Around 98% of Ukrainian long-range UAVs get shot down by Russian air defence / EW. Ukraine often launches hundreds at a time just for a couple to get through.
The drones that do get through (usually only 1 or 2 each day), and that hit refineries do minor damage as evidenced by footage and satellite imagery, due to how refineries are built, and the drones' small warheads.
The damage done is then repaired within months due to how robust refineries are. This leads to only a temporary loss.
Meanwhile, the figures on Russian refining capabilities always get skewed to show total amount per refinery (per year), and not what is actually lost... which is only part of the refining capabilities for part of a year.
At the same time, everyone seems to be ignoring the hundreds of Russian Geran-2 drone STRIKES (not launches, strikes) per week that are hitting targets of military significance and contributing massively to the overall war of attrition.
But don't worry... just 50 more days and Russia will collapse.
The drones that do get through (usually only 1 or 2 each day), and that hit refineries do minor damage as evidenced by footage and satellite imagery, due to how refineries are built, and the drones' small warheads.
The damage done is then repaired within months due to how robust refineries are. This leads to only a temporary loss.
Meanwhile, the figures on Russian refining capabilities always get skewed to show total amount per refinery (per year), and not what is actually lost... which is only part of the refining capabilities for part of a year.
At the same time, everyone seems to be ignoring the hundreds of Russian Geran-2 drone STRIKES (not launches, strikes) per week that are hitting targets of military significance and contributing massively to the overall war of attrition.
But don't worry... just 50 more days and Russia will collapse.
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On the northern flank of Siversk, Russian forces continued to advance in the area of the Serebryanskyi Forest, developing their offensive towards Yampil.
Russian forces advanced in three areas. In the east, they continued to push along the northern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River, and advanced for around 900 metres towards the Donetsk-Luhansk regional border.
Further west, the Russians continued to attack towards the Ostrich farm on the northern outskirts of Yampil. The farm is now in the grey zone, as they begin bypassing it towards the railway station and railway bridge.
To the northwest, Russian forces physically cut the Yampil - Zarichne Road, establishing control over new positions in the forests there.
+ ~2.83 km² in favour of Russia.
Russian forces advanced in three areas. In the east, they continued to push along the northern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River, and advanced for around 900 metres towards the Donetsk-Luhansk regional border.
Further west, the Russians continued to attack towards the Ostrich farm on the northern outskirts of Yampil. The farm is now in the grey zone, as they begin bypassing it towards the railway station and railway bridge.
To the northwest, Russian forces physically cut the Yampil - Zarichne Road, establishing control over new positions in the forests there.
+ ~2.83 km² in favour of Russia.
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In the Lyman direction, Russian forces continued to advance in and around Zarichne, and have made additional progress towards connecting their bridgehead to the main Lyman front.
In the north, Russian forces improved their positions south of Kolodyazi, capturing new positions along two parallel treelines. They also captured additional positions in the forest west of Myrne, forcing the Ukrainians to withdraw back into the village.
In the south, Russian forces cleared the rest of central Zarichne, and connected with their bridgehead in the north of the village via Poshtova and Mayakovskoho Streets. Ukrainian forces are attempting to counterattack from the agricultural buildings on the western outskirts of the village, through the grey zone towards the centre.
In the southern part of Zarichne, after reaching the western outskirts, the Russians began pushing south down five residential streets towards the industrial zone in an attempt to squeeze Ukrainian forces out of the southern part of the settlement.
+ ~2.52 km² in favour of Russia.
In the north, Russian forces improved their positions south of Kolodyazi, capturing new positions along two parallel treelines. They also captured additional positions in the forest west of Myrne, forcing the Ukrainians to withdraw back into the village.
In the south, Russian forces cleared the rest of central Zarichne, and connected with their bridgehead in the north of the village via Poshtova and Mayakovskoho Streets. Ukrainian forces are attempting to counterattack from the agricultural buildings on the western outskirts of the village, through the grey zone towards the centre.
In the southern part of Zarichne, after reaching the western outskirts, the Russians began pushing south down five residential streets towards the industrial zone in an attempt to squeeze Ukrainian forces out of the southern part of the settlement.
+ ~2.52 km² in favour of Russia.
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In the Lyman direction, Russian forces continued their general push south towards Lyman, and have made significant progress over the past five days.
Russian forces advanced on a wide front from Kolodyazi to Derylove. They pushed south down the gulley towards Stavky, capturing new positions in the forested areas, and expanding their zone of control further west. In the direction of Derylove, Russian forces captured new treeline positions on the tactical heights, while other forces entered the Derylove gulley, establishing control over its eastern forests, beginning the efforts to dislodge the remaining Ukrainian soldiers from the gulley.
