In the Kostyantynivka direction, Russian forces continued their assault on Pleshchiivka, and have made new advances inside the settlement.
After gaining a foothold in the southern part of the village, Russian forces continued their attacks further north under heavy drone and artillery cover. They were able to entrench and consolidate in denser residential areas in the western part of Pleshchiivka, before pushing north along the streets next to the railway line, capturing new positions there. Attacks are now underway on the centre of the village, where the grey zone is expanding.
+ ~0.18 km² in favour of Russia.
After gaining a foothold in the southern part of the village, Russian forces continued their attacks further north under heavy drone and artillery cover. They were able to entrench and consolidate in denser residential areas in the western part of Pleshchiivka, before pushing north along the streets next to the railway line, capturing new positions there. Attacks are now underway on the centre of the village, where the grey zone is expanding.
+ ~0.18 km² in favour of Russia.
I keep seeing people bringing up this older post of mine as a "gotcha", so I'll address what I meant in it here:
This post was made in October 2024 when the last cohesive and layered Ukrainian defence line ran through the Pokrovsk area. The 9-12 months figure I provided was a timeline based on if, hypothetically, Russia kept advancing at the exact same rate which they were advancing at in October 2024.
It was not a prediction, but instead a post aimed at highlighting Ukraine's lack of defences in the Donbas, which was caused by them greatly underestimating Russia's capabilities following the fall of Avdiivka. Since that post, Ukraine has constructed many more defences further back, including more modernised and adapted fortifications which are more effective against drones.
This post was made in October 2024 when the last cohesive and layered Ukrainian defence line ran through the Pokrovsk area. The 9-12 months figure I provided was a timeline based on if, hypothetically, Russia kept advancing at the exact same rate which they were advancing at in October 2024.
It was not a prediction, but instead a post aimed at highlighting Ukraine's lack of defences in the Donbas, which was caused by them greatly underestimating Russia's capabilities following the fall of Avdiivka. Since that post, Ukraine has constructed many more defences further back, including more modernised and adapted fortifications which are more effective against drones.
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Forwarded from Playfra - Maps & Analyses
Siversk general direction. Russian forces consolidate their positions and logistic routes near Soledar and behind the current front, Ukrainian drones aren't very active in their rear.
The red square represents frequent Russian shelling over the past days of a location with high Ukrainian infantry traffic. Many Ukrainian casualties were recorded because of this, but for some reason they keep using this exact route.
The red square represents frequent Russian shelling over the past days of a location with high Ukrainian infantry traffic. Many Ukrainian casualties were recorded because of this, but for some reason they keep using this exact route.
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Playfra - Maps & Analyses
Siversk general direction. Russian forces consolidate their positions and logistic routes near Soledar and behind the current front, Ukrainian drones aren't very active in their rear. The red square represents frequent Russian shelling over the past days of…
The Russians also entered Zvanivka yesterday, which could be related to the heavy shelling in that area.
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In the Siversk direction, Russian forces resumed assault operations towards Siversk from the east, capturing new positions in the area of the reservoir.
Russian forces advanced west from the village of Verkhnokamyanske to the next treeline over, recapturing previously lost positions there, and along the road to Siversk. They were also able to secure the entirety of the southern bank of the reservoir, capturing the trenches in the forests there. Additionally, Russian forces recaptured the trenches northwest of the reservoir, advancing slightly closer to eastern Siversk.
+ ~2.54 km² in favour of Russia.
Russian forces advanced west from the village of Verkhnokamyanske to the next treeline over, recapturing previously lost positions there, and along the road to Siversk. They were also able to secure the entirety of the southern bank of the reservoir, capturing the trenches in the forests there. Additionally, Russian forces recaptured the trenches northwest of the reservoir, advancing slightly closer to eastern Siversk.
+ ~2.54 km² in favour of Russia.
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The first Russian soldiers have entered the easternmost parts of Lyman. The battle for the city has begun.
