One "Admiral Makarov" Frigate has been deployed to the waters of the Black Sea.

Total possible salvo: 8 Kalibr cruise missiles.

~10 Kalibr cruise missiles were launched from 1 "Varshavyanka" Submarine and 1 "Admiral Makarov" Frigate off the coast of Cape Myskhako, Krasnodar Krai.

The first Kh-101 cruise missiles are expected to enter Ukrainian airspace in 40-60 minutes.

Its likely that additional strategic bombers have carried out launch maneuvers.

Kalibrs are expected to enter Ukrainian airspace in the next 30-40 minutes.

The number of Geran-2 drones in Ukrainian airspace remains somewhat low (50+).

They are clearly not launching all their drones that have been accumulated. I personally believe a lot are being reserved for a future attack without strategic bombers in the coming days.

The 9 Tu-95MS strategic bombers have likely launched their Kh-101s one after another, forming a "chain" of missiles.

Unidentified missile in Sumy Oblast

Likely Iskander-K

Disappeared

The target has not reappeared.

Was likely MLRS or a misidentification.

Kalibrs are expected to enter Ukrainian airspace shortly (if the launches were indeed real).

A strong explosion was heard in southern Crimea around 20 minutes ago.

Cause unknown.

Lviv Oblast is under attack from Russian Geran-2 drones.

Some of the missiles will fly here.

Kalibr launches did not occur.

There is still a submarine and frigate relatively far out at sea though

Russian Geran-2 drones are striking the Dobrotvir Thermal Power Plant in Lviv Oblast.

Gerans have also struck the 330 kV electrical substation in Shepetivka, Khmelnytskyi Oblast.

Continued explosions in Dobrotvir, Lviv Oblast.

Kh-101s are expected to enter Ukrainian airspace in the next 25 minutes.