No large attack tonight.

The highest threat is in place for tomorrow, meaning the probability of strategic bombers being used has increased.

Nothing is definite at the moment as some unusual Russian movements have taken place.

It could also be on new years. It's just too difficult to tell right now. I will update you all when I get more concrete information.

In the Stepnohirsk direction, Russian forces continued to advance and have made new progress in two different areas.

In the west, Russian forces continued to advance north through Prymorske. They were able to consolidate in new positions in the southern part of the village, including in a number of three-story buildings. DRGs continued to operate further north in the area of the village centre, and reached its northern streets, while others infiltrated further east through the Pererva Gulley

In the east, Russian forces continued to expand their zone of control northeast of Stepnohirsk, capturing new positions in the treelines west of the gulley leading from Stepnohirsk. Other forces infiltrated further into Lukyanivske, and are engaged in fighting for the residential part of the village. Fighting also continues for the central and northern parts of Stepnohirsk, where a grey-zone remains.

+ ~4.26 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

In the Omelnyk direction, Russian forces continued to advance following the fall of Hulyaipole and have made new progress south of the city.

Ukrainian forces have completed their withdrawal from the 2022-era fortifications east of the highway due to the risk of encirclement from the recent Russian advances in Hulyaipole. This allowed for the Russians to capture the remaining stretch of highway between Hulyaipole and Dorozhynyanka. Other assault groups advanced further southwest down the nearby gulley, capturing additional treeline positions.

+ ~2.31 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

In the Dobropillya direction, both Russian and Ukrainian forces have advanced in various different areas.

In the southwest, the frontline was corrected in favour of Ukraine after they carried out additional counterattacks around two weeks ago. They advanced east from the area of the pig farms, recapturing the rest of the road the Hryshyne, and consolidating in the treeline to the north. From there, they recaptured the forested areas on either side of the highway, including the intersection northwest of Svitle.

To the northeast, Russian forces continued their assault operations in Rodynske. They were able to recapture School No. 35 and some of the nearby 3-story buildings and are now assaulting Ukrainian positions in the remaining buildings to the west. Fighting continues for the northern low-rise residential area, where small assault groups from both sides are currently operating, and in the southwestern streets of the city.

In the northeast, Russian forces continued pushing the Ukrainians back from the rear of Rodynske. They advanced from their newly recaptured positions at the Krasnolymanskaya Mine, consolidating in the nearby treeline and forested areas. Small groups of infantry are now attempting to advance across the fields and reach the railway line. Additionally, the Russians managed to advance further north up the forests northeast of the mine, recapturing the mine shaft and the surrounding areas following a Ukrainian withdrawal back to the village of Sukhetske.

+ ~3.71 km² in favour of Ukraine.
+ ~3.12 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

In the Rai-Oleksandrivka direction, Russian forces continued to advance, capturing new positions in two differenat areas southwest of Siversk,

In the north, Russian forces continued to advance in the village of Riznykivka. They pushed further west down the southern bank of the Sukha River, capturing new positions in the direction of the central part of the village.

In the south, Russian forces captured the rest of a treeline and an adjacent forest west of Zvanivka, thereby fully aligning the front with the gulley stretching southwest from Riznykivka.

+ ~1.69 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

In the Lyman direction, Russian forces continued to advance southeast of Lyman and have made new progress in the village of Dibrova.

Russian forces resumed their assault operations from northern Dibrova and captured new positions in the nearby forests. From there, they entered the western streets of the main part of the village, capturing new positions there too. Other forces advanced west from the eastern streets, securing the central part. Fighting is ongoing for the southwestern streets.

+ ~0.75 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

Shocker

In the Lyman direction, Russian forces continued to advance and have captured new positions northeast of Svyatohirsk.

Building on their earlier success, Russian forces advanced further through the Sviati Hory National Park, capturing additional positions further southwest in the direction of the Sosnove - Oleksandrivka. DRGs have since infiltrated through the forests into the area of the Sosnove Railway Station.

+ ~1.38 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

In the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian forces continued their counterattacks and have made additional progress in western Kupyansk.

Following the capture of the Kupyansk Motor Transport College, Ukrainian forces began attacking northwest through the low-rise residential streets in the grey-zone. Other forces who were already advancing southeast from the highway linked up with them, physically encircling the remaining Russian formations entrenched in and around the Yuvileynyi high-rise micro-district.

+ ~0.27 km² in favour of Ukraine.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

In the Khotin direction, Russian forces continued their intensified assault operations and have made more progress south of Varachyne.

Following earlier assaults which saw Russia capture Varachyne and the defences south of the village, they continued advancing south, capturing additional treeline positions. Other assault groups advanced further south down the gulley to the east, capturing new positions in the forests there.

Ukrainian forces are responding by heavily striking Russian logistical routes to the Yablunivka - Varachyne sector with FPV drones. As a result of this and somewhat clearer weather conditions at times, Russian movement to and from positions is becoming much more difficult. A significant portion of supplies are now being carried by drone drops.

+ ~1.35 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

Iskander on Kharkiv OBlast

Explosion in Kharkiv

Iskander on Odesa from Crimea

Explosion in Odesa

Around an hour and a half ago, two Russian KAB glide-bombs impacted the southern suburbs of Zaporizhzhia City.

One civilian was wounded. No further details are known at this moment.

Yesterday's strike on Zaporizhzhia City targeted Workshop No. 35 of the Motor Sich Plant. The videos published by the Zaporizhzhia OVA were from outside the houses just across the street.

Coordinates: 47.83048, 35.19542

So, it appears that the next large-scale, combined missile and drone attack will either take place on the morning of new years', or January 2, with missiles likely targeting between 1am and 8am Kyiv time.

This attack will include strategic bombers, as well as other types of missiles.

- 2 Tu-95MS redeployed from Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast, to Belaya Airbase, Irkutsk Oblast. They were both equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Engels-2 Airbase.

- 2 Tu-95MS redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast, to Belaya Airbase. They have since been equipped with Kh-101 missiles.

- 1 Tu-95MS redeployed from Belaya Airbase to Engels-2 Airbase after being equipped with Kh-101 missiles.

- 5 Tu-95MS remain at Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast. They are equipped/being equipped with Kh-101 missiles.

- 1-2 Tu-160 strategic bombers at Ukrainka Airbase are equipped with Kh-101 missiles.

- 2 Tu-22m3 strategic bombers redeployed from Diaghilev Airbase, Ryazan Oblast, to Olenya Airbase. It's unclear if they are equipped with Kh-32 cruise missiles.

- 3-4 Tu-22m3 bombers are equipped with Kh-32 missiles at Engels-2 Airbase.

- At least 4 MiG-31K fighters are equipped with Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles at Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast.

- Iskander-M ballistic missiles and possibly Iskander-K cruise missiles were delivered to OTRK installations near Taganrog (Rostov Oblast), Kursk City, and other areas.

- Statuses of the Black Sea Fleet and missile carriers in the Caspian Sea are unknown, but it's likely that at least one of the two will be used in the next attack.

- An unprecedented accumulation of Geran-2 and Gerbera drones remains at all major launch sites near Ukraine.

Btw, this is essentially just a data dump. I'm not saying all of what is listed here will be used. Clarifications will continue to be made.

And no, this is a not a "response" to a non-existent Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's house.

This attack has been in preparation for the last 3.5 days.

Russia has never really done "responses" to anything, even if they say they do. Politically and emotionally charged decision-making doesn't seem to be a big thing in the Russian command, unlike some other countries.