiltrated ~3.6km into Ukrainian-controlled territory, entering Jubilee Park, as outlined on the map.

Russian forces have recaptured the village of Popiv Yar, Kostyantynivka direction, Donetsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~120
Total land area: ~0.50km²