Following a brief lull in activity, likely due to weather conditions, Russian strategic aviation is back on the move and have completed their preparations for the next combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine.
- 4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast, to Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast, after being equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. They have since flown north to Olenya Airbase.
- 3 Tu-95MS are still stationed at Olenya Airbase, alongside the 4 which have returned there, bringing the total concentration of aircraft there to 7.
- 3 Tu-95MS redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase to Belaya Airbase, Irkutsk Oblast, after being equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.
- 2-3 Tu-160 strategic bombers remain equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Ukrainka Airbase.
So, in short, 10 Tu-95MS and 2-3 Tu-160 strategic bombers are currently equipped with missiles, similar to the attacks carried out in December 2025.
- Additionally, as I have previously reported, this next attack is likely to include several Iskander-M ballistic missiles, a minimum of 6 Kalibr cruise missiles, and 4-8 Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles. It may also include Iskander-K cruise missiles.
- A minimum of 400 Geran-2 drones will be used, however this number could be significantly higher considering the current concentrations of drones at launch sites surrounding Ukraine.
- 4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast, to Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast, after being equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. They have since flown north to Olenya Airbase.
- 3 Tu-95MS are still stationed at Olenya Airbase, alongside the 4 which have returned there, bringing the total concentration of aircraft there to 7.
- 3 Tu-95MS redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase to Belaya Airbase, Irkutsk Oblast, after being equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.
- 2-3 Tu-160 strategic bombers remain equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Ukrainka Airbase.
So, in short, 10 Tu-95MS and 2-3 Tu-160 strategic bombers are currently equipped with missiles, similar to the attacks carried out in December 2025.
- Additionally, as I have previously reported, this next attack is likely to include several Iskander-M ballistic missiles, a minimum of 6 Kalibr cruise missiles, and 4-8 Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles. It may also include Iskander-K cruise missiles.
- A minimum of 400 Geran-2 drones will be used, however this number could be significantly higher considering the current concentrations of drones at launch sites surrounding Ukraine.
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S-300 launches from the southeastern outskirts of Belgorod City
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AMK Mapping
S-300 launches from the southeastern outskirts of Belgorod City
The rocket(s) were likely intercepted. A drone attack continues on Belgorod.
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AMK Mapping
Repeated MLRS launches to Shebekino and Belgorod.
These don't seem to be targeting Belgorod City, but rather Shebekino or areas to the north.
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High threat of Kh-59/69 cruise missile launches from Su-34s in Kursk Oblast.
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AMK Mapping
High threat of Kh-59/69 cruise missile launches from Su-34s in Kursk Oblast.
Correction: The threat is due to a Su-57 flying south along the border between Oryol and Lipetsk Oblasts, in the direction of its launch lines in eastern Kursk Oblast.
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AMK Mapping
Correction: The threat is due to a Su-57 flying south along the border between Oryol and Lipetsk Oblasts, in the direction of its launch lines in eastern Kursk Oblast.
A Su-34 is also flying in the area of the Kursk-Belgorod border.
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The Su-57 has entered eastern Kursk Oblast, approaching its launch lines.
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AMK Mapping
The missile (presumably Kh-69) is flying on a southwestern course past Trostyanets, Sumy Oblast, to Zinkiv, Poltava Oblast.
Changed course to Hadyach, Poltava Oblast at an altitude of ~600 metres
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AMK Mapping
Course remains largely unchanged, around 60 km from Pyryatyn, Poltava Oblast. It is repeatedly disappearing from radars.
It was shot down by Ukrainian air defence over northern Poltava Oblast.
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