The number of Geran-2/Gerbera drones detected in Ukrainian airspace has tripled to over 150.

Iskander threat from Bryansk

Likely Russian S-300/400 air defence activity against Ukrainian UAVs

Around 100 Geran-2 drones are flying to/though Poltava Oblast, in the direction of Kremenchuk.

At least 4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers have departed from Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast, flying south to their launch lines in the Engels/Volgograd/Caspian Sea area.

It is possible that these are being mixed up with Tu-22m3 strategic bombers, but this seems unlikely to me.

Estimated times for the Tu-95MS to reach their launch lines:

- Southeastern Nizhny Novgorod Oblast: ~2 hrs.
- Mokshansky District, Penza Oblast: ~2 hrs, 10 mins.
- Engels District, Saratov Oblast: ~2 hrs, 40 mins.
- Kalachyovksy District, Volograd Oblast: ~3 hrs.
- Limansky District, Astrakhan Oblast: ~3 hrs 45 mins.

Additionally, it's possible that 2-4 Tu-160M strategic bombers are airborne from Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast.

Possible departures of at least 3 Tu-22m3 strategic bombers from Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast.

Unconfirmed as of now.

The Tu-160M departure from Ukrainka is confirmed. At least 1 Tu-160M flew past Krasnoyarsk in the direction of the launch lines in the Volgograd/Caspian area. It is expected to reach Volgograd Oblast in around 3 hours.

The 3 Tu-22m3 departures from Olenya are also confirmed.

The Russian Geran-4/5 jet-drone from earlier impacted the "Roshen" logistics centre in Yahotyn, Kyiv Oblast. A large fire is now burning there.

Coordinates: 50.245143, 31.8153989

The number of Geran-2/Gerbera drones detected in Ukrainian airspace has increased to over 200.

The drones are all flying to western Ukraine, which will be also be attacked with missiles later on.

For the record, this Russian missile attack that will take place tonight isn't a response to the assassination attempt in Moscow.

Russia doesn't do retaliatory strikes. This attack has been in preparation for nearly 2 weeks, and is a "part 2" to the attack a few days ago which only used a portion of the missiles allocated.

General movements of Russian Geran-2/Gerbera drones.

Approximately 200 drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace right now.

Possible launches of Kalibr cruise missiles from Novorossiysk Naval Base

1 Admiral Essen Frigate has launched 8 Kalibr cruise missiles from just outside the naval base.

They should enter Ukrainian airspace in the next 30 minutes.

Approximate locations of Russian strategic aviation.

4 Tu-95MS are flying past Yaroslavl Oblast to the launch lines near the village of Uzmore, Saratov Oblast. They may carry out simulated launch maneuvers from Penza Oblast.

1 Tu-160M is flying past Yekaterinburg, also towards the launch lines near the village of Uzmore.

They are all expected to reach Uzmore in around 55 minutes.

The second Admiral Essen frigate has also launched 8 Kalibr cruise missiles. A total of 16 Kalibrs are flying towards Ukraine and will likely enter via Beryslav District, Kherson Oblast.

For those who aren't interested in the strike coverage, you can mute the channel notifications for 8 hours or so.

I'm saying this because most people who mute the channel select "mute forever", and end up forgetting to ever unmute it again 🥲

The first 8 Kalibr cruise missiles should enter Ukrainian airspace in the next 15 minutes.