A good thread on the Kinzhal Aeroballistic missile. I agree with a lot of this, although I believe the actual speed is a little more than Mach 5, not due to delays in explosions but rather delays in detection due to them usually flying over border and lightly populated areas of Chernihiv Oblast.

Usually, we don't know about it until it is either approaching Kyiv Oblast or already over the region - sometimes even only when the explosion is heard in Kyiv from the Mach Cone phenomenon. I think it's probably closer to Mach 6, but that's just speculation.

@cym27s is a good person to follow. He's one of the two other main English-speaking missile trackers and does very similar work to me - but also at hours when I'm not online or asleep. Go get him to 9k followers, and also try to convince him to make a telegram channel lol.

Thread link: https://x.com/cym27s/status/1947592482172375112

Russian forces have achieved a 6km breakthrough in the direction of the city of Dobropillya, and are now 12km northeast of Rodynske. It's unclear if consolidation has occurred in all areas, but Deepstate has corroborated reports by Russian sources that the Nove Shakhove - Shakhove road has been cut.

I'd like to point something out regarding the recent DRG operations, and specifically the attached video showing a Russian sabotage operation deep inside Pokrovsk City.

This is nothing new - at least in the sense that these deep infiltrations behind the frontlines have been occurring for several months now. As I and many others have been pointing out for a long time, Ukrainian manpower problems will eventually reach a point where they are unable to contain Russian infantry. Right now, we are at the point where they cannot contain all DRGs and are failing to kill them within the required period of 12-24 hours.

DRGs have been constantly slipping behind Ukrainian lines simply because there are no soldiers to stop them in some areas. They utilise cover from treelines, windbreaks and the more lightly damaged settlements to evade being spotted by drones, and then carry out sabotage operations on Ukrainian positions multiple kilometres behind the frontline on unaware soldiers and commanders in temporary deployment points. This is what I mean when I point out how relying on one thing to hold parts of the frontline (drones) is not a good tactic nor a good sign as it significantly simplifies Russian assault operation - they don't have to account for as many factors.

Yes, the number of DRG operations in the Pokrovsk direction has significantly increased, but the main reason we are seeing this is because of how much attention Pokrovsk is getting right now. This is a common occurrence in weak sections of the frontline, and even sometimes much more stable sectors such as the frontline northwest of Bakhmut.

Yesterday, 3 Russian Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed from Engels-2 Airbase in Saratov Oblast to Ukrainka Airbase in Amur Oblast. These are three of the bombers which took part in the most recent combined missile attack on Ukraine. They have been equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles and are now carrying out a large-scale training mission with 2-3 other Tu-95s which were already stationed at Ukrainka.

Russian forces have captured the village of Novotoretske, Pokrovsk direction, Donetsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~520.
Total land area: ~2.67km²

Russian forces have captured the village of Mayak, Pokrovsk direction, Donetsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~150.
Total land area: ~0.56km²

On the northeastern flank of Pokrovsk, Russian forces achieved a tactical breakthrough in multiple directions, blooming outwards from the area of the Kazenyi Torets River.

Russian forces initially began further expanding their bridgehead on the western bank of the river by spearheading an attack west down the treelines towards the south of Nykanorivka, capturing numerous positions there and in the forests to the southeast. Supporting attacks were made from the area of Mayak to secure the forested areas next to the reservoirs.

Russian forces were also able to consolidate their positions in southern Mayak, using them to expand further north and seize the rest of the village. Assault operations are now ongoing on the neighbouring village of Pankivka, which is currently in the grey zone. Outflanking attacks have already taken place west of Pankivka, with Russian forces achieveing a localised breakthrough towards the village of Nove Shakhove, where they captured numerous positions in the treelines and forest plantation on the tactical heights, while forward units cut the Nove Shakhove - Shakhove road and are now operating northeast of Nove Shakhove. Due to the fog of war, it is unclear if any positions were captured along the road itself, however.

