In the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces advanced to the Dnipropetrovsk - Donetsk Regional Border, establishing control over an important stronghold.

Russian forces advanced from the western part of Novoserhiivka and entered a large trench stronghold and bunker system. Soldiers were able to clear it, detonating the concrete bunkers with explosives and engaging the remaining Ukrainian soldiers with small arms. Other forces captured new positions in the treelines to the north, largely aligning the front with the regional border.

+ ~3.04 km² in favour of Russia.

In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces continued to advance in and around Pokrovsk, capturing key positions within the city.

In the west, after bombing Ukrainian positions with FABs, Russian forces advanced from the treelines west of Pokrovsk to the railway line, establishing control over a 2.9 km stretch of the railway windbreaks.

In Pokrovsk City, Russian forces were able to consolidate in the northern part of the Sobachivka District, as well as the eastern part of the city centre. Clashes continue in the area of the railway station, administrative building, city council building, and other nearby districts.

From there, the Russians crossed the railway line and entrenched in the private sector, establishing a wedge between the two industrial strongholds in northern Pokrovsk. They then advanced further, capturing positions on Bereznya and Demury Streets, with DRGs infiltrating even further north. Additionally, Russian forces infiltrated further into the northwestern industrial zone of Pokrovsk, expanding the grey zone further.

+ ~1.87 km² in favour of Russia.

In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces continued their assault operations in Myrnohrad, and have made significant progress in the southern part of the city.

After entering the city further north and securing the areas to the east, Russian forces infiltrated the southern suburbs of Myrnohrad in multiple new places, consolidating in the first streets. Reinforcements were then sent in, allowing for additional progress to be made on a wide front.

Russian forces reached the terykon from the east, establishing control over Mine 5/6, and began bypassing the terykon from the south into the nearby residential streets. Other forces who entered further south captured the small private sector and advanced towards one of the city parks, linking up with other formations.

+ ~1.91 km² in favour of Russia.

On the northeastern flank of Pokrovsk, Russian forces continued to advance behind Pokrovsk and established full control over the city of Rodynske.

After infiltrating the city from the south, and advancing from the east and north, the remaining Ukrainian units were forced to leave the city, allowing for the Russians to capture the rest of the city centre and western suburbs. They then went on to establish control over the railway line to the west, along with the abandoned and demolished mine.

To the southeast, Russian forces continued to advance north of Myrnohrad, and captured additional treeline positions north of the city as well as an abandoned mineshaft. Some soldiers were able to infiltrate the northern streets of the city; however no consolidation has occurred yet.

+ ~3.68 km² in favour of Russia.

In the Dobropillya direction, both Russian and Ukrainian forces are advancing, with Ukrainian forces making substantial progress on the western flank of the salient.

In the south, Ukrainian forces advanced from their positions east of the railway line and recaptured treeline positions north of Zatyshok. They then infiltrated the village from the north, and attempted to push towards its western edge, resulting in Russian and Ukrainian positions being mixed up in a grey zone. Other forces also infiltrated Sukhetske, however there is no evidence of consolidation yet.

To the north, the Ukrainians once again recaptured the village of Nove Shakhove, and established control over positions to the south. They also advanced from Vilne to the treelines south and southeast and recaptured the dachas to the east.

To the northeast, Ukrainian forces advanced from their newly established positions in Kucheriv Yar, capturing positions in the forest plantations to the south.

Meanwhile, Russian forces continued to advance in western Shakhove amid fierce fighting, and established full control over that section of the village. Mechanised assaults were also carried out on the eastern part of the village, however there is no evidence of consolidation yet.

+ ~13.99 km in favour of Ukraine.
+ ~0.52 km² in favour of Russia.

In the Kostyantynivka direction, Russian forces closed the pocket south of the reservoir and began refocusing their efforts further north.

Following the earlier Ukrainian withdrawal from the cut-off area south of the Kleban-Bykske reservoir via rubber boats, Russian forces have now established control over the treelines and forests to the south. Since then, they have continued their attacks towards the rear of the reservoir and are attempting to gain a foothold in the forests east of the highway.

+ ~12.40 km² in favour of Russia.

In the Siversk direction, Russian forces resumed their assault operations towards Siversk from the southeast and have captured new positions on the tactical heights.

Russian forces advanced from the treelines northeast of Vyimka, pushing along the tactical heights, and captured new positions to the northwest. They then advanced further north up a treeline and are attempting to establish control over additional positions closer to Siversk.

+ ~2.52 km² in favour of Russia.

In the Lyman direction, Russian forces continued their offensive operations and have made new progress to east of the city.

In the northwest, Russian forces advanced further through the forests along the railway line and reached the eastern edge of Lyman. DRGs then infiltrated the city and have since been operating in the area of the freight terminals. They also established control over new parts of the forests and infiltrated further into the Masliakivka District.

To the southeast, Russian forces continued to slowly advance in Yampil. They were able to advance out of the village centre and capture some new positions in the southwestern streets. Ukrainian forces are gradually being pushed back to the southwestern edge of the settlement.

