Sorry for the lack of posting recently. I'm a bit behind on map updates as I've been very busy irl lately. I plan to get back to normal posting rates for the next few weeks.

Russia is likely planning to carry out another large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine in the coming days.

- 1 Tu-95MS strategic bomber redeployed from Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast, to Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast, where it was equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles before likely relocating to Diaghilev Airbase, Ryazan Oblast.

- 4 Tu-95MS redeployed from Olenya and Engels-2 Airbases to Ukrainka Airbase in the far east, where they are being equipped with missiles alongside a 5th Tu-95MS.

- 1 Tu-160 strategic bomber redeployed from an unknown airbase (possibly Borisoglebskoye Airbase in Kazan) to Ukrainka Airbase.

- Iskander-M ballistic missiles and possibly Iskander-K cruise missiles were delivered to OTRK installations in Bryansk Oblast, and possibly Kursk Oblast, by IL-76MD cargo planes.

- Iskander-M ballistic missiles were delivered to OTRK installations near Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, by an AN-124-100 "Ruslan" cargo plane.

- Accumulation of Geran-2/Geran-3/Gerbera drones continues at all the main launch sites near Ukraine.

And of course, there were also those BM-35 drone flights over Kyiv recently, which were likely scouting out Patriot installation locations and the condition of power plants.

Although, if strategic aviation is used like I think it will be, the attack would be more likely to target energy infrastructure in the western regions of Ukraine.

Possible Neptune cruise missile launch from Kharkiv Oblast to Belgorod.

Russian S-300/400 air defence is operating.

Two aerial targets are detected, flying from Belgorod Oblast to Voronezh Oblast on a northeastern course.

Both Neptune cruise missiles were intercepted by Russian air defence near Novy Oskol, Belgorod Oblast.

Around 50 minutes ago, a Russian Su-34 aircraft crashed off the coast of Odesa Oblast.

The aircraft, which had taken off from Khanskaya Airbase, Republic of Adygea, flew on an extremely strange route, coming within 10 km of the coast of Odesa Oblast without cover from any Su-35 fighters, before making a sudden U-turn around Zmiinyi Island and crashing into the Black Sea. For reference, most launches of glide-bombs take place at around 45 km from the nearest Ukrainian-controlled territory.

As the aircraft was already rapidly losing altitude prior to performing its U-turn, it's highly unlikely that it was shot down by Ukrainian air defence.

Currently, Russian Ka-27 and Mi-8 helicopters are flying to the crash location to search for the pilots.

Reports state that a second Su-34 crashed, this time while attempting to carry out a combat sortie in Kursk Oblast at around 3:30 pm Kyiv time - around 7 hours ago.

Apparently the aircraft suffered a technical malfunction, with the crew being killed as a result. The timing of the crash lines up with departures from Engels-2 Airbase, which is where this plane reportedly took off from.

As of now this remains unconfirmed, but it could be what Fighterbomber is referring to in his recent post on the crash.

Update: The aircraft that crashed over the Black Sea appears to have been a Su-30 fighter (not 100% confirmed yet).

The Su-34 crash over Kursk Oblast has also been confirmed.

In the Rai-Oleksandrivka direction, Russian forces continued their offensive operations, advancing on a wide front towards Slovyansk.

In the southwest, Russian forces continued to slowly advance in Minkivka, improving their positions in the northern part of the village and in the adjacent forest.

To the northeast, the Russians established control over several treelines on the tactical heights overlooking Pryvillya, allowing for deeper penetrations across the tributary of the Vasyukivka River into the northern part of the village.

Further northeast, Russian forces expanded their foothold in southeastern Nykyforivka, and advanced west from the village into the nearby treelines. At the same time, they were able to capture a number of positions southeast of the village, while infiltrations were carried out across the Vasyukivka River towards the centre of the settlement.

Additionally, Russian forces continued taking positions in the treelines west of the gulley that runs southwest from Riznykivka, while further improving their positions in Riznykivka itself where Ukrainian forces are carrying out continued counterattacks, slowing the Russian progress there.

+ ~10.08 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

In the Lyman direction, Russian forces continued their offensive and have made new progress in four different areas.

In the south, Russian forces cleared the remaining Ukrainian positions in the forests south of the highway just outside Lyman, and established control over much of the grey-zone to the north. From there, they were able to entrench in the first streets of the Lisovyi District. Ukrainian forces are bringing in additional reserves to the city in an attempt to contain the Russian advance, however increased Russian strikes on crossings and pontoon bridges over the Siverskyi Donets River are making this incredibly difficult and costly.

To the northeast, Russian forces established control over a number of trenches along the Lyman - Zarichne Road. They also resumed their assault operations in the Masliakivka District of Lyman.

To the northwest, following deep infiltrations into the city, Russian forces consolidated in a number of positions on Pidstepna and Kolhospna Streets in northern Lyman. Infiltrations continued towards Slobozhanska Street.

In the north, Russian forces improved their positions in the forested areas northeast of Lyman, and are carrying out attacks on Ukrainian strongpoints in the direction of Stavky. At the same time, attacks are being carried out from Stavky to the the east, as well as on the agricultural buildings on the western outskirts of the village.

+ ~2.58 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

In the Svyatohirsk direction, Russian forces continued their assault operations and have broken through Ukrainian defences in Oleksandrivka,

Following earlier entries into the village, Russian forces managed to consolidate in the remaining treeline positions to the east, and captured the eastern part of the settlement. Other assault groups also entered from the forests to the south, entrenching in the southern and southwestern parts. Heavy fighting is ongoing.

+ ~1.04 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

In the Borova direction, Russian forces intensified their assault operations in the direction of the Oskil River, recapturing previously lost positions.

Following progress being made north of the Kruhlyakivsky Reservoir, Russian forces began advancing south of it, capturing treeline positions there. From there, they crossed the Lozova River and infiltrated the southeastern part of Nova Kruhlyakivka.

Additionally, the Russians recaptured numerous treeline positions to the southwest, allowing for them to infiltrate the southeastern streets of Bohuslavka.

+ ~4.68 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll