In the Lyman direction, Russian forces continued their offensive operations and have entered the first houses of Lyman City.

In the southeast, Russian forces continued to attack through the Yampil forest, moving south of the railway line in the direction of the road intersection southeast of Lyman. At the same time, they quickly advanced through the forests north of the tracks to the Masliakivka District of the city, entering its first houses. No consolidation has occurred here yet.

To the north, Russian forces continued pushing west through the Pynkiv Yar Gulley, slowing advancing through the forests towards its end. They were able to take additional positions here despite fierce Ukrainian resistance.

Further north, Russian forces began a new series of attacks west of Zarichne aimed at fully pushing the Ukrainians away from the village. After repelling Ukrainian counterattacks, they were able to break out of northwestern Zarichne into the Shablyn Yar Gulley, which was quickly brought under Russian control. This forced the Ukrainians to begin withdrawing from their strongpoints in the forests and agricultural buildings to the south to prevent being encircled. A large grey-zone has since formed at the abandoned positions, but the Russians have managed to take some positions in the eastern treelines and buildings.

To the northwest, over the past week, Russian forces have been carrying out assault operations on Stavky. After breaking into the village from the trenches to the north, Russia was able to consolidate in the northernmost houses and begin pushing south, fighting for each building towards the centre. A grey zone has now formed, encompassing the local school and surrounding areas, with the Ukrainians putting up fierce resistance despite Russian advances in the surrounding areas.

To the west, Russian forces broke through Ukrainian defences along the Drobysheve - Stavky Road and captured treeline positions there. They then advanced further, cutting the dirt road leading to Stavky and entering the nearby treelines, further pressuring the remaining Ukrainian formations in the village.

Meanwhile, Russian forces continue to carry out assault operations in northern Drobysheve, and are trying to advance from the agricultural buildings and northern streets towards the town centre. They are also attempting to reach the village via the rest of the Bogdasarov Gulley. No new confirmed advances were recorded in these areas, however.

+ ~9.99 km² in favour of Russia.

On the northwestern flank of Lyman, and in the Borova direction, both Russian and Ukrainian forces have advanced, with Russian forces making significant progress towards the city of Svyatohirsk.

Russian forces continued advancing through the Novoselivka forest and reached its northwestern edge. They were also able to establish control over the treelines on the tactical heights beyond it, before other forces began new attacks into the Sviati Hory National Park. The Russians were able to capture the Svyatohirsk Water Treatment Facility and gained a foothold in the forests of the national park. Due to a critical lack of manpower in this direction, Ukrainian forces put up limited resistance as the Russians advanced through the forests on multiple axes.

Russian forces advanced west through the forests towards the Sosnove - Oleksandrivka Railway Line and Road and are rapidly approaching it. They are also advancing down the road to western Yarova, and captured new positions in the forests there. Additionally, the Russian soldiers who infiltrated southeastern Yarova were forced to withdraw after meeting fierce resistance from the Ukrainian garrison there and instead began attacks towards the village from forested areas further west.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces continued their counterattacks in the village of Ridkodub. As a result of intensified attacks, they were able to recapture the agricultural buildings on the northern outskirts of the settlement, while the Russians largely pulled back to its easternmost street.

+ ~7.09 km² in favour of Russia.
+ ~0.50 km² in favour of Ukraine.

In the Kupyansk direction, both Russian and Ukrainian forces have advanced, with Ukrainian forces attempting to cut off the Russian assault groups in Kupyansk from the north.

Ukrainian forces advanced from their newly recaptured positions in the forest plantations north of Moskovka, across the P-79 Highway, and into the forests south of Kindrashivka and northwest of Radkivka. They were able to take the poorly consolidated Russian positions there and used them to push further into the treelines southeast and east of Kindrashivka.

Ukrainian armoured vehicles were able to advance further, and approached the western bank of the Oskil River, but were subsequently destroyed by FPV drones. Most of the infantry in the vehicles were killed shortly afterwards, and the chances of consolidation in these areas is next to zero. Nevertheless, Russian logistics into Kupyansk have been complicated. While all supply was already being carried out on foot through fields and forests, this shortening of the gap that can be used will make things more difficult and could delay the eventual fall of the city.

Meanwhile, Russian forces continued to advance in Kupyansk itself. They were able to consolidate in the central market and advance to the residential areas and the university, physically encircling any remaining Ukrainian soldiers in the grey zone of the city centre.

+ ~1.74 km² in favour of Ukraine.
+ ~0.54 km² in favour of Russia.

In the Velykyi Burluk direction, Russian forces intensified their assault operations over the past week, making substantial progress.

