The Su-34 flew away from the launch lines and is now circling east of Kursk City.

Presumably it carried out a launch maneuver over eastern Kursk Oblast.

The missile (presumably Kh-69) is flying on a southwestern course past Trostyanets, Sumy Oblast, to Zinkiv, Poltava Oblast.

Changed course to Hadyach, Poltava Oblast at an altitude of ~600 metres

Flying past the southern outskirts of Hadyach in the direction of Zavodske, Poltava Oblast.

Course remains largely unchanged, around 60 km from Pyryatyn, Poltava Oblast.

It is repeatedly disappearing from radars.

It was shot down by Ukrainian air defence over northern Poltava Oblast.

The next large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine is expected this morning.

- Activity is recorded on a strategic command and control frequency.

- Multiple Kalibr carriers at Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai, are equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles.

- 3 more MiG-31K fighters were redeployed to Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, presumably after being equipped with Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles

- Geran-2 drones have been launched and are active in Ukrainian airspace, although mass launches have not begun yet.

This all means that it’s likely that 3 Tu-95MS strategic bombers are airborne from Belaya Airbase, Irkutsk Oblast, along with 2-3 Tu-160s from Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast, but are just not detected yet. They should reach their launch lines in the next 8-9 hours.

The target of this attack will likely primarily be energy infrastructure in the western regions of Ukraine.

The highest threat is to Lviv, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts.

The airspace in parts of southwestern Ryazan and eastern Tambov Oblasts has been closed.

These are where some of the launch lines for MiG-31K fighters are. It’s expected that they will carry out combat sorties in the next few hours.

Approximately 40 Geran-2 drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace, however a portion of these are currently striking targets in Talalaivka, Bakhmach, Shostka, Slavutych, and Berestyn, in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.

The 3 Tu-95MS strategic bombers from Belaya Airbase are now detected, flying towards the city of Tyumen. They should reach their launch lines in the next 5 hours.

Additionally, the 3 Tu-160 strategic bombers I reported on earlier have also been detected, flying from Ukrainka Airbase to their launch lines, which they should reach at a similar time to the Tu-95s.

So the attack will presumably go as I laid out yesterday.

- 3 Tu-160s from Ukrainka Airbase
- 3 Tu-95MS from Belaya Airbase
- 7 Tu-95MS from Olenya Airbase

Departures from Olenya Airbase should take place in the next 90 minutes.

At least 4 Tu-95MS are now airborne from Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast, flying south to their launch lines.

Correction: only 5 Tu-95MS were stationed at Olenya. They are all airborne, flying south to their launch lines.

The other 2 Tu-95MS were at Engels-2 Airbase and never ended up redeploying last week.

Preparations for departures of MiG-31K fighters from Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast is underway

Reports of Tu-22m3 strategic bomber departures are false, however they may take place later on.

MiG-31K departure from Savasleika AIrbase