Possibly in response to the recent Hezbollah rocket strikes on the Galillee region of Northern Israel, the Israeli air-force conducted airstrikes on the southern Lebanese city of Bint Jbeil. Smoke is seen rising over the city.

I'm taking the night off today to rest and work on non-Ukraine related things. Unless something major happens, don't expect any more posts today.

A reminder: my map has been updated despite reports not being published here, so if you want to access the frontline changes first, click here: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll=47.81180681268694%2C35.86711770000002&z=7

Explosions in Brovary, Kyiv Oblast. Geran attacks.

There are currently 7 Russian missile carriers in the black sea, with a total possible volley of up to 48 Kalibr missiles.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have advanced north of Ukrainsk and are bypassing the town from the north.

Here, Russian forces managed to take up positions in three parallel treelines, and are likely trying to cut the Selydove-Ukrainsk road, which is the last remaining sealed road which resupplies Ukrainsk.

It is possible that after cutting the road, the Russians will turn to the Terykon overlooking the town and attempt to capture it from behind, possibly with the goal of encircling the AFU inside the town, but in my opinion the chances are that Ukraine will withdraw before this happens, if it were to happen.

However, this advance does put Ukrainsk in a critical situation, and I believe that the town will probably fall in the next few days unless Ukraine can somehow temporarily stabilise the situation there.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have made significant progress in the Kurakhove direction and have completely closed the southern Krasnohorivka salient.

A large Russian mechanised assault with at least 12 vehicles pushed into the village of Hostre, where Russsian infantry dismounted and took up positions in the eastern buildings. Ukrainian forces responded by shelling the Russian vehicles and conducting FPV drone strikes on the vehicles and new Russian positions in the houses.

The fact that the Russians controlled the high-ground in the east simplified the offensive operations and allowed them to quickly close the salient. Ukrainian forces still hold positions in Hostre and near the reservoirs to the east of Kurakhove, and future Russian advances depend on whether assault operations are carried out in Maksymilyanivka soon.

A reliable source reported that Russian forces have continued to make substantial progress in Ukrainsk and have captured the majority of the town.

Russian forces have reportedly captured the rest of the southern dachas and advanced into the southern residential area. Meanwhile in the town centre, Russian forces reportedly captured the remaining 5 story buildings, with assault operations apparently ongoing on the remaining three-story buildings.

In the north of Ukrainsk, the Russians reportedly managed to advance from the east and captured Ukrainian positions in the low-rise residential area and are pushing in the direction of the Ukrainsk mine.

If these reports are true, then it is likely that the town will fall in the coming days. Ukraine appears to be putting up less and less resistance each day, likely due to limited resuppliment and reinforcements.

As the IDF predicted, Hamas launched two rockets from Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip at the city of Ashkelon.

It is reported that one rocket was shot down by Israeli air defences and the other fell in the sea off the coast of Ashkelon. No casualties were reported.

Today’s Russian Geran drone attack was smaller than usual. ~7 drones were launched from Kursk. These primarily targeted Poltava Oblast, specifically Poltava city and Myrhorod.

There is currently only one Geran left in the airspace of Ukraine, and it is flying in the direction of Cherkasy Oblast.

Unless new Shaheds are launched, I doubt there will be any Kh-101 missile launches.

It’s important to note that there are still 7 Kalibr missile carriers in the Black Sea with a total possible volley of up to 48 missiles.

Meanwhile it appears that Ukraine has utilized its jet drones against Russia. They were recorded over Moscow Oblast a few hours ago, but nothing has been reported since then.

Their normal UAVs were also used, with reports by Russians indicating they flew over Kursk, Belgorod, Kaluga, Smolensk, Bryansk, Tula, Oryol, Moscow and Lipetsk Oblasts.

I’m hosting a giveaway on twitter. First person to Geolocate the image wins 3 months of telegram premium.
https://x.com/amk_mapping_/status/1835139383537942563?s=52

A Surface-to-air missile was launched from Iraq in the direction of Israel. Sirens sounded in Tel Aviv and the surrounding areas. The missile reportedly fell in an open area.

Smoke is rising over the Gezer area.

Clarification: The missile was launched from Yemen.

Reports from both Ukrainian and Russian sources suggest that Russian forces have advanced near Pishchane.

There were two advances that reportedly took place. Firstly, Russian infantry likely advanced from their positions in the trench fortifications north of Pishchane, up two treelines. Building on their momentum, the Russians likely managed to capture a 4.1km treeline that runs from east to west, allowing for them to get behind Ukrainian positions on the tactical heights behind Tabaivka.

The second advance was much smaller. Russian forces likely advanced from positions directly west of Pishchane, and panned out along two forested areas, pushing the AFU further north. It is also possible that this advance took place from the east, as it would be easier than advancing uphill, plus these forests were already in a semi-envelopment.

Reliable reports suggest that Russian forces have advanced in Kursk Oblast, capturing positions in the treelines, and gaining a foothold in the westernmost part of the village of Liubimovka.

To advance further into Liubimovka, the Russians will need to cross the Snagost river, although it is possible that they will attack from Byakhovo and along the southern bank of the river to continue the offensive, while also widening the wedge that is being driven into Ukrainian controlled territory.

A local Ukrainian source reported that Russian forces have completely captured the town of Ukrainsk, and that fighting is ongoing for the nearby Terykon. Another source predicted that it will fall in the coming days.

Geolocated footage from a couple of days ago indicates that Russian forces have advanced north of Kalinina and captured a Ukrainian trench fortification.

After they gained a foothold in the southern part of the forest, Russian forces were able to continue their advance and capture the rest of it. They then advanced down the nearby treelines which they used to advance into the trench fortification. Ukrainian forces withdrew to positions in the next forest, and to the trench fortifications on the western bank of the Siverksy Donets Canal.

This advance will allow for an assault on Hryhorivka from two directions: the east and the south. The forests may also be used as forward troop concentration points for future assault operations across the canal.

There has been no confirmed or claimed movement of the frontlines south of Vuhledar after the initial Russian attack on the Ukrainian held positions in and around the agricultural buildings in northern Pavliivka 5 days ago.

This either means two things:

1. The 110th brigade which was sent to a Vuhledar isn’t as degraded as we previously thought.

2. Part of the 72nd brigade remained in Vuhledar rather than all of it being sent to Selydove.

I’m more inclined to believe the latter as there were reports by Russian sources that the 72nd was still conducting operations there. Additionally, I’m pretty sure that the 110th is still very degraded as it was bombarded by FABs in Avdiivka for months, and went through intense battles for Keramik, Novokalynove and Arkhanhelske. They are also reportedly primarily made up of connoscripts.

I doubt that they alone would be able to repel a frontal attack by the Russians, even though they do hold the high ground in the area. Therefore, It is highly likely in my opinion that 1-2 battalions of the 72nd remained in Vuhledar due to the deteriorating situation, while the rest was sent to Selydove to help the previously deteriorating situation there.

This is another example of Ukraine plugging holes wherever they can, as they get stretched thinner and thinner and is another reason why the Kursk offensive should have never happened. The fact that the AFU is moving battalions between critical areas of the frontline highlights how they have little to no reserves in the rear.

Interesting, I didn’t know the Houthis had missiles like that.