Patriot launches

Flying to CHP-5

Explosions in Kyiv

Current missile map for today's combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine:

So far, a minimum of 19 Iskander-M ballistic missiles have been launched from 5 different locations in Crimea, Rostov Oblast, and Bryansk Oblast, targeting Kyiv, Dnipro, Pavlohrad, and Lozova.

Additionally, at least 4 Iskander-K cruise missiles launched from Millerovo Airbase, Rostov Oblast, targeted Dnipro.

At least 3 Iskander-Ms have been shot down so far, all of which were targeting Kyiv,

The following has been hit so far:

- CHP-4 Combined Heat and Power Plant in Kyiv.
- CHP-5 Combined Heat and Power Plant in Kyiv.
- CHP-6 Combined Heat and Power Plant in Kyiv.
- Prydniprovska Power Plant in Dnipro.
- Unknown targets in Pavlohrad and Lozova.

More missiles are expected to be launched throughout the night/morning

An Iskander was launched from Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, but disappeared from radars near Hulyaipole, Zaporizhhzhia Oblast.

It may have impacted the "Zaporizka" 750 kV substation

Updated map:

8 Iskander-Ms are confirmed to have been used against Kyiv, and 3 against Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast.

This brings the total confirmed number of Iskander-M launches so far to 21.

Ukraine's airspace continues to remain clear of missiles, however there is a continued threat for at least the next 2 hours.

MiG-31K fighters from Savasleika Airbase may launch Kinzhal missiles, and launches of Iskander-K cruise missiles may take place from Kursk Oblast. The latter of these is more likely.

At least U.S. Airforce 16 KC-135 refuelling aircraft, and 1 RC-135 Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft, are seen at Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar from a Chinese satellite.

The U.S. continues to move massive amounts of firepower to the vicinity of Iran.

Ukraine's airspace is practically clear of aerial targets. 1 Geran-2 drone is left, flying from Vilshany to Kharkiv City.

The usage of Iskander-K and Kinzhal missiles is not yet ruled out for the next couple of hours.

A very good video by @Willy_OAM breaking down a number of statistics of the war in Ukraine, and applying nuance to a lot of the claims made.

I recommend watching it if you want some clarity on what all these famous numbers you keep seeing mean.

(Don't worry, not a paid promotion or advertisement)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8i_AucXR9SA

I actually agree with most of what DeepState is saying here.

The zone of control has become far more complicated to accurately interpret and represent, and many parts of the frontline experience what is called a "layered pie" where Ukrainian and Russian positions are mixed, often encircling each other, and resulting in an extremely fluid and dynamic front.

This trend has only been becoming more and more common, which is why my map has been showing increasingly larger grey-zones, such as in the Kupyansk direction.

For me personally, I like to map the frontline in a more generalised form. If there are a couple of Ukrainian soldiers stuck in a position 5 km from friendly troops, and Russia has already established solid logistics going through there, I will mark it as Russian-controlled. If Russia has a limited presence of infantry in an area, but there are no visible signs of Ukrainian infantry there, I will also mark it as Russian-controlled, even if the process of proper Russian consolidation isn't fully completed yet (which would obviously result in these areas being at higher risk of Ukrainian incursions).

Now of course, everyone will interpret developments differently, and with the continued trend of the frontline becoming less and less defined, different maps will show larger and larger differences between them.

This is fine, but I think where DeepState has gone wrong and will continue to go wrong is skewing their grey-zone - or now "infiltration zone" - too much in favour of Ukraine, making it overlap much more with actual Russian-controlled territory, and cover much less of the real infiltration zone. Now of course, this is expected with DeepState being under constant pressure from Ukrainian authorities, and is evident when they constantly don't even add a grey-zone for Russian soldiers being geolocated in "Ukrainian-controlled" territory.

Ukrainian forces have recaptured the village of Kosivtseve, Omelnyk direction, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~170.
Total land area: ~0.58 km².

The attack which took place was the attack I have been warning about for the last few days.

I warned yesterday about how it would probably take place tonight. The reason why I didn't post another warning earlier today was because I was actually beginning to doubt myself, and was therefore waiting for more info, but it turned out my prediction was right again 🤣.

There is still a threat of an attack involving at least 5 Tu-95MS strategic bombers, as well as Tu-22m3 bombers for the next few days, which I will provide more information on when it becomes available.

Last night and this morning, another large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack was carried out on Ukraine.

Missiles launched:

~10 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations south of the village of Susanine, Crimea (45.47357, 33.71182).

~5 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations southeast of Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast.

~4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations northwest of Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast.

~2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installation(s) southeast of Dzhankoi, Crimea.

~2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installation(s) near Liski, Voronezh Oblast.

~1 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched from an OTRK installation near Taganrog, Rostov Oblast.

~2 Kh-59/59 cruise missiles launched from a Su-34 fighter-bomber at its launch lines east of Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast.

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Total missiles launched:

~24 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
~2 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles

~26 missiles in total.

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Ukrainian air defence work:

As of the time of writing, it appears that Ukrainian air defence was able to intercept at least 4 Iskander-Ms.

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The main targets for this strike was Ukrainian energy infrastructure in Kyiv and Dnipro. The following was targeted:

- Prydniprovska Power Plant, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (48.40533, 35.11202) by at least 11 Iskander-Ms and 2 Kh-59/69s.

- CHP-5 Power & Heat and Power Plant, Kyiv Oblast (50.39403, 30.56928) by ~3 Iskander-Ms.

- CHP-4 Combined Heat and Power Plant, Kyiv Oblast (50.44693, 30.64255) by ~1 Iskander-M.

- CHP-6 Combined Heat and Power Plant, Kyiv Oblast (50.53188, 30.66309) by ~1 Iskander-M.

- Unknown target near Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast by ~3 Iskander-Ms.

- Unknown target in/near Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by ~1 Iskander-M.

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Keep in mind, the numbers of missiles launched may be slightly higher than what I've listed, as the number of missiles detected is sometimes lower than actual launches.

The interception rate over Kyiv wasn't bad (~4/9).

Not many Patriot interceptors were used during last night's attack, so they definitely got very lucky, sparing CHP-4 and CHP-6 from most of the damage, while CHP-5 bore the brunt of the attack.

I believe Russia intended to strike all 3 of the CHPs with 3 Iskander-M ballistic missiles each, but 2 each were shot down while targeting CHP-4 and 6, and the damage from the 1 impact to each plant is apparently very minimal.

But either way, Ukraine's Patriot interceptor stockpile will be getting very low now, as they have probably burned through most of the ones they received recently (most of which were sent to defend Kyiv).

A lot of the rumours about the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Pokrovs'ke/Hulyaipole directions has been confirmed.

The situation looks very bad for the Russians here...

The Ukrainians were able to break through the main forward Russian fortifications and are now pushing even deeper.

MiG-31K departures from Savasleika Airbase

Nope. This is an Oreshnik threat

Sirens are sounding in all regions of Ukraine. Will wait 15 mins until all clear