Russian forces have captured the village of Varachyne, Yunakivka direction, Sumy Oblast.
Pre-war population: ~62.
Total land area: ~0.30km².
Pre-war population: ~62.
Total land area: ~0.30km².
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Russian forces have captured the village of Bila Hora, Kostyantynivka direction, Donetsk Oblast.
Pre-war population: ~78.
Total land area: ~1.53km².
Pre-war population: ~78.
Total land area: ~1.53km².
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Ukrainian forces have captured the village of Mykolaivka, Pokrovsk direction, Donetsk Oblast.
Pre-war population: ~364.
Total land area: ~0.56km²
Pre-war population: ~364.
Total land area: ~0.56km²
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In the Bilopillya direction, Russian forces continued to advance and last week managed to cross the international border, entering the village of Ryzhivka.
After establishing control over most of Tetkino, Russian forces pushed southwest cross the international border from the area of the Tetkino Train Station and established a foothold in the first two streets of Rhyzhivka.
Ryzhivka and Tetkino are effectively the same village and seamlessly merge at the border, making assault operations the same as any other village in Ukraine.
+ ~0.49km² in favour of Russia.
After establishing control over most of Tetkino, Russian forces pushed southwest cross the international border from the area of the Tetkino Train Station and established a foothold in the first two streets of Rhyzhivka.
Ryzhivka and Tetkino are effectively the same village and seamlessly merge at the border, making assault operations the same as any other village in Ukraine.
+ ~0.49km² in favour of Russia.
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In the Khotin direction, over the past five days Ukraine has been conducting a new operation aimed at recapturing the village of Kindrativka.
After a previous failed attempt at encircling the Russians from the north, Ukrainian soldiers managed to re-infiltrate the northern houses of the village which were previously in the grey zone, while other forces which had been building up on the tactical heights to the west for over a week advanced east towards the centre of the village.
Due to this combined pressure, along with assault operations from the south (unclear if these succeeded), and extensive artillery shelling, Russian forces had to withdraw from the southern and and southwestern parts of the village, pulling back to the centre as well as over the tributary of the Loknya River.
Ukrainian soldiers attempted to infiltrate to the eastern houses of the village prior to this Russian withdrawal but were hit by FAB glide-bombs. FABs also targeted almost every part of the village held by the AFU, causing significant casualties among their forces and slowing their advance.
Russian FAB glide-bombs then struck the bridge between the two reservoirs, connecting the centre to the eastern part of the village, to complicate further Ukrainian movement west. The remaining Russian soldiers were then withdrawn from the village centre.
Despite this extensive bombardment, Ukrainian soldiers managed to cross the tributary and establish positions in a few houses in the northwest of the village. The Russians tried to cut off the Ukrainians in the northwest by attacking to the northern street from the area of the reservoirs but were forced to retreat back after encountering heavy resistance, indicating further Ukrainian reinforcements have been getting brought in.
At the same time, Ukrainian forces had to withdraw from the gulley west of Kindrativka back to the treeline to the south, after being hit by over a dozen FABs and failing to consolidate. It's likely that this was a diversionary attack for the main operation on Kindrativka from the west, tying up Russian forces and complicating their movement in and out of the village.
+ ~4.95km² in favour of Ukraine.
After a previous failed attempt at encircling the Russians from the north, Ukrainian soldiers managed to re-infiltrate the northern houses of the village which were previously in the grey zone, while other forces which had been building up on the tactical heights to the west for over a week advanced east towards the centre of the village.
Due to this combined pressure, along with assault operations from the south (unclear if these succeeded), and extensive artillery shelling, Russian forces had to withdraw from the southern and and southwestern parts of the village, pulling back to the centre as well as over the tributary of the Loknya River.
Ukrainian soldiers attempted to infiltrate to the eastern houses of the village prior to this Russian withdrawal but were hit by FAB glide-bombs. FABs also targeted almost every part of the village held by the AFU, causing significant casualties among their forces and slowing their advance.
Russian FAB glide-bombs then struck the bridge between the two reservoirs, connecting the centre to the eastern part of the village, to complicate further Ukrainian movement west. The remaining Russian soldiers were then withdrawn from the village centre.