Meanwhile, east of the Kazenyi Torets River, Russian forces completed the capture of the village of Novotoretske by advancing northwest from their positions behind the tributary of the Kazenyi Torets River. Then, taking advantage of Ukraine's critical manpower situation, the Russians broke through Ukrainian positions northwards, advancing along the road to Volodymyrivka, before reaching and capturing the main part of the village just south of Shakhove. Other forces made further progress to the southeast in the treelines on the tactical heights, and the adjacent forest plantations in the low-lying ground.

To the east of these breakthroughs, Russian forces improved their positions west of the village of Popiv Yar, and captured parts of the treelines outside the chalk quarry.

To the southwest of these breakthroughs - in the direction of Rodynske - Russian forces completed the capture of the village of Fedorivka, reaching the eastern outskirts of Zatyshok and seized additional positions in the nearby forest and treelines. Soldiers which had already consolidated in the treelines east of the Krasnolymanskaya Mine, advanced north to one of the ventilation shafts for the mine, capturing it and therefore linking up with the forces from Fedorivka.

+ ~31.54km² in favour of Russia.

One of the biggest breakthroughs since Ukraine in Kherson Oblast in 2022.

In the Kostyantynivka direction, Russian forces continued to advance and have made new progress in multiple areas.

Russian forces advanced in three areas. In the east, taking advantage of a large decrease in the size of the Ukrainian garrison holding Yablunivka, they intensified their attacks eastwards, breaking through Ukrainian positions and reaching the easternmost part of the village. As a result, the rest of the pocket south of the Bychok River was cleared from attacks from the south and west, a bridgehead was established north of the river in the northeastern part of Yablunivka, and the Russians completed its capture.

They then crossed the Kalynivka River, establishing a bridgehead in the central part of Oleksandro-Kalynove, cutting the village in half. Other forces from the south secured the western side of the village, linking up with the bridgehead, and improved their positions along a nearby treeline southeast of the settlement. The southeastern houses are currently in the grey zone, with Russian forces yet to clear them out.

To the northwest, Russian forces resumed their assault operations northwest of Yablunivka and captured a small forest. They also crossed a gulley, and established control over positions near the intersection of four treelines opposite their initial positions.

In the west, Russian forces advanced down both banks of the Poltavka River. They completed the capture of Popiv Yar, before moving north to the neighbouring village of Poltavka. The Russians were able to seize the western half of the village, establishing positions at the reservoir separating it from the eastern half, while also capturing further positions in the treelines and forest plantations south, southeast and southwest of Poltavka. Other forces advanced up the eastern bank of the Poltavka River, pushing north up a forested area to the southeastern outskirts of the village, and improved their positions in the forest plantation in the low-lying ground to the east.

+ ~12.93km² in favour of Russia.

Zelensky currently

Kyiv Independent: "Zelensky just betrayed Ukraine's democracy — and everyone fighting for it"

WOW it's almost as if people like me have been pointing out Zelensky isn't a good leader, but then automatically got accused of being Kremlin propagandists.

The blind and baseless talking points people rely on to maintain their narrative will continue crumble one by one.

But hey, as long as someone like Andrew Perptually Wrong admits that Zelensky is a terrible leader and individual it's all good... right?

Violent clashes have broken out between Cambodian and Thai troops on a disputed section of their border in the Ta Muen Thom area, involving light weapons, artillery shelling and Grad MLRS strikes.

Thai PBS news reported that Cambodian soldiers encroached near the border area, resulting in the Thai 2nd Army responding with artillery fire. On the other hand, Cambodian Armed Forces spokeswoman Mali Socheata stated that Cambodian forces repelled a Thai incursion over the border.

Thailand's education authority has shut down all educational facilities in the border area and activated emergency plans across the region. Meanwhile, evacuations of civilians are underway in nearby areas on the Cambodian side of the border.

Cambodian rockets continue to be fired over the border towards Thai positions.