+ ~3.70 km² in favour of Russia.

In the Lyman direction, Russian forces continued to expand their zone of control west of Zarichne, and have eliminated the salient recently formed there.

After outflanking Ukrainian strongpoints west of Zarichne from the north, Ukrainian forces began withdrawing to the west to prevent being encircled. The Russians have since captured the agricultural complex that served as one of Ukraine's main forward deployment points in this sector, and secured the rest of the surrounding forests, levelling the frontline to the west.

+ ~3.85 km² in favour of Russia.

Following reports of Hamas fighters opening fire on Israeli soldiers in Rafah and firing an anti-tank missile, the IDF has begun a series of airstrikes on targets across Gaza City and Rafah.

Explosions are currently sounding across the strip from the artillery shelling and airstrikes focusing on Gaza City. One airstrike targeted the courtyard of Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City; however no casualties were reported.

All those naive people when the war and genocide starts again will be so confused why the "peace president" couldn't stop it.

It's almost as if Trump's plan was terribly laid out and had very few guarantees for Hamas (let alone the other Palestinian factions and movements in Gaza).

I honestly think the goal was to make a peace plan that was borderline acceptable for Hamas, but just slightly too far outside of what they could feasibly agree too, in order to portray them as unwilling to end the war and rebuild some justification for the IDF to continue their operations.

Hamas actually accepting the deal surprised the US and Israel, so now they are relying on ceasefire violations to slowly swing back to a fighting stance.

This new round of attacks could only be temporary, but long-term the trend is obvious.

Today, in preparation for the next large-scale missile strike, 4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast, to western Russia. 1 landed at Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast, and 3 landed at Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast.

Currently, there are 10 strategic bombers stationed near Ukraine - 13 if you include Diaghilev Airbase (Ryazan Oblast).

2 Tu-95MS strategic bombers have departed from Engels-2 Airbase and are redeploying to Olenya Airbase. They have been equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles and will take part in the next missile attack from Olenya.

Russian forces have captured the village of Dronivka, northern flank of Siversk, Donetsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~613.
Total land area: ~0.98 km².

Hamas denied responsibility for the attack on IDF soldiers in Rafah, southern Gaza, and emphasised its commitment to the ceasefire.

4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers landed at Olenya Airbase. They are all equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.

Mutliple vessels of the Black Sea Fleet stationed at Novorossiysk Naval base, Krasnodar Krai, are equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles.

Multiple OTRK installations have Iskander-M ballistic missiles ready to launch, especially from the north and northeastern directions.

2 MiG-31Ks are equipped with Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles at Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. Their usage in the next attack is likely, but not certain.

At least 4 Tu-22m3 strategic bombers stationed at Diaghilev Airbase, Ryazan Oblast, are equipped with Kh-22 cruise missiles. It is unclear if they will be used in the next attack.

1 Tu-95MS and 3 Tu-160s remain stationed at Engels-2 Airbase. Not all are equipped with missiles.

The next large-scale, combined missile attack on Ukraine is likely to take place tomorrow night. I will provide additional updates closer to the time.

I think we may be seeing the last days of the battle for Pokrovsk.

Get ready

Tonight, there is a high probability of a large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack being carried out on Ukraine. Here's what we know so far:

There are currently 7 Tu-95MS stationed at Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast. 6-7 of these are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles and are expected to take part in any combat sorties.

At Engels-2 Airbase, Murmansk Oblast, there are 2-3 Tu-160 strategic bombers equipped with Kh-101s. They are likely to take part in any combat sorties. The Tu-95MS and 1 other Tu-160 stationed there are there for training purposes.

1 frigate of the "Admiral Makarov" type, 1 frigate of the "Admiral Essen" type, and 1 submarine of the "Varshavyanka" type are equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles, and stationed at Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai. They are likely going to take part in any missile attacks.

3-4 MiG-31Ks stationed at Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, are equipped with Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles. They may take part in any combat sorties. The 2 other MiG-31Ks equipped with missiles stationed at Akhtubinsk Airbase, Astrakhan Oblast, are not expected to take part.

At least four Iskander OTRK installations have received deliveries of Iskander-M ballistic missiles and/or Iskander-K cruise missiles. These are in Bryansk Oblast, Kursk Oblast, Voronezh Oblast, and Rostov Oblast. Their usage tonight is possible but not confirmed.

After weeks of accumulation, there are over 500 Geran-2, Geran-3, and Gerbera drones ready to launch from 10-11 different directions surrounding Ukraine.

The chances of a missile attack taking place tonight is not 100%, but it is likely (~75%).

So far, launches of Geran-2 drones have been recorded from:

Primorsko-Akhtarsk Airbase, Krasnodar Krai.
Tsumbulova Test Site, Oryol Oblast (x2).
Khalino Airbase, Kursk Oblast.
Navlya Test Site, Bryansk Oblast.

The first drones are entering Ukrainian airspace via Sumy, Chernihiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.