Despite this extensive bombardment, Ukrainian soldiers managed to cross the tributary and establish positions in a few houses in the northwest of the village. The Russians tried to cut off the Ukrainians in the northwest by attacking to the northern street from the area of the reservoirs but were forced to retreat back after encountering heavy resistance, indicating further Ukrainian reinforcements have been getting brought in.
At the same time, Ukrainian forces had to withdraw from the gulley west of Kindrativka back to the treeline to the south, after being hit by over a dozen FABs and failing to consolidate. It's likely that this was a diversionary attack for the main operation on Kindrativka from the west, tying up Russian forces and complicating their movement in and out of the village.
+ ~4.95km² in favour of Ukraine.
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In the Yunakivka direction, Russian forces continued to advance and have made significant progress west of Yunakivka over the past 10 days.
Russian forces advanced on a wide front from the village of Novomykolaivka to Yunakikva. The first assault operations were centred on establishing a presence on the eastern bank of the Snahist River. Using Yablunivka as the main staging ground, Russian forces cleared the rest of the forest and seized the forest plantations on the eastern bank.
From there, they crossed the bridge at the Novomykolaivka - Yablunivka road, establishing control over the forest and pushing up the adjacent treeline. Other forces then crossed the fields to Varachyne, where fierce battles ensued for the eastern houses. Russian forces exploited Ukraine's weakened forward position northwest of Varachyne and was able to push from Novomykolaivka to the intersection of three treelines, applying additional pressure on the Ukrainian soldiers in Varachyne.
Eventually Russian soldiers captured the village, and established full control over the treelines to the north. The soldiers on the eastern bank of the Snahist River continued to push south and reached the next forested area near the source of the river.
+ ~11.80km² in favour of Russia.
Russian forces advanced on a wide front from the village of Novomykolaivka to Yunakikva. The first assault operations were centred on establishing a presence on the eastern bank of the Snahist River. Using Yablunivka as the main staging ground, Russian forces cleared the rest of the forest and seized the forest plantations on the eastern bank.
From there, they crossed the bridge at the Novomykolaivka - Yablunivka road, establishing control over the forest and pushing up the adjacent treeline. Other forces then crossed the fields to Varachyne, where fierce battles ensued for the eastern houses. Russian forces exploited Ukraine's weakened forward position northwest of Varachyne and was able to push from Novomykolaivka to the intersection of three treelines, applying additional pressure on the Ukrainian soldiers in Varachyne.
Eventually Russian soldiers captured the village, and established full control over the treelines to the north. The soldiers on the eastern bank of the Snahist River continued to push south and reached the next forested area near the source of the river.
+ ~11.80km² in favour of Russia.
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In the Velykyi Burluk direction, Russian forces crossed the international border at a new point and captured the village of Dehtyarne.
Russian froces advanced from the areas of the villages of Savvin and Gaevka in Belgorod Oblast, crossing the international border at the northernmost point of Kharkiv Oblast, and began clearing Dehtyarne and the surrounding areas.
The village didn't have much of a Ukrainian presence in the first place, making the advances much easier, however the Russians still took at least 2 days to clear and secure the area.
+ ~16.70km² in favour of Russia.
Russian froces advanced from the areas of the villages of Savvin and Gaevka in Belgorod Oblast, crossing the international border at the northernmost point of Kharkiv Oblast, and began clearing Dehtyarne and the surrounding areas.
The village didn't have much of a Ukrainian presence in the first place, making the advances much easier, however the Russians still took at least 2 days to clear and secure the area.
+ ~16.70km² in favour of Russia.
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In the Velykyi Burluk direction, Russian forces continued to expand their incursion zone into Kharkiv Oblast, and entered the village of Ambarne.
Russian forces advanced from their positions in the forest plantations, clearing the rest of the positions north of the village, before entering its first houses. Fighting ensued with the Ukrainian garrison stationed there, although it is unclear if the Russians were able to gain a foothold.
+ ~0.59km² in favour of Russia.
Russian forces advanced from their positions in the forest plantations, clearing the rest of the positions north of the village, before entering its first houses. Fighting ensued with the Ukrainian garrison stationed there, although it is unclear if the Russians were able to gain a foothold.
+ ~0.59km² in favour of Russia.
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In the Kupyansk direction, both Russian and Ukrainian forces have advanced, capturing various positions at the eastern-most edge of Ukraine's northern bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Oskil River.
Around 5 days ago, Ukrainian forces began a series of counterattacks aimed at regaining control over the trench networks on the tactical heights in the area of the road-bridge over the railway tracks. They advanced east along the railway line, utilising the cover from the windbreaks on either side of the tracks to infiltrate Russian trench positions and dugouts, recapturing them and reaching the main trench strongpoints at the bridge.
Once this strongpoint was under Ukrainian control, and positions had been recaptured in the adjacent forest, small groups of Ukrainian soldiers moved east across the open fields and infiltrated the southeastern part of Stepova Novosilka at two points.
Meanwhile, Russian soldiers slightly improved their positions to the north, crossing a gulley and establishing control over a small treeline to the west.
+ ~2.28km² in favour of Ukraine.
+ ~0.33km² in favour of Russia.
Around 5 days ago, Ukrainian forces began a series of counterattacks aimed at regaining control over the trench networks on the tactical heights in the area of the road-bridge over the railway tracks. They advanced east along the railway line, utilising the cover from the windbreaks on either side of the tracks to infiltrate Russian trench positions and dugouts, recapturing them and reaching the main trench strongpoints at the bridge.
Once this strongpoint was under Ukrainian control, and positions had been recaptured in the adjacent forest, small groups of Ukrainian soldiers moved east across the open fields and infiltrated the southeastern part of Stepova Novosilka at two points.
Meanwhile, Russian soldiers slightly improved their positions to the north, crossing a gulley and establishing control over a small treeline to the west.
+ ~2.28km² in favour of Ukraine.
+ ~0.33km² in favour of Russia.
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In the Borova direction, both Russian and Ukrainian forces have been advancing on the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast sides of the border.
Russian forces advanced in two areas. In the northeast, they captured positions in two treeline in Luhansk Oblast, and completed the capture of the forest in Donetsk Oblast, forcing a Ukrainian withdrawal back to the Kharkiv side of the Kharkiv-Donetsk-Luhansk tri-border intersection.
To the southwest, Russian forces improved their positions north of Ridkodub, advancing down two treelines and capturing a third. They also entered the northern edge of the agricultural complex on the northern outskirts of Ridkodub, but it is unclear if they were able to recapture any positions there.
Ukrainian forces advanced in two areas. In the east, they continued to advance east through the village of Ridkodub and recaptured the local administrative building, as well as further houses on Tsentralna Street. They also re-entered the northeastern street of the village, capturing the western end of it. Russian forces no longer maintain a significant presence in Ridkodub, and mainly cover it with drones and artillery while holding a foothold in the eastern houses.
In the west, Ukrainian forces eliminated the Russian bridgehead on the western bank of the Nitrius River in Karpivka, and crossed over at the same point between the reservoirs. They were able to establish their own bridgehead on the eastern bank of the river, and advanced northeast, pushing Russian soldiers out of the northern part of the village. Despite this progress, their presence in the northern houses isn't significant enough to safely move across the other bridge between the reservoirs, despite it being under their control.
+ ~2.32km² in favour of Russia.
+ ~2.08km² in favour of Ukraine.
Russian forces advanced in two areas. In the northeast, they captured positions in two treeline in Luhansk Oblast, and completed the capture of the forest in Donetsk Oblast, forcing a Ukrainian withdrawal back to the Kharkiv side of the Kharkiv-Donetsk-Luhansk tri-border intersection.
To the southwest, Russian forces improved their positions north of Ridkodub, advancing down two treelines and capturing a third. They also entered the northern edge of the agricultural complex on the northern outskirts of Ridkodub, but it is unclear if they were able to recapture any positions there.
