If people haven't followed me on twitter, you should do that. I'm only 28 followers from 40k over there.

https://x.com/AMK_Mapping_

Thank you!

As Steve Witkoff has arrived back in Washington from his visit to Moscow, there is an increased chance of a large-scale combined Russian missile attack on Ukraine early tomorrow morning.

The video posted by Creamy Caprice is of a DRG. Even if it was a normal soldier, it wouldn't necessarily mean control over the area. Russian forces do not control Sobolivka or Moskovka, fighting is ongoing for the latter.

This soldier got this far because Ukraine doesn't have enough manpower here (and in many other sectors) to hold a cohesive defence, so they rely on drones - and drones miss things... constantly.

Even if an assault detachment slipped through Ukrainian lines and gained a foothold, Russia would really struggle in bringing in supplies and reinforcements to exploit it. It's why we (mostly) don't see deep penetrations with only a few soldiers, but rather prolonged, incremental and shallow attritional movements with overall larger groups of soldiers.

But hey, remember, according to those "super reliable" Russian channels who are now proudly displaying the "liberation" of new areas and the beginning of the encirclement of Kupyansk, Sobolivka should have been under Russian control on July 6!

It's almost as if many Russian channels, including the Russian Ministry of defence (which also reported this) are propaganda outlets not trying to show the true situation on the frontline! A lot of these channels are either catering to an audience, or on a payroll. The same goes for Ukrainian propaganda outlets, except they mostly use different tactics.

Here's approximately what the situation looks like:

Around 60% of Moskovka is under Russian control. Daily incremental progress is being made.

Sobolivka is behind Moskovka, and the highway to Kupyansk and Ukraine's Oskil bridgehead is further south. I think the location of the highway is one of the reasons why Russian channels are talking about Sobolivka so much.

As you know, DRGs are operating in Sobolivka. This is nothing new and has been ongoing for over a month. Ukraine doesn't hold much of a presence in the village and is likely mainly in the surrounding forests or in Kupyansk.

As for Kupyansk itself, don't be surprised if the Russians fail to consolidate on the edge of the city centre, and the Ukrainians take back certain areas. Ukraine still controls almost all of the high-rise buildings, making Russian movement difficult. The low-rise residential areas are the easiest to clear in a city like this - you will know why if you see what the interior of these soviet-era apartment blocks look like.

It will be interesting to see if Russia focuses more on cutting the highway south of Sobolivka, or in the city centre of Kupyansk.

Possible Storm Shadow cruise missile launches to the Kerch Bridge. UAVs and USVs attacked the bridge last night.

A Ukrainian reconnaissance drone observing Mariupol, nearly 100km from the frontline.

Iskander on Sumy Oblast

Disappeared near the international border

Double Iskander threat from Liski, Voronezh Oblast and Taganrog, Rostov Oblast.

Additional Iskander threat from Kursk Oblast.

Iskander on Izyum, Kharkiv Oblast

From Taganrog. Possible course to Chuhuiv/the airbase

Past Izyum, flying to Chuhuiv

Explosion in Chuhuiv