Keep in mind, unusually large numbers of cruise missiles are not expected to be launched tonight, despite how many bombers are airborne. It will likely be less than 40 Kalibrs, Kh-101s, and Kh-22s.

Explosions in Rivne and Volyn Oblasts. The first Geran-2 drones are beginning to strike their targets.

The Neptune missiles are flying towards Anapa, Krasnodar Krai. This is where the Russian Kalibr carriers are stationed.

5 Geran-2 drones just entered Polish Airspace.

Approximate flight routes. They are still very close to the border, but were on the Polish side at one point.

Polish F-16s are airborne in eastern Poland.

Updated map: the Gerans are now more than 20 km deep into Polish Airspace, heading for the city of Zamosc. Other drones are flying towards the border from Volyn Oblast.

Polish F-35 and F-16 fighters are still operating over eastern Poland. No attempts have been made to shoot down the drones.

There are discrepancies in tracking of the drones in Polish Airspace, likely due to a lack of reliable information. There will be a slight delay in my updates as I try to figure out what is flying where.

Initial reports of Polish fighter jets engaging the Gerans.

F-35s are beginning to shoot down the Gerans as they approach Zamosc. 2 interceptions have been reported.

Initial and very much unconfirmed reports of a drone strike on something near Zamosc, Poland.

Additional sources are reporting a Geran strike on something in Poland.

Reports of Polish ground-based air defence activity in eastern Poland.

3 additional Geran-2 drones have entered Polish Airspace.

8 drones are confirmed to have entered Polish Airspace.
2 have been shot down.
1 alleged impact.

Rzeszów Airport in Poland has been closed due to "unplanned military activity."

Updated map: 5-6 Geran-2 drones are currently detected in Polish airspace.

2-3 are flying towards Lublin from the southeast and east.

3 are flying towards Rzeszów from the northeast.

The reports of an impact are likely false, and probably mixed up with falling debris.

What do we think? 😁

Geran-2 drones are now entering Moldovan Airspace.

Additional Gerans are flying through Belarus towards Warsaw, Poland.