Ukrainian forces advanced in two areas. In the east, they continued to advance east through the village of Ridkodub and recaptured the local administrative building, as well as further houses on Tsentralna Street. They also re-entered the northeastern street of the village, capturing the western end of it. Russian forces no longer maintain a significant presence in Ridkodub, and mainly cover it with drones and artillery while holding a foothold in the eastern houses.
In the west, Ukrainian forces eliminated the Russian bridgehead on the western bank of the Nitrius River in Karpivka, and crossed over at the same point between the reservoirs. They were able to establish their own bridgehead on the eastern bank of the river, and advanced northeast, pushing Russian soldiers out of the northern part of the village. Despite this progress, their presence in the northern houses isn't significant enough to safely move across the other bridge between the reservoirs, despite it being under their control.
+ ~2.32km² in favour of Russia.
+ ~2.08km² in favour of Ukraine.
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In the Lyman direction, Russian forces continued to advance towards the Zherebets River and captured additional positions east of the village of Torske.
They advanced south down a treeline to the northwestern edge of the Serebryanskyi Forest, before entering and establishing a foothold in it. Russian forces also improved their positions further west, capturing additional trenches in the small forests in the low-lying ground.
+ ~1.40km² in favour of Russia.
They advanced south down a treeline to the northwestern edge of the Serebryanskyi Forest, before entering and establishing a foothold in it. Russian forces also improved their positions further west, capturing additional trenches in the small forests in the low-lying ground.
+ ~1.40km² in favour of Russia.
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In the Siversk direction, Russian and Ukrainian forces have been advancing, capturing various positions east and northeast of Siversk.
Ukrainian forces recaptured most of the rest of their previously lost positions east of Siversk, establishing control over various trench fortifications south of the Plotka River. They reached and captured a small treeline north of Verkhnokamyanske, while also approaching the village's northwestern houses.
Russian forces resumed their assault operations in the village of Serebryanka, and captured additional positions in the southeastern part, approaching a trench strongpoint from the northeast.
+ ~6.30km² in favour of Ukraine.
+ ~0.20km² in favour of Russia.
Ukrainian forces recaptured most of the rest of their previously lost positions east of Siversk, establishing control over various trench fortifications south of the Plotka River. They reached and captured a small treeline north of Verkhnokamyanske, while also approaching the village's northwestern houses.
Russian forces resumed their assault operations in the village of Serebryanka, and captured additional positions in the southeastern part, approaching a trench strongpoint from the northeast.
+ ~6.30km² in favour of Ukraine.
+ ~0.20km² in favour of Russia.
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Following recent developments around Pokrovsk, Ukrainian source Deepstate is now characterising the overall Ukrainian manpower situation as "catastrophic".
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A few hours ago, a Ukrainian Mirage-2000 fighter jet crashed in Volyn Oblast. The Ukrainian Airforce confirmed the incident, stating that the pilot ejected and was later found in stable condition. No air threats were in place for Volyn Oblast at the time, and the crash apparently occurred due to equipment failure.
This is the first Mirage-2000 to be lost by Ukraine. They recently started carrying out combat missions in eastern Ukraine, with one carrying out a launch maneuver over Slovyansk, Donetsk Oblast yesterday.
This is the first Mirage-2000 to be lost by Ukraine. They recently started carrying out combat missions in eastern Ukraine, with one carrying out a launch maneuver over Slovyansk, Donetsk Oblast yesterday.
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A good thread on the Kinzhal Aeroballistic missile. I agree with a lot of this, although I believe the actual speed is a little more than Mach 5, not due to delays in explosions but rather delays in detection due to them usually flying over border and lightly populated areas of Chernihiv Oblast.
Usually, we don't know about it until it is either approaching Kyiv Oblast or already over the region - sometimes even only when the explosion is heard in Kyiv from the Mach Cone phenomenon. I think it's probably closer to Mach 6, but that's just speculation.
@cym27s is a good person to follow. He's one of the two other main English-speaking missile trackers and does very similar work to me - but also at hours when I'm not online or asleep. Go get him to 9k followers, and also try to convince him to make a telegram channel lol.