To the west, Russian forces captured the rest of the southern part of Shandryholove and crossed a tributary of the Nitrius River at one of the dams, establishing a foothold in the northern part of the treeline directly west of Derylove.
To the north, after consolidating along the Drobysheve - Shandryholove Road, the Russians began attacking north up Hutchenka Street, and west from the forest plantations, capturing the southern part of Shandryholove and pushing the Ukrainians to the centre of the village.
+ ~15.01 km² in favour of Russia.
Russian forces advanced on a wide front from Kolodyazi to Derylove. They pushed south down the gulley towards Stavky, capturing new positions in the forested areas, and expanding their zone of control further west. In the direction of Derylove, Russian forces captured new treeline positions on the tactical heights, while other forces entered the Derylove gulley, establishing control over its eastern forests, beginning the efforts to dislodge the remaining Ukrainian soldiers from the gulley.
To the west, Russian forces captured the rest of the southern part of Shandryholove and crossed a tributary of the Nitrius River at one of the dams, establishing a foothold in the northern part of the treeline directly west of Derylove.
To the north, after consolidating along the Drobysheve - Shandryholove Road, the Russians began attacking north up Hutchenka Street, and west from the forest plantations, capturing the southern part of Shandryholove and pushing the Ukrainians to the centre of the village.
+ ~15.01 km² in favour of Russia.
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In the Borova direction, both Russian and Ukrainian forces have advanced, with Russian forces continuing to expand their bridgehead west of the Nitrius River.
After establishing a foothold at the base of the tactical heights, Russian forces advanced along the gulley to the forests, capturing new positions in the direction of the village of Korovii yar. They also improved their positions along the treeline northwest of Serednje.
To the north, Ukrainian forces counterattacked at some point over the past few weeks and recaptured the southwestern part of Karpivka, pushing the Russians back over the Nitrius River.
+ ~5.75 km² in favour of Russia.
+ ~1.14 km² in favour of Ukraine.
After establishing a foothold at the base of the tactical heights, Russian forces advanced along the gulley to the forests, capturing new positions in the direction of the village of Korovii yar. They also improved their positions along the treeline northwest of Serednje.
To the north, Ukrainian forces counterattacked at some point over the past few weeks and recaptured the southwestern part of Karpivka, pushing the Russians back over the Nitrius River.
+ ~5.75 km² in favour of Russia.
+ ~1.14 km² in favour of Ukraine.
Forwarded from Hudson War Mapping - Reporting on the Ukraine War
According to Z Committee, Russian forces allegedly crossed the border in Kharkov oblast and neared the village of Odradne (Otradnoye).
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Hudson War Mapping - Reporting on the Ukraine War
According to Z Committee, Russian forces allegedly crossed the border in Kharkov oblast and neared the village of Odradne (Otradnoye).
Just south of the previous incursion where around 33 km² was taken.
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Russian Geran-2 drones attacked the city of Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast a short time ago. The number of impacts is currently unknown.
In the hours prior to the strikes, the city was under FPV drone and MLRS attacks.
In the hours prior to the strikes, the city was under FPV drone and MLRS attacks.
Zaporizhzhia City came under heavy MLRS shelling for the second consecutive day. At least 22 rockets hit three different parts of the southern suburbs and outskirts. A portion of the rockets had cluster munitions.
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Last night, Russian Geran-2 drones attacked targets in Donetsk Oblast. At least 9 drones were recorded over the region.
2+ impacts were recorded in Slovyansk.
The remaining drones flew to targets in the area of Kostyantynivka (frontline zone) and Oleksandrivka (far west of Donetsk Oblast).
2+ impacts were recorded in Slovyansk.
The remaining drones flew to targets in the area of Kostyantynivka (frontline zone) and Oleksandrivka (far west of Donetsk Oblast).
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Footage showing three Russian Geran-2 drone strikes on a warehouse complex in the village of Peremoha, Sumy Oblast. The warehouses were reportedly used for storing Ukrainian UAVs.
Coordinates: 51.54525, 33.94791
Coordinates: 51.54525, 33.94791
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Poor captured Ukrainian Baba Yaga drone is trying to fly away 😢
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The city of Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast, came under a Geran-2 drone attack this morning. There is an airbase there, however it's unclear if it was the target. A large fire can be seen burning from far away.
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AMK Mapping
The city of Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast, came under a Geran-2 drone attack this morning. There is an airbase there, however it's unclear if it was the target. A large fire can be seen burning from far away.
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The fire continues to burn through the morning, with the smoke being spread far away. Judging by the size of the fire, it could be at the oil depot next to Vasylkiv Airbase.
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Today, the IDF officially confirmed the beginning of their offensive to clear Gaza City. I'd like to give some context regarding this.
Many people seem to believe that Israel will be "entering" Gaza City today, but in reality, they have been operating within the city limits since March, and as Israel begins their offensive, they control approximately 46% of the city.