Russian forces advanced south from their recently captured positions across the international border northeast of Odradne, and captured new positions in the gulleys and treelines southeast of Odradne. This allowed for the Russians to break out of the village and take up new positions in the forest and treelines to the south.

From there, a new incursion was made across the border in the direction of Bolohivka. The Russians quickly captured the lightly defended positions in the forests just across the border, linking up their larger incursion zone to the rest of the frontline in Kharkiv Oblast. They then began attacking Bolohivka from the northeast, while other forces advanced downhill and southeast along the treelines from their earlier incursion zone. This allowed for them to enter the village from two directions and quickly seize control over it.

Since then, Russian forces began a new series of attacks in the area between Bolohivka and Odradne. They advanced south down the treelines and gulleys, taking up new positions on both the tactical heights and in the low-lying ground, and reached the northern outskirts of Dvorichanske where fighting is now ongoing.

+ ~24.80 km² in favour of Russia.

In the Vovchansk direction, Russian forces continued to advance southwest of Vovchansk, further expanding their bridgehead on the southern bank of the Vovcha River.

After establishing control over much of the western suburbs, Russian forces began attacking out of the city towards the village of Synelnykove. They were able to establish control over the rest of the residential parts of Vovchansk west of the railway line and secured new positions in the adjacent forests and on the outskirts of Synelnykove.

Further west, the Russians intensified their assault operations in the Synelnykove Forest. They pushed further south from the eastern bank of the Vovcha River and reached the Synelnykove - Hrafske Road, establishing control over numerous positions north of it.

+ ~5.58 km² in favour of Russia.

In the Khotin direction, Russian forces continued their assault operations towards Kindrativka and have recaptured positions northeast of the village.

After being forced to withdraw over the reservoir, Russian forces crossed it again using rubber boats and gained a foothold in the forest plantations on its southern bank. From there they advanced further, securing the entire southern bank, as well as positions further south along the treeline.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are attacking towards the road intersection west of Kostyantynivka, attempting to cut off supplies into the village. No confirmed progress has been made here.

+ ~1.81 km² in favour of Russia.

Reuters reports that due to the repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on the Ryazan Oil Refinery, the refinery has shut down its main oil processing unit (ATV-4) for three months.

This unit can produce as much as 4 million metric tons of fuel per year (80,000 barrels per day), which equates to 35-50% of the refinery's total production capacity. In addition to this, nearby units such as a reformer, gasoil hydrotreater, and catalytic cracker were also reportedly temporarily halted due to the damage sustained.

The Ryazan Oil Refinery is the fourth largest in Russia, and processes approximately 5% of Russia's total refinery output.

Overnight, 2 Russian Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast, to Diaghilev Airbase, Ryazan Oblast.

One An-124-100 "Ruslan" cargo plane landed at Diaghilev Airbase, carrying Kh-101 cruise missiles for the Tu-95MS. To my knowledge, this is the first recorded instance of Russia using Diaghilev Airbase to equip their bombers.

Meanwhile, 1 Tu-95MS is stationed at Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast, and 3 are at Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast. 2 Tu-160s are also stationed at Engels-2. All of these aircraft are equipped with missiles.

There is an increased possibility of the next large-scale, combined missile attack on Ukraine taking place tonight, as large launches of Geran-2 drones are expected to take place.

My interview with AMK mapping is now up.

https://youtu.be/pl3bA4Xh9sI?si=q_LkZzJQN1BnSnKl

This is my fourth episode on Kalibrated, and its interesting seeing how my views have evolved over time since the first time I appeared on the show in June 2024.

There is a significant chance of Russia launching a large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine tonight.

So far, launches of Geran-2 drones have been recorded (not confirmed) from Millerovo Airbase, Rostov Oblast, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk Airbase, Krasnodar Krai. Additional preparations for launches of Gerna-2/3 drones has been recorded from Navlya Test Site, Bryansk Oblast.

Due to recent accumulations of Geran-2 drones at Millerovo Airbase, the numbers of drones launched from here alone could reach as high as 100.

Additionally, due to recent deliveries of missiles, there is a high threat of Iskander-M ballistic missile and Iskander-K cruise missile launches from OTRK installations in Bryansk Oblast, Kursk Oblast, and Voronezh Oblast.

A Russian BM-35 drone has struck a wind turbine near Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast for the third time this week.

Over the past 48 hours, as many as 4 Russian MiG-31Ks have been re-equipped with Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles at Akhtubinsk Airbase, Astrakhan Oblast. They may be used tonight.