Iskander on Kharkiv OBlast

Explosion in Kharkiv

Iskander on Odesa from Crimea

Explosion in Odesa

Around an hour and a half ago, two Russian KAB glide-bombs impacted the southern suburbs of Zaporizhzhia City.

One civilian was wounded. No further details are known at this moment.

Yesterday's strike on Zaporizhzhia City targeted Workshop No. 35 of the Motor Sich Plant. The videos published by the Zaporizhzhia OVA were from outside the houses just across the street.

Coordinates: 47.83048, 35.19542

So, it appears that the next large-scale, combined missile and drone attack will either take place on the morning of new years', or January 2, with missiles likely targeting between 1am and 8am Kyiv time.

This attack will include strategic bombers, as well as other types of missiles.

- 2 Tu-95MS redeployed from Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast, to Belaya Airbase, Irkutsk Oblast. They were both equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Engels-2 Airbase.

- 2 Tu-95MS redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast, to Belaya Airbase. They have since been equipped with Kh-101 missiles.

- 1 Tu-95MS redeployed from Belaya Airbase to Engels-2 Airbase after being equipped with Kh-101 missiles.

- 5 Tu-95MS remain at Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast. They are equipped/being equipped with Kh-101 missiles.

- 1-2 Tu-160 strategic bombers at Ukrainka Airbase are equipped with Kh-101 missiles.

- 2 Tu-22m3 strategic bombers redeployed from Diaghilev Airbase, Ryazan Oblast, to Olenya Airbase. It's unclear if they are equipped with Kh-32 cruise missiles.

- 3-4 Tu-22m3 bombers are equipped with Kh-32 missiles at Engels-2 Airbase.

- At least 4 MiG-31K fighters are equipped with Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles at Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast.

- Iskander-M ballistic missiles and possibly Iskander-K cruise missiles were delivered to OTRK installations near Taganrog (Rostov Oblast), Kursk City, and other areas.

- Statuses of the Black Sea Fleet and missile carriers in the Caspian Sea are unknown, but it's likely that at least one of the two will be used in the next attack.

- An unprecedented accumulation of Geran-2 and Gerbera drones remains at all major launch sites near Ukraine.

Btw, this is essentially just a data dump. I'm not saying all of what is listed here will be used. Clarifications will continue to be made.

And no, this is a not a "response" to a non-existent Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's house.

This attack has been in preparation for the last 3.5 days.

Russia has never really done "responses" to anything, even if they say they do. Politically and emotionally charged decision-making doesn't seem to be a big thing in the Russian command, unlike some other countries.

It also wont target Ukrainian government buildings. Ignore the propaganda noise and be smarter than it. These sorts of missile attacks are nothing new.

Everyone will forget about this in a few days.

Yesterday, due to recent Russian advances, the Pokrovs'ke Territorial Community announced mandatory evacuation orders for 42 settlements, including the town of Pokrovs'ke, in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Interestingly, a significant portion of the villages named are already under Russian control or contested. This is likely due to a combination of false reports being sent, and the announcement being delayed to support official reports on the defence of the area.

The Chernihiv OVA announced mandatory evacuation orders for civilians in 14 unspecified border villages of Chernihiv Oblast.

It's likely that these are: Senkivka, Khrinivka, Klyusy, Hirsk, Yeline, Mistky, Salne, Huta-Studenetska, Baranivka, Bleshnya, Mkhy, Krasni Lozy, Karopvychi, and Hati.

AMK, I don't know if you read the comments at all, but can I have a suggestion about the map reports? They sound dry, detailless and lacks depth. "They advanced, further taking bla bla. Then they advanced to the south." Why? How? What was the key factors in this? What is the probable long term goal in doing so? What are the strategies (or tactics in this case)? I think WeebUnion is a masterclass in this, it's not my place to teach you how to do your job, but I really admire your work overall and you seem like a guy whose open to criticism. Keep up the good work and thanks.

I'll respond to this as a post as I'd like more people to see this.

I add that kind of information in where I can, but these map updates have always been more situational. I just don't have enough information on that stuff, so I omit it most of the time. I could make guesses, but I'm not confident in that considering how much more unpredictable things have gotten as this war evolves.

As an analyst, it's important to understand that you don't and can't know everything. For me, speculating about the processes of an attack wouldn't be analysing things. But, I do write separate posts with this sort of information once the dust has settled and things are clarified.

The Ukrainian Group of Forces "South" published footage claiming to show their forces clearing Hulyaipole.

In reality, the video was recorded in the town of Zaliznychne, 6 km away.

Coordinates: 47.6475668, 36.1651338

3 Su-57s flying from Rostov Oblast to the Sea of Azov.

A Su-34 is also airborne in the area.

Su-34 is over Russian controlled Kherson Oblast. It launched a KAB/Grom-E1 at Kherson Oblast.

Flight of the glide-bombs, flying towards Vysokopillia and then likely the Zelenodolsk Thermal Power Plant.

The 3 Su-57s took off from Akhtubinsk Airbase, Astrakhan Oblast.

They are flying over the Sea of Azov right now.

The KABs disappeared west of Novovorontsovka, Kherson Oblast.

Iskander launch from Kursk