After Israel largely withdrew from Gaza city in 2024 to focus on the cities of Jabalia, Beit Lahiya, and Beit Hanoun to the north, and then from the Netzarim corridor during the ceasefire period in early 2025, many Gazans returned to their homes in the city. Unlike cities like Rafah, Gaza City was damaged but not flattened, meaning that it still had infrastructure for a large population.
But after Israel broke the ceasefire in March, they restarted their operations in the city and began clearing the eastern Shujaiyya, Kuba, and Al-Tuffah neighbourhoods which lie on higher ground overlooking Israel's border settlements. This meant that they were home to some of Al-Qassam's (Hamas) elite units. Due to the topography of the area, its proximity to the border, and the known substantial presence of militants, Israel aimed to create a buffer zone from the border. Over a period of several months, they slowly pushed deeper and deeper through the neighbourhoods, facing resistance in the form of ambushes, rocket attacks, and mortar shellings. However, a lack of coordination between militant cells, higher-quality equipment, and manpower, decreased the effectiveness of these attacks. Nevertheless, it ensured the IDF was more cautious and patient when clearing and demolishing the neighbourhoods, especially due to the known presence of some of the surviving elite Palestinian forces.
Last month, the IDF began a new series of attacks on the Al-Zeitoun neighbourhood, which included an unprecedented speed of demolition operations. This increased the percentage of the city that they controlled and largely eliminated one of the areas that Hamas and other groups had a relatively large presence there, further pressuring their overall presence in the city. This, combined with intensified operations in central Jabalia could result in a "squeezing" effect, where Israeli forces close in from three sides and isolate parts of the city to clear separately.
As for evacuations, the IDF stated that over 250,000 civilians have fled south, which they claim equates to approximately 40% of the city's population at the time. I suspect that a portion of Palestinian militants in the city also fled south to the central camps (Nuseirat, Maghazi, and Bureij) and the city of Deir Al-Balah, which contain some of the only areas Israel has not operated in yet during the course of this war. As a result, they are generally safer and hold more coordinated and substantial presences of fighters.
Before anyone starts commenting about me "whitewashing" a genocide, I'd like to say that this post is looking at the war purely from a military standpoint (war and genocide are not mutually exclusive). There is obviously a lot more to this offensive (and the war in general), but that is a whole other story.
Many people seem to believe that Israel will be "entering" Gaza City today, but in reality, they have been operating within the city limits since March, and as Israel begins their offensive, they control approximately 46% of the city.
After Israel largely withdrew from Gaza city in 2024 to focus on the cities of Jabalia, Beit Lahiya, and Beit Hanoun to the north, and then from the Netzarim corridor during the ceasefire period in early 2025, many Gazans returned to their homes in the city. Unlike cities like Rafah, Gaza City was damaged but not flattened, meaning that it still had infrastructure for a large population.
But after Israel broke the ceasefire in March, they restarted their operations in the city and began clearing the eastern Shujaiyya, Kuba, and Al-Tuffah neighbourhoods which lie on higher ground overlooking Israel's border settlements. This meant that they were home to some of Al-Qassam's (Hamas) elite units. Due to the topography of the area, its proximity to the border, and the known substantial presence of militants, Israel aimed to create a buffer zone from the border. Over a period of several months, they slowly pushed deeper and deeper through the neighbourhoods, facing resistance in the form of ambushes, rocket attacks, and mortar shellings. However, a lack of coordination between militant cells, higher-quality equipment, and manpower, decreased the effectiveness of these attacks. Nevertheless, it ensured the IDF was more cautious and patient when clearing and demolishing the neighbourhoods, especially due to the known presence of some of the surviving elite Palestinian forces.
Last month, the IDF began a new series of attacks on the Al-Zeitoun neighbourhood, which included an unprecedented speed of demolition operations. This increased the percentage of the city that they controlled and largely eliminated one of the areas that Hamas and other groups had a relatively large presence there, further pressuring their overall presence in the city. This, combined with intensified operations in central Jabalia could result in a "squeezing" effect, where Israeli forces close in from three sides and isolate parts of the city to clear separately.
As for evacuations, the IDF stated that over 250,000 civilians have fled south, which they claim equates to approximately 40% of the city's population at the time. I suspect that a portion of Palestinian militants in the city also fled south to the central camps (Nuseirat, Maghazi, and Bureij) and the city of Deir Al-Balah, which contain some of the only areas Israel has not operated in yet during the course of this war. As a result, they are generally safer and hold more coordinated and substantial presences of fighters.
Before anyone starts commenting about me "whitewashing" a genocide, I'd like to say that this post is looking at the war purely from a military standpoint (war and genocide are not mutually exclusive). There is obviously a lot more to this offensive (and the war in general), but that is a whole other story.
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