Thread link: https://x.com/cym27s/status/1947592482172375112
Usually, we don't know about it until it is either approaching Kyiv Oblast or already over the region - sometimes even only when the explosion is heard in Kyiv from the Mach Cone phenomenon. I think it's probably closer to Mach 6, but that's just speculation.
@cym27s is a good person to follow. He's one of the two other main English-speaking missile trackers and does very similar work to me - but also at hours when I'm not online or asleep. Go get him to 9k followers, and also try to convince him to make a telegram channel lol.
Thread link: https://x.com/cym27s/status/1947592482172375112
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Russian forces have achieved a 6km breakthrough in the direction of the city of Dobropillya, and are now 12km northeast of Rodynske. It's unclear if consolidation has occurred in all areas, but Deepstate has corroborated reports by Russian sources that the Nove Shakhove - Shakhove road has been cut.
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I'd like to point something out regarding the recent DRG operations, and specifically the attached video showing a Russian sabotage operation deep inside Pokrovsk City.
This is nothing new - at least in the sense that these deep infiltrations behind the frontlines have been occurring for several months now. As I and many others have been pointing out for a long time, Ukrainian manpower problems will eventually reach a point where they are unable to contain Russian infantry. Right now, we are at the point where they cannot contain all DRGs and are failing to kill them within the required period of 12-24 hours.
DRGs have been constantly slipping behind Ukrainian lines simply because there are no soldiers to stop them in some areas. They utilise cover from treelines, windbreaks and the more lightly damaged settlements to evade being spotted by drones, and then carry out sabotage operations on Ukrainian positions multiple kilometres behind the frontline on unaware soldiers and commanders in temporary deployment points. This is what I mean when I point out how relying on one thing to hold parts of the frontline (drones) is not a good tactic nor a good sign as it significantly simplifies Russian assault operation - they don't have to account for as many factors.
Yes, the number of DRG operations in the Pokrovsk direction has significantly increased, but the main reason we are seeing this is because of how much attention Pokrovsk is getting right now. This is a common occurrence in weak sections of the frontline, and even sometimes much more stable sectors such as the frontline northwest of Bakhmut.
This is nothing new - at least in the sense that these deep infiltrations behind the frontlines have been occurring for several months now. As I and many others have been pointing out for a long time, Ukrainian manpower problems will eventually reach a point where they are unable to contain Russian infantry. Right now, we are at the point where they cannot contain all DRGs and are failing to kill them within the required period of 12-24 hours.
DRGs have been constantly slipping behind Ukrainian lines simply because there are no soldiers to stop them in some areas. They utilise cover from treelines, windbreaks and the more lightly damaged settlements to evade being spotted by drones, and then carry out sabotage operations on Ukrainian positions multiple kilometres behind the frontline on unaware soldiers and commanders in temporary deployment points. This is what I mean when I point out how relying on one thing to hold parts of the frontline (drones) is not a good tactic nor a good sign as it significantly simplifies Russian assault operation - they don't have to account for as many factors.
Yes, the number of DRG operations in the Pokrovsk direction has significantly increased, but the main reason we are seeing this is because of how much attention Pokrovsk is getting right now. This is a common occurrence in weak sections of the frontline, and even sometimes much more stable sectors such as the frontline northwest of Bakhmut.
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Yesterday, 3 Russian Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed from Engels-2 Airbase in Saratov Oblast to Ukrainka Airbase in Amur Oblast. These are three of the bombers which took part in the most recent combined missile attack on Ukraine. They have been equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles and are now carrying out a large-scale training mission with 2-3 other Tu-95s which were already stationed at Ukrainka.
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Russian forces have captured the village of Novotoretske, Pokrovsk direction, Donetsk Oblast.
Pre-war population: ~520.
Total land area: ~2.67km²
Pre-war population: ~520.
Total land area: ~2.67km²
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Russian forces have captured the village of Mayak, Pokrovsk direction, Donetsk Oblast.
Pre-war population: ~150.
Total land area: ~0.56km²
Pre-war population: ~150.
Total land area: ~0.56km²
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