In the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces continued to advance and have captured new parts of Kupyansk city.
After a series of Ukrainian counterattacks, Russian forces regrouped on the northern edge of the city and began pushing south again. They were able to advance through the grey zone down the highway to the city centre, reaching Spartak Stadium and establishing control over a few high-rise buildings to the north. To the east, they advanced south down Michurina Street on the western bank of the Oskil River, with the grey zone now extending towards the highway over the Oskil River.
To the west, Russian forces were able to maintain control over southeastern Moskovka and used this plus the adjacent industrial zone to advance deeper into northwestern Kupyansk, taking up new positions on Teroborony and Dovhailivska Streets.
West of Kupyansk, a large grey zone has formed in and around Moskovka and Sobolivka due to extensive FPV drone activity from both sides, and a lack of fortifications. Both Russian and Ukrainian soldiers regularly operate in this area, with neither side holding a permanent presence here.
+ ~1.38 km² in favour of Russia.
After a series of Ukrainian counterattacks, Russian forces regrouped on the northern edge of the city and began pushing south again. They were able to advance through the grey zone down the highway to the city centre, reaching Spartak Stadium and establishing control over a few high-rise buildings to the north. To the east, they advanced south down Michurina Street on the western bank of the Oskil River, with the grey zone now extending towards the highway over the Oskil River.
To the west, Russian forces were able to maintain control over southeastern Moskovka and used this plus the adjacent industrial zone to advance deeper into northwestern Kupyansk, taking up new positions on Teroborony and Dovhailivska Streets.
West of Kupyansk, a large grey zone has formed in and around Moskovka and Sobolivka due to extensive FPV drone activity from both sides, and a lack of fortifications. Both Russian and Ukrainian soldiers regularly operate in this area, with neither side holding a permanent presence here.
+ ~1.38 km² in favour of Russia.
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In the Lyman direction, Russian forces continued their push southwards, capturing various new positions in three areas.
In the west, after cutting the Lyman - Shandryholove Road, Russian forces expanded their zone of control to the south, capturing new positions towards the southern outskirts of Shandryholove, as well as in the adjacent forest plantations.
To the east, Russian forces advanced further along the tactical heights east of Derylove. They pushed southwest down the treelines on the higher ground, while other forces cleared the forest plantations in the low-lying ground, forcing the Ukrainians to withdraw to the gulley north of Stavky.
In the west, after multiple failed attacks on Myrne, Russian forces began attempting to further bypass the village. They crossed the gulley southwest of Myrne, and captured the opposite treeline, while other forces spearheaded a new advance for 1.5 km south to the Zarichne - Drobysheve Road.
+ ~9.59km² in favour of Russia.
In the west, after cutting the Lyman - Shandryholove Road, Russian forces expanded their zone of control to the south, capturing new positions towards the southern outskirts of Shandryholove, as well as in the adjacent forest plantations.
To the east, Russian forces advanced further along the tactical heights east of Derylove. They pushed southwest down the treelines on the higher ground, while other forces cleared the forest plantations in the low-lying ground, forcing the Ukrainians to withdraw to the gulley north of Stavky.
In the west, after multiple failed attacks on Myrne, Russian forces began attempting to further bypass the village. They crossed the gulley southwest of Myrne, and captured the opposite treeline, while other forces spearheaded a new advance for 1.5 km south to the Zarichne - Drobysheve Road.
+ ~9.59km² in favour of Russia.
In the Siversk direction, following the stalling of Russian assault operations northeast of Siversk, Ukrainian forces carried out a series of counterattacks, aimed at alleviating pressure on the tactical heights northeast of the city.
Ukrainian forces advanced from positions north of the Plotka River, capturing a forested area and a trench fortification on the southeastern outskirts of Serebryanka. Additionally, they were able to re-enter the western houses of Serebryanka, and advanced east down the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River, reaching the northern part of the village.
+ ~4.64 km² in favour of Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces advanced from positions north of the Plotka River, capturing a forested area and a trench fortification on the southeastern outskirts of Serebryanka. Additionally, they were able to re-enter the western houses of Serebryanka, and advanced east down the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River, reaching the northern part of the village.
+ ~4.64 km² in favour of Ukraine.
