Update on Russian preparations for the next large-scale, combined missile attack on Ukraine:

The Tu-95MS strategic bombers stationed at Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast have been carrying out long-range training alongside 3 IL-78 tankers in the area of the Kuril Islands of the Pacific Ocean as a part of Russia's ongoing nuclear exercises. 4-6 of them are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.

1 Tu-95MS redeployed from Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast, to Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast, to be equipped with missiles. Now there are 2 Tu-95MS at Engels-2, and none at Olenya.

At least 3 Kalibr carriers stationed at Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai are equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles, including one 11356R “Admiral Makarov” frigate, one 11356R “Admiral Essen” Frigate, and one Buyan-M corvette.

No new deliveries of Iskander-M ballistic or Iskander-K cruise missiles to OTRK installations surrounding Ukraine have taken place over the past three days, however there are still missiles there which are available for launch, meaning that individual strikes on newly discovered targets are likely over the next 48 hours.

1 An-26 cargo plane landed at Shaykovka Airbase, Kaluga Oblast. The cargo consists of Kh-22 cruise missiles for the 7 Tu-22m3 strategic bombers currently stationed there. Some of these bombers may take part in the next large strike.

2 Tu-22m3 bombers remain stationed at Olenya Airbase. They carried out a training mission as a part of Russia's nuclear exercises. Both bombers are equipped with missiles and carried out simulated launches (likely with electronic warfare) from over the Barents Sea yesterday.

Accumulation of Geran-2/Gebera drones continues at other launch points in preparation for their usage both in the next large-scale attack, and smaller attacks prior to that.

5 Tu-95MS remain stationed at Diaghilev Airbase, Ryazan Oblast. They are not expected to take part in the next large-scale attack.

3 Tu-160s are stationed at Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast. At least 1 is equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. 4 other Tu-160s are stationed at Ukrainka Airbase, but their status is currently unknown.

Su-34R and Su-24MR aircraft continue to carry out intensified reconnaissance operations, especially over Rostov Oblast and Krasnodar Krai.

No A-50U AWACS aircraft flights were recorded yesterday or today, despite their recent flight activity from Ulyanovsk-East Airbase.

5 MiG-31Ks redeployed from Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, to Akhtubinsk Airbase, Astrakhan Oblast. It is from there that they launched Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles during yesterday's missile attack. 6 MiG-31Ks are currently stationed at Akhtubinsk, while none are at Savasleika. Most likely, none of them are currently equipped with missiles.

Russian forces have captured the village of Pavlivka, Hulyaipole direction, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~45.
Total land area: ~0.27 km².

Near Oleksandro-Kalynove first snow fell recently, but didn’t last long. Today, too, it snowed a bit there.
Further east near Toretsk-Kostyantynivka area, still nothing, but temperatures go in the negatives often.

⚡️🇺🇦🇷🇺Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, at the European Council Summit, reaffirmed that territorial concessions are not on the table for negotiation.

@wfwitness

Last night, Ukrainian UAVs struck the 500 kV Arzamasskaya Electrical Substation in the village of Lesnogorsk, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast.

The substation is one of the main suppliers of energy in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. It is used by key railway routes as well as Russia's energy corporation Gazprom.

Coordinates: 55.09529, 43.93902

Russian Su-34/35s are trying to shoot down Ukrainian F-16s northwest of Sumy.

An explosion was heard in Sumy.

From what I've gathered, a Russian Su-35 launched an R-37M air-to-air missile from over Kursk Oblast. It was acting as an escort for Su-34s launching KAB glide-bombs at Krasnopillya, Sumy Oblast, but remained in the area after the Su-34s left.

One F-16 flew back over Sumy on a southwestern course a few minutes ago.

The F-16(s) were going to launch glide-bombs at Sudzha District, Kursk Oblast, but have been forced to abandon the combat mission.

The Russians are breaking through in the Novopavlivka direction. Their bridgehead over the Vovcha River has rapidly expanded, forcing many Ukrainian formations to withdraw from their heavily fortified positions to prevent being encircled.

Depending how this develops, we could see Novopavlivka begin to be enveloped from the west, and the whole front west of Pokrovsk shift north/northwest towards the important logistical hub of Mezhova.

Keep an eye on this West Donetsk / East Dnipropetrovsk sector, especially once Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad fall. It could play out something like this map shows.

Apparently 6 soldiers is now a mass surrender lmao.

Also, for those who for some stupid reason only look at Deepstate's maps, Kucheriv Yar was never encircled, but rather stormed from the northeast.

The victory threshold for Ukraine continues to get lower and lower...

Russian forces have re-established control over Sichneve, Pokrovsk'e direction, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~160.
Total land area: ~0.75km².

I present to you, the "Monster Tank":

It recently took part in a Russian mechanised assault in the Siversk direction, and tanked more than 25 FPV drone hits before finally being disabled. The surviving infantry are now trying to consolidate in the treelines.

This video should also give a good idea of the sheer density of FPV drones on the battlefield, especially in places like Siversk where the Ukrainians have very strong defences. There are drones literally everywhere, and all movement within 10km of the frontline is instantly spotted.

Russian KAB glide-bombs are once again striking the bridge to Korobelnyi Island in an attempt to destroy it. So far it remains standing.

Also, on a sidenote, the claims of Russian soldiers landing and consolidating on the island are completely false. Don't fall for it.