New SAR satellite images from October 10 show that Russia is continuing to expand the Navlya Training Ground in Bryansk Oblast, which is used to launch Geran-2 and Geran-3 drones.

Previously, launches of drones only took place from vehicles, with the drones being stored in three underground bunkers (each bunker can store approximately 200 drones). However, now ground-based static launchers have been constructed to the west of the main launchers, which take less time and resources for launching drones.

While it doesn't appear that this expansion is fully complete yet, we will likely see an increase in the number of drones launched from here in the near future. Additionally, Navlya is the only launch site north/northeast of Ukraine where Geran-3 jet drones can be launched.

Image credit:
StrategicaviationT on Telegram
Ukrainian_Intelligence on Telegram

At least 10 Israeli airstrikes targeted the town of Baisariyeh in southern Lebanon. The IDF claims that it was targeting Hezbollah facilities storing engineering equipment used to restore their military infrastructure.

Following the implementation of the ceasefire and the withdrawal of the IDF to the "yellow line", Hamas' internal security forces began deploying from the central and southern Gaza Strip to parts of Gaza City, Khan Younis, and Jabalia.

Here, they have begun attempts at re-establishing civil authority over non-occupied areas in preparation for the next steps of the peace plan. Clashes were reported in Jabalia al-Balad in Northern Gaza between Hamas and a Palestinian clan that was allowed to stay in place by Israel during their operations in Gaza City, and has subsequently been left over after the IDF withdrew. Arrests of other armed militants by Hamas has also taken place.

Kherson City is under heavy fire from Tornado-S MLRS, other types of MLRS, and artillery.

Unusual levels of attacks for this city.

Last time there was a ceasefire in Gaza, Israel launched Operation Iron Walls in the West Bank, where they began dismantling Palestinian militant infrastructure in several different towns and cities.

I'm wondering if we will see some other escalation elsewhere involving units pulled from Gaza.

Novhorod-Siverskyi in Chernihiv Oblast came under attack from Geran-2 drones last night. At least 5 impacts were recorded, although the target(s) are unknown.

So far, this image is the only visual evidence of the strikes.

Russian VKS-affiliated channel Fighterbomber reports that a Russian Ka-52 helicopter was lost. It's unclear if it was shot down or crashed. There is currently no other information available about it.

The 5 Tu-95MS strategic bombers that took off from Ukrainka Airbase yesterday did not redeploy to western Russia, and instead carried out large-scale training.

However, an An-124-100 "Ruslan" cargo plane landed at Engels-2 Airbase, which can carry up to 70 Kh-101 cruise missiles. We will likely see these 5 Tu-95MS redeploy from Ukrainka to Engels-2 in the coming days, in preparation for the next missile attack on Ukraine.

Donetsk vibes

Id like to make some general predictions regarding the future of Pokrovsk and its corresponding front. I've colour coded red as the first step of Russian advances, purple as the 2nd step and pink as the 3rd step. Ukrainian withdrawal is represented by blue and future Russian advances by orange. The first and most critical step for Russian forces is to seize the coal mine north of Udachnoye. This will serve as a critical base for Russian attacks to both Sergeyevka and Grishino. Once Russia secures the coal mine and consolidates, they can move NE to cut the E50 highway and put the O0525 under fire control. This will be in sync with russia taking Rodinskoye, allowing them to launch attacks and pressure the remaining routes into the city from both the SW and NE. Inevitably, the AFU will be forced to withdraw to more defensible positions by leaving Lysovka, Sukhyy Yar and Promon. (1/2)

Once the E50 and O0525 are cut, Pokrovsk will fall along with Grishino in Avdeyevka style fashion. From here, a very much Ocheretino-style push will occur, with Russian forces essentially steamrolling northeast to Dobropellya and Slavyanka. In the long term, by developing a significant breach of the final AFU defensive line, Russian forces will be able to sweep behind Kramatorsk and Druzhkovka, finally collapsing the Donbass. This post serves to educate people on how truly strategically crucial Pokrovsk is. (2/2)