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On the southern flank of Siversk, Russian forces restarted their assault operations around 5 days ago, and have made significant advances towards Siversk from the south.
Russian forces advanced in two areas. Most progress was made in the west, where they infiltrated from the area of Rozdolivka, through the southern part of Pereizne which was in the grey zone, to Fedorivka, where they captured the eastern part of the village. From there, Russian forces consolidated in southern Pereizne and pushed north through the village and up the parallel railway line. As of now, they have almost completely captured the settlement.
In the east, Russian forces advanced north along the tactical heights, capturing new positions along three parallel treelines towards Vyimka.
+ ~5.45 km² in favour of Russia.
Russian forces advanced in two areas. Most progress was made in the west, where they infiltrated from the area of Rozdolivka, through the southern part of Pereizne which was in the grey zone, to Fedorivka, where they captured the eastern part of the village. From there, Russian forces consolidated in southern Pereizne and pushed north through the village and up the parallel railway line. As of now, they have almost completely captured the settlement.
In the east, Russian forces advanced north along the tactical heights, capturing new positions along three parallel treelines towards Vyimka.
+ ~5.45 km² in favour of Russia.
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In the Dobropillya direction, both Russian and Ukrainian forces have been advancing, with both sides battling to gain the initiative.
After Ukrainian forces failed to cut off the remnants of the Russian salient, Russian forces regrouped south of Kucheriv Yar and attacked west. They were able to drive a wedge between Vilne and Nove Shakhove, capturing positions along three parallel treelines on the tactical heights, threatening Ukraine's position in Nove Shakhove.
To the south, Ukrainian forces continued to advance in Nykanorivka, and improved their positions in the central part of the village.
In the east, after weeks of battles, Ukrainian forces re-established full control over Volodymyrivka, pushing the Russians out of the southern streets of the village.
+ ~2.00 km² in favour of Russia.
+ ~1.31 km² in favour of Ukraine.
After Ukrainian forces failed to cut off the remnants of the Russian salient, Russian forces regrouped south of Kucheriv Yar and attacked west. They were able to drive a wedge between Vilne and Nove Shakhove, capturing positions along three parallel treelines on the tactical heights, threatening Ukraine's position in Nove Shakhove.
To the south, Ukrainian forces continued to advance in Nykanorivka, and improved their positions in the central part of the village.
In the east, after weeks of battles, Ukrainian forces re-established full control over Volodymyrivka, pushing the Russians out of the southern streets of the village.
+ ~2.00 km² in favour of Russia.
+ ~1.31 km² in favour of Ukraine.
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AMK Mapping
A media-silent Russian advance through Pokrovsk has been occurring for the past 10 days. Russian forces have reached the city centre.
In the Pokrovsk direction, over the past week Russian forces have continued to expand their zone of control inside the city and have made significant progress towards the city centre.
Russian forces advanced in two areas. In the north, they completed the capture of the southwestern streets of the city and crossed the E-50 Highway to the market district. They were able to rapidly capture the city central markets, reaching the city centre from the west. They also advanced southeast down the highway to the edge of the Shakhtarskyi District, and reached Yuvileynyy Park from the north. Additionally, the Russians completed the capture of the village of Troyanda, which was previously partially in the grey zone.
In the south, Russian forces advanced further east through the Kalynivka District, capturing additional positions in the low-rise residential buildings and the nearby dachas. They were also able to enter the southwestern part of the Lazurnyi District, establishing control over several high-rise buildings.
The main goal for Russia in Pokrovsk seems to be to reach the railway station in the northeastern part of the city. In the area of the railway station - north of the railway tracks - is a heavily fortified industrial area, which contains a network of bunkers and coal tunnels which stretch out to the rest of Pokrovsk. It is believed to be one of the largest underground tunnel systems in all of Europe.
+ ~2.00 km² in favour of Russia.
Russian forces advanced in two areas. In the north, they completed the capture of the southwestern streets of the city and crossed the E-50 Highway to the market district. They were able to rapidly capture the city central markets, reaching the city centre from the west. They also advanced southeast down the highway to the edge of the Shakhtarskyi District, and reached Yuvileynyy Park from the north. Additionally, the Russians completed the capture of the village of Troyanda, which was previously partially in the grey zone.
