Tonight, there is a high probability of a large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack being carried out on Ukraine. Here's what we know so far:

There are currently 7 Tu-95MS stationed at Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast. 6-7 of these are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles and are expected to take part in any combat sorties.

At Engels-2 Airbase, Murmansk Oblast, there are 2-3 Tu-160 strategic bombers equipped with Kh-101s. They are likely to take part in any combat sorties. The Tu-95MS and 1 other Tu-160 stationed there are there for training purposes.

1 frigate of the "Admiral Makarov" type, 1 frigate of the "Admiral Essen" type, and 1 submarine of the "Varshavyanka" type are equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles, and stationed at Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai. They are likely going to take part in any missile attacks.

3-4 MiG-31Ks stationed at Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, are equipped with Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles. They may take part in any combat sorties. The 2 other MiG-31Ks equipped with missiles stationed at Akhtubinsk Airbase, Astrakhan Oblast, are not expected to take part.

At least four Iskander OTRK installations have received deliveries of Iskander-M ballistic missiles and/or Iskander-K cruise missiles. These are in Bryansk Oblast, Kursk Oblast, Voronezh Oblast, and Rostov Oblast. Their usage tonight is possible but not confirmed.

After weeks of accumulation, there are over 500 Geran-2, Geran-3, and Gerbera drones ready to launch from 10-11 different directions surrounding Ukraine.

The chances of a missile attack taking place tonight is not 100%, but it is likely (~75%).

So far, launches of Geran-2 drones have been recorded from:

Primorsko-Akhtarsk Airbase, Krasnodar Krai.
Tsumbulova Test Site, Oryol Oblast (x2).
Khalino Airbase, Kursk Oblast.
Navlya Test Site, Bryansk Oblast.

The first drones are entering Ukrainian airspace via Sumy, Chernihiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.

General movements of Russian Geran-2 drones. Currently, ~9 drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace.

The situation in the Pokrovsk direction has reached a catastrophic point for Ukraine. Ukrainian formations in Myrnohrad, eastern Pokrovsk, and the surrounding villages are now operationally encircled.

Russian troops broke through to the northern outskirts of Pokrovsk, leaving only a 2km-wide corridor of open fields to escape encirclement. The coming days will be decisive.

A Russian flag was raised over the Pokrovsk plaque on the northwestern outskirts of the city. This is the same plaque that Zelensky visited around a year ago.

Activity on Russian combat-related strategic aviation frequencies is recorded. We will likely see departures of Tu-95MS bombers from Olenya Airbase to launch missiles in the near future.

Combat-related radio activity has resumed after a brief pause.

Update on Geran launches:

So far, 8 launches of Geran-2 drones have been recorded. These are from:

Primorsko-Akhtarsk Airbase, Krasnodar Krai.
Tsumbulova Test Site, Oryol Oblast (x2).
Khalino Airbase, Kursk Oblast (x2).
Navlya Test Site, Bryansk Oblast.
Kacha Airbase, Crimea.
Cape Chauda, Crimea.

It's currently 9:46 pm in Kyiv. No departures of Tu-95MS have been recorded yet.

Remember, departures will take place later due to changes in daylight hours.

Update on Geran launches:

So far, 11 launches of Geran-2 drones have been recorded. These are from:

Primorsko-Akhtarsk Airbase, Krasnodar Krai.
Tsumbulova Test Site, Oryol Oblast (x2).
Khalino Airbase, Kursk Oblast (x3).
Navlya Test Site, Bryansk Oblast.
Kacha Airbase, Crimea.
Cape Chauda, Crimea.
Millerovo Airbase, Rostov Oblast.
Shatalovo Airbase, Smolensk Oblast.

General movements of Russian Geran-2 drones. Currently, ~25 drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace.

General movements of Russian Geran-2 drones. Currently, ~38 drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace.

Activity on combat-related strategic frequencies continues periodically. No direct communications relating to departures of strategic bombers has been recorded yet.

1 IL-76MD cargo plane landed at Taganrog-Central Airbase, Rostov Oblast. Iskander-M ballistic missiles are being delivered to OTRK installations near Taganrog. Its unclear if they will be used in tonight's attack.

General movements of Russian Geran-2 drones. Currently, ~32 drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace.

A lot of the earlier drones in northern Ukraine were Gerbera decoys.

Unidentified missile to Tuzly, Odesa Oblast.

This was an Iskander-K cruise missile. It has since disappeared.

Correction: Its a Kh-31P anti-radar missile. Continuing to fly towards Tuzly.

Impacted near Sarata, Odesa Oblast.

Most of the Geran-2 drones are flying towards Kyiv. We could see Iskander-M launches in that direction later on.