Ukrainian channels report that Russia has likely "postponed" the combined missile attack that was supposed to take place on Ukraine tonight. The number of drone launches reflects that.

I've added my personal definitions for each direction to the Ukraine Map, all the way from Mykolaiv Oblast to the border with Belarus.

You can view this by ticking the bottom layer of the map (https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll=49.52120120158947%2C32.587373795927505&z=7).

Iskander on Krovelets, Sumy Oblast

Disappeared northeast of Baturyn, Chernihiv Oblast.

An explosion was heard from Konotop, Sumy Oblast.

According to clarified information, the explosion was not heard from Konotop, but rather somewhere further north. It appears this was an S-300 air defence missile, although no Ukrainian aircraft were detected in the region at the time.

There is a threat of Onyx cruise missile launches from western Crimea in the coming hours. A K-300P Bastion-P system has been placed on combat alert. The most likely targets would be Odesa and Mykolaiv Oblasts.

The villages of Orlivka and Novosil's'ke, and the surrounding area near the Romanian border in southern Odesa Oblast are currently under a massive Geran-2 drone attack.

Approximately 26 drones are involved.

In the Lyman direction, Russian forces continue to advance east of the Nitrius River and have entered the outskirts of Shandryholove.

Russian forces advanced in two areas. In the southeast, they continued to push southwest down the forest plantations in the low-lying ground, seizing new positions there and in the forested areas. Using the cover provided, they were able to enter the outskirts of Shandryholove and captured some of the agricultural buildings there. Battles are ongoing for the other buildings, with Ukrainian forces holding their main presence in the residential part of the village.

Russian forces also advanced to the east, capturing the rest of the gulley from Zelena Dolnya, before advancing to and clearing positions on the adjacent tactical heights.

In the northwest, Russian forces made additional progress down the eastern bank of the Nitrius River, advancing south to the next two forests, capturing them and two nearby treelines.

+ ~9.13km² in favour of Russia.

In the Lyman direction, Russian forces continued to advance in and around Torske, capturing key positions in multiple areas.

In the south, they continued to push through the northwestern part of the Serebryanskyi Forest, and managed to break into the southern part of Torske. They captured the agricultural buildings on the outskirts, and positions in the houses on and around Tsentralna and Radhospna Streets.

In the north, Russian forces continued to advance through the northern residential area, capturing additional positions on and around Pivnichna Street.

The main Ukrainian presences in Torske are in the central section and the fish-farm in the far north. The grey zone is large, with both sides regularly operating in small groups of 2-3s there with no solid line of contact.

+ ~4.95km² in favour of Russia.

In the Kostyantynivka direction, Russian forces continued to advance and completed the capture of Toretsk City.

Russian forces advanced in two areas. In the southwest, they continued their operations to clear the village of Shcherbynivka. After they captured the southern and main part of the village, they entered the northern part and began clearing the area of the railway line. Russian forces captured most of the rest of the village, including the local school. They were also able to clear the rest of the positions in the pocket west of Shcherbynivka due to the progress inside the settlement.

Further east, Russian forces cleared the remaining positions in western Toretsk after the last Ukrainian soldiers withdrew from the city and captured the rest of the adjacent Toretsk Forest.

In the northeast, Russian forces resumed their assault operations northwest of Dyliivka, and established control over positions on four different treelines on the tactical heights.

Additionally, in the west, Russian soldiers managed to enter the western part of Katerynivka, although it is unclear if any positions were established.

+ ~8.27km² in favour of Russia.

Regarding the situation in the Kostyantynivka direction:

Russian forces were able to break through from the heavily fortified terykon at the St. Matrona Mine, cut the railway line to Shcherbynivka, and come within 800 metres of cutting off all Ukrainian soldiers in the area to the south of the Kleban-Bykske reservoir.

All Ukrainian reinforcements to the villages of Shcherbynivka, Katerynivka and Kleban Byk are running down one road along the dam on the eastern edge of the reservoir, which the Russians are constantly targeting. This road is covered by a large trench strongpoint, which is also being constantly targeted by FPV drones and artillery.

Russian forces are also pressuring the edges of the salient, where they have infiltrated Katerynivka, almost captured Shcherbynivka, and pushed the Ukrainians away from the northern outskirts of Toretsk.

If this road is cut, large numbers of Ukrainian soldiers will be encircled against the reservoir.

If people haven't followed me on twitter, you should do that. I'm only 28 followers from 40k over there.

https://x.com/AMK_Mapping_

Thank you!

As Steve Witkoff has arrived back in Washington from his visit to Moscow, there is an increased chance of a large-scale combined Russian missile attack on Ukraine early tomorrow morning.

The video posted by Creamy Caprice is of a DRG. Even if it was a normal soldier, it wouldn't necessarily mean control over the area. Russian forces do not control Sobolivka or Moskovka, fighting is ongoing for the latter.

This soldier got this far because Ukraine doesn't have enough manpower here (and in many other sectors) to hold a cohesive defence, so they rely on drones - and drones miss things... constantly.

Even if an assault detachment slipped through Ukrainian lines and gained a foothold, Russia would really struggle in bringing in supplies and reinforcements to exploit it. It's why we (mostly) don't see deep penetrations with only a few soldiers, but rather prolonged, incremental and shallow attritional movements with overall larger groups of soldiers.

But hey, remember, according to those "super reliable" Russian channels who are now proudly displaying the "liberation" of new areas and the beginning of the encirclement of Kupyansk, Sobolivka should have been under Russian control on July 6!

It's almost as if many Russian channels, including the Russian Ministry of defence (which also reported this) are propaganda outlets not trying to show the true situation on the frontline! A lot of these channels are either catering to an audience, or on a payroll. The same goes for Ukrainian propaganda outlets, except they mostly use different tactics.

Here's approximately what the situation looks like:

Around 60% of Moskovka is under Russian control. Daily incremental progress is being made.

Sobolivka is behind Moskovka, and the highway to Kupyansk and Ukraine's Oskil bridgehead is further south. I think the location of the highway is one of the reasons why Russian channels are talking about Sobolivka so much.

As you know, DRGs are operating in Sobolivka. This is nothing new and has been ongoing for over a month. Ukraine doesn't hold much of a presence in the village and is likely mainly in the surrounding forests or in Kupyansk.

As for Kupyansk itself, don't be surprised if the Russians fail to consolidate on the edge of the city centre, and the Ukrainians take back certain areas. Ukraine still controls almost all of the high-rise buildings, making Russian movement difficult. The low-rise residential areas are the easiest to clear in a city like this - you will know why if you see what the interior of these soviet-era apartment blocks look like.

It will be interesting to see if Russia focuses more on cutting the highway south of Sobolivka, or in the city centre of Kupyansk.