In the south, Russian forces advanced further east through the Kalynivka District, capturing additional positions in the low-rise residential buildings and the nearby dachas. They were also able to enter the southwestern part of the Lazurnyi District, establishing control over several high-rise buildings.
The main goal for Russia in Pokrovsk seems to be to reach the railway station in the northeastern part of the city. In the area of the railway station - north of the railway tracks - is a heavily fortified industrial area, which contains a network of bunkers and coal tunnels which stretch out to the rest of Pokrovsk. It is believed to be one of the largest underground tunnel systems in all of Europe.
+ ~2.00 km² in favour of Russia.
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In the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces resumed their assault operations southwest of Udachne and reached the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk regional border.
After improving their positions on the treeline southeast of Molodetske, Russian forces advanced west to the forest plantations and the treeline on the regional border. They gained a foothold in both and used the treeline to enter and capture positions in the southwestern houses of Molodetske.
+ ~2.15 km² in favour of Russia.
After improving their positions on the treeline southeast of Molodetske, Russian forces advanced west to the forest plantations and the treeline on the regional border. They gained a foothold in both and used the treeline to enter and capture positions in the southwestern houses of Molodetske.
+ ~2.15 km² in favour of Russia.
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Last night, a massive Russian Geran-2 drone attack was carried out on Dnipro. At least 30 impacts were recorded. One of the main targets seems to have been the Salyut Plant (48.527413, 35.093740), which has refrigeration units with ammonia, as well as fuel and oil storage.
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AMK Mapping
Another missile flying in the same direction
This one disappeared too. They are targeting the border area near Khotin.
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AMK Mapping
Another S-300 to Khotin
Two were launched here. Both impacted the same area near the frontline.
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Analysis on the Pokrovske-Prosyana direction (Part 1):
Since the fall of Vuhledar, Russian forces have been carrying out a concerted effort to collapse and capture the rest of Ukrainian-controlled south Donetsk Oblast. Now with that goal almost completed, the next goal for Russia in this direction is likely to seize two important settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: The city of Hulyaipole, and the town of Pokrovske.
Both Hulyaipole and Pokrovske are key logistical hubs for Ukrainian forces defending the line from Andriivka-Kletsove in Donetsk Oblast, to the eastern flank of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. However, Hulyaipole is the strongest of the two, and lies right next to the line of contact in an area that has seen little movement for over three years. Ukrainian forces have used this time to convert this city into a fortress that Russia would undoubtably take substantial losses if trying to storm head on. So naturally, Russia will likely carry out their usual strategy with cities like this: simply bypassing them and attacking from the less-fortified rear.
After the fall of Vuhledar in September 2024, the frontline entered a stage of collapse, as the Ukrainians didn't carry out a coordinated withdrawal and fallback from the city. This allowed for the Russians to simply keep advancing further and further, with their only difficult points being specific settlements with higher concentrations of Ukrainian manpower. This continued until they reached the outskirts of Velyka Novosilka, which after a second series of attacks (including coordinated efforts from the west), also fell quite quickly relative to its significance.
The fall of Velyka Novosilka marked a new era for the remnants of the south Donetsk front. It allowed for a refocusing of efforts west of the city after the remaining pockets of Ukrainian resistance south of the Vovcha River and east of the Mokri Yaly River were cleared. The fall of Velyka Novosilka led to the subsequent fall of Komar, and the establishment of a three-settlement line of key logistical hubs now used by Russia to attack even further west to achieve their new goals.
I have split this into three areas: 1, 2, and 3:
Area 1 is largely supplied by Komar, with its southern boundary forming the operational border between the Russian 36th and 6th Combined Arms Armies. Area 1 covers the remnants of the Ukrainian positions east of the Vovcha River, as well as south of Novopavlivka.
Area 2 is largely supplied by Velyka Novosilka, and covers the zone from the bend in the Vovcha River to the Yanchur River, and includes the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk tri-border point.
Area 3 is largely supplied by Staromylnivka, and covers the East-Zaporihzhzhia front, including Hulyaipole. It is the strongest and most stable section of this front.
But let's break this down further before looking at possible future movements.