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Threat of Oreshnik IRBMs from Kapustin Yar, Astrakhan Oblast. This is most likely related to Russia's nuclear exercises, but sirens are now sounding in all regions of Ukraine.
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AMK Mapping
A fire is burning in Kyiv from the Iskander strikes.
The strikes on Kyiv targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure, likely the CHP-6 Power Plant.
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The moment of one of the Iskander strikes on Kyiv.
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AMK Mapping
Threat of Oreshnik IRBMs from Kapustin Yar, Astrakhan Oblast. This is most likely related to Russia's nuclear exercises, but sirens are now sounding in all regions of Ukraine.
The Oreshnik threat is confirmed to be from Russian tests. Sirens should be lifted in around 5-6 minutes.
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Footage showing the second Russian Iskander-M striking Kyiv.
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AMK Mapping
The Oreshnik threat is confirmed to be from Russian tests. Sirens should be lifted in around 5-6 minutes.
Now there's a UAV threat for Astrakhan Oblast.
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Russia carried out additional long-range training over the northeast Pacific with their strategic bombers last night.
One Tu-95MS, escorted by two Su-35 fighters came close to the airspace of Sado Island, central Japan, forcing Japan to scramble fighters in response. The Russian MOD confirmed the incident, stating that they were escorted by fighters from a "foreign country" at one point.
Scheduled long-range training has delayed any future Russian large-scale, combined missile attacks on Ukraine involving strategic bombers, resulting in recent attacks all being carried out with missiles other than Kh-101s.
One Tu-95MS, escorted by two Su-35 fighters came close to the airspace of Sado Island, central Japan, forcing Japan to scramble fighters in response. The Russian MOD confirmed the incident, stating that they were escorted by fighters from a "foreign country" at one point.
Scheduled long-range training has delayed any future Russian large-scale, combined missile attacks on Ukraine involving strategic bombers, resulting in recent attacks all being carried out with missiles other than Kh-101s.
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Three Ukrainian HIMARS GMLRS rockets targeted the Belgorod Reservoir Dam, near the village of Grafovka, Belgorod Oblast.
Damage was recorded to several buildings holding technical equipment, as well mechanisms of one of the sluices. The dam remains intact and is at no risk of collapsing.
Coordinates: 50.41435, 36.75717
Damage was recorded to several buildings holding technical equipment, as well mechanisms of one of the sluices. The dam remains intact and is at no risk of collapsing.
Coordinates: 50.41435, 36.75717
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During his visit to London, Zelensky presented an "Octopus" interceptor drone to British Prime Minister Starmer.
Discussions are ongoing between the UK and Ukraine to produce Octopus drones from within the UK, to then subsequently supply to Ukraine. The Octopus drone was initially developed domestically by Ukraine, but production will always be difficult due to Russian long-range strike capabilities and other internal factors. The UK plans to produce "several thousand" drones per month for supply to Ukraine.
Due to ramped up production of Russian Geran-2 drones, and changes in their tactics, it has become increasingly difficult for Ukraine to intercept them with ordinary anti-air fire. The drones are now able to fly at very high altitudes, outside the range of most AA, before divebombing into their target, leaving only a very limited window of opportunity for interception. These new interceptor drones are known to have been effective in countering these Russian capabilities in the past, but current rates of production mean that their effect remains limited for the time being.
Discussions are ongoing between the UK and Ukraine to produce Octopus drones from within the UK, to then subsequently supply to Ukraine. The Octopus drone was initially developed domestically by Ukraine, but production will always be difficult due to Russian long-range strike capabilities and other internal factors. The UK plans to produce "several thousand" drones per month for supply to Ukraine.
Due to ramped up production of Russian Geran-2 drones, and changes in their tactics, it has become increasingly difficult for Ukraine to intercept them with ordinary anti-air fire. The drones are now able to fly at very high altitudes, outside the range of most AA, before divebombing into their target, leaving only a very limited window of opportunity for interception. These new interceptor drones are known to have been effective in countering these Russian capabilities in the past, but current rates of production mean that their effect remains limited for the time being.
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