Tonight there will be a large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine.

At least 4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast. 3 landed at Diaghilev Airbase, Ryazan Oblast, and 1 landed at Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast. All are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.

1-2 Varshavyanka submarines are equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles at Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai. There are likely other surface carriers which are also equipped.

Deliveries of Iskander-M ballistic missiles have taken place to OTRK installations in Kursk, Voronezh, Bryansk, and Rostov Oblast.

Launches of Geran-2 drones are taking place. At least 500 Gerans have been accumulated at various launch sites and are expected to be used in Ukraine.

Currently, communications on strategic frequencies between Diaghilev Airbase, Engels-2 Airbase, and Moscow have been recorded.

There likely won’t be any departures of Tu-95MS for at least the next 4 hours.

Launches of Geran-2 drones have been recorded (not all confirmed) from:

Khalino Airbase, Kursk Oblast (x2).
Navlya Test site, Bryansk Oblast (x1).
Millerovo Airbase, Rostov Oblast (x1).
Tsumbulova Test Site, Oryol Oblast (x1).
Hvardiiske Training Ground, Crimea (x1).
Kacha Airbase, Crimea (x1).
Primorsko-Akhtarsk Airbase, Krasnodar Krai (x1).
Cape Chauda, Crimea (x1).

The airspace over the launch lines for MiG-31Ks has been closed in Lipetsk, Tambov, and Ryazan Oblasts.

Launches of Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles are expected in the coming hours.

Mass launches of Geran-2 drones have begun from Khalino Airbase, Kursk Oblast. The drones are being launched one by one and will fly in a chain formation at high altitude over Ukraine.

The long-range missiles and drones will likely target the western regions of Ukraine tonight, but there is still a threat to Kyiv.

As for Iskander-M ballistic missiles, they will target the usual regions in the eastern half of Ukraine.

Several Geran-2 drones are now over southeastern Kyiv Oblast.

If they fly further west to Zhytomyr/Vinnytsia, it will confirm that Kh-101s and Kinzhals will target the western regions later on.

So far, at least 150 Geran-2 drones have been launched from various launch sites surrounding Ukraine

This will only be a portion of what is used tonight.

These Gerans are now south of Kyiv, still flying west.

2 Tu-160M and 3 Tu-95MS strategic bombers are airborne from Belaya Airbase, Irkutsk Oblast, and Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast.

They are flying to their launch lines in western Russia (Saratov, Volgograd or Caspian Sea)

The Gerans in Kyiv Oblast are flying to the western regions of Ukraine. Missiles will fly there later.

Highest threat to Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Lutsk Oblasts.

At least 1 Tu-95MS is also airborne from Engels-2 Airbase, circling in western Saratov Oblast.

4-6 MiG-31Ks are being prepared at Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast.

Departures and launches of Kinzhals are expected in the near future.

After more than three years of fighting, the Ukrainian defence of Siversk is falling apart.

MiG-31Ks are now airborne

3 MiGs in total.

Launch maneuvers

Only one aircraft has performed a launch maneuver