Area 1 was previously the "easiest" section of this front for Russia. After they had properly established themselves west of the Mokri Yaly River, they were able to advance to the eastern bank of the Vovcha River. However, Komar's proximity to the frontline, and its position in what was at the time a more evident salient, made it difficult to transfer supplies through due to the presence of Ukrainian FPV drones. Ukrainian forces likely took advantage of this and exploited a lack of Russian consolidation in and around Andriivka-Klevtsove, Zelenyi Hai, and Olekandrohrad, to conduct a series of counterattacks towards the Mokri Yaly River. However, the presence of the Vovcha River made supply for the Ukrainians here difficult too, and the attacks eventually resulted in a withdrawal from their forward positions in and around Tolstoi. But to further cement Russia's presence in Area 1, Russian assault operations were carried out to the bend in the Vovcha River in order to further isolate Ukrainian positions east of the river, which brings us to Area 2.
(Part 2 below)
Since the fall of Vuhledar, Russian forces have been carrying out a concerted effort to collapse and capture the rest of Ukrainian-controlled south Donetsk Oblast. Now with that goal almost completed, the next goal for Russia in this direction is likely to seize two important settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: The city of Hulyaipole, and the town of Pokrovske.
Both Hulyaipole and Pokrovske are key logistical hubs for Ukrainian forces defending the line from Andriivka-Kletsove in Donetsk Oblast, to the eastern flank of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. However, Hulyaipole is the strongest of the two, and lies right next to the line of contact in an area that has seen little movement for over three years. Ukrainian forces have used this time to convert this city into a fortress that Russia would undoubtably take substantial losses if trying to storm head on. So naturally, Russia will likely carry out their usual strategy with cities like this: simply bypassing them and attacking from the less-fortified rear.
After the fall of Vuhledar in September 2024, the frontline entered a stage of collapse, as the Ukrainians didn't carry out a coordinated withdrawal and fallback from the city. This allowed for the Russians to simply keep advancing further and further, with their only difficult points being specific settlements with higher concentrations of Ukrainian manpower. This continued until they reached the outskirts of Velyka Novosilka, which after a second series of attacks (including coordinated efforts from the west), also fell quite quickly relative to its significance.
The fall of Velyka Novosilka marked a new era for the remnants of the south Donetsk front. It allowed for a refocusing of efforts west of the city after the remaining pockets of Ukrainian resistance south of the Vovcha River and east of the Mokri Yaly River were cleared. The fall of Velyka Novosilka led to the subsequent fall of Komar, and the establishment of a three-settlement line of key logistical hubs now used by Russia to attack even further west to achieve their new goals.
I have split this into three areas: 1, 2, and 3:
Area 1 is largely supplied by Komar, with its southern boundary forming the operational border between the Russian 36th and 6th Combined Arms Armies. Area 1 covers the remnants of the Ukrainian positions east of the Vovcha River, as well as south of Novopavlivka.
Area 2 is largely supplied by Velyka Novosilka, and covers the zone from the bend in the Vovcha River to the Yanchur River, and includes the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk tri-border point.
Area 3 is largely supplied by Staromylnivka, and covers the East-Zaporihzhzhia front, including Hulyaipole. It is the strongest and most stable section of this front.
But let's break this down further before looking at possible future movements.
Area 1 was previously the "easiest" section of this front for Russia. After they had properly established themselves west of the Mokri Yaly River, they were able to advance to the eastern bank of the Vovcha River. However, Komar's proximity to the frontline, and its position in what was at the time a more evident salient, made it difficult to transfer supplies through due to the presence of Ukrainian FPV drones. Ukrainian forces likely took advantage of this and exploited a lack of Russian consolidation in and around Andriivka-Klevtsove, Zelenyi Hai, and Olekandrohrad, to conduct a series of counterattacks towards the Mokri Yaly River. However, the presence of the Vovcha River made supply for the Ukrainians here difficult too, and the attacks eventually resulted in a withdrawal from their forward positions in and around Tolstoi. But to further cement Russia's presence in Area 1, Russian assault operations were carried out to the bend in the Vovcha River in order to further isolate Ukrainian positions east of the river, which brings us to Area 2.
(Part 2 below)
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