The attack which took place was the attack I have been warning about for the last few days.

I warned yesterday about how it would probably take place tonight. The reason why I didn't post another warning earlier today was because I was actually beginning to doubt myself, and was therefore waiting for more info, but it turned out my prediction was right again 🤣.

There is still a threat of an attack involving at least 5 Tu-95MS strategic bombers, as well as Tu-22m3 bombers for the next few days, which I will provide more information on when it becomes available.

Last night and this morning, another large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack was carried out on Ukraine.

Missiles launched:

~10 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations south of the village of Susanine, Crimea (45.47357, 33.71182).

~5 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations southeast of Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast.

~4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations northwest of Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast.

~2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installation(s) southeast of Dzhankoi, Crimea.

~2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installation(s) near Liski, Voronezh Oblast.

~1 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched from an OTRK installation near Taganrog, Rostov Oblast.

~2 Kh-59/59 cruise missiles launched from a Su-34 fighter-bomber at its launch lines east of Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast.

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Total missiles launched:

~24 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
~2 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles

~26 missiles in total.

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Ukrainian air defence work:

As of the time of writing, it appears that Ukrainian air defence was able to intercept at least 4 Iskander-Ms.

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The main targets for this strike was Ukrainian energy infrastructure in Kyiv and Dnipro. The following was targeted:

- Prydniprovska Power Plant, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (48.40533, 35.11202) by at least 11 Iskander-Ms and 2 Kh-59/69s.

- CHP-5 Power & Heat and Power Plant, Kyiv Oblast (50.39403, 30.56928) by ~3 Iskander-Ms.

- CHP-4 Combined Heat and Power Plant, Kyiv Oblast (50.44693, 30.64255) by ~1 Iskander-M.

- CHP-6 Combined Heat and Power Plant, Kyiv Oblast (50.53188, 30.66309) by ~1 Iskander-M.

- Unknown target near Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast by ~3 Iskander-Ms.

- Unknown target in/near Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by ~1 Iskander-M.

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Keep in mind, the numbers of missiles launched may be slightly higher than what I've listed, as the number of missiles detected is sometimes lower than actual launches.

The interception rate over Kyiv wasn't bad (~4/9).

Not many Patriot interceptors were used during last night's attack, so they definitely got very lucky, sparing CHP-4 and CHP-6 from most of the damage, while CHP-5 bore the brunt of the attack.

I believe Russia intended to strike all 3 of the CHPs with 3 Iskander-M ballistic missiles each, but 2 each were shot down while targeting CHP-4 and 6, and the damage from the 1 impact to each plant is apparently very minimal.

But either way, Ukraine's Patriot interceptor stockpile will be getting very low now, as they have probably burned through most of the ones they received recently (most of which were sent to defend Kyiv).

A lot of the rumours about the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Pokrovs'ke/Hulyaipole directions has been confirmed.

The situation looks very bad for the Russians here...

The Ukrainians were able to break through the main forward Russian fortifications and are now pushing even deeper.

MiG-31K departures from Savasleika Airbase

Nope. This is an Oreshnik threat

Sirens are sounding in all regions of Ukraine. Will wait 15 mins until all clear

There is unconfirmed information on a launch of an Oreshnik missile.

If there was a launch, the missile cannot be detected until its falling on its target. We will have to wait a maximum of 8 minutes.

4 minutes left

2 minutes

1 minute

The "launch" either did not take place, or was a test launch.

The Ukrainian Air Force seems to think something *could* have been launched, so there is still a threat for the next 5 minutes.

The air raid alerts have been lifted across Ukraine.

I bet we'll see another conspiracy that the Oreshnik failed and fell apart over Russia after the washing machine components used to construct it malfunctioned, paired with another lovely video of a meteor shower on Kazakhstan 😊

Ukrainian forces have re-established control over the village of Novoiakovlivka, Komyshuvakha direction, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~566.
Total land area: ~2.61 km².

The fighting for Novoiakovlivka lasted approximately 1 month, 7 days.

Ukrainian forces have recaptured the village of Nove Zaporzhzhya, Omelnyk direction, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~103.
Total land area: ~1.00 km².

The second battle for Nove Zaporzhzhya lasted more than 1 month, 15 days.

Ukrainian forces have recaptured the village of Stepove, Pokrovs'ke direction, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~16.
Total land area: ~0.32 km².

The fighting for Stepove lasted less than 3 days.

(PART 1) Situational update on the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Hulyaipole/Pokrovs'ke direction as of February 12, 2026:

On February 5, coinciding with the disconnection of Russian Starlink terminals and heavy shelling of Russian positions, Ukraine launched a series of coordinated counterattacks and clearing operations, which have now bloomed into a localised counteroffensive operation.

The current "main tactical goal" of this operation appears to be to cut off the Russian salient running along the Yanchur River from the Zlahoda - Verbove line to the Pishchane - Andriivka line (highlighted in red on the map). As such, the attack is taking place in two main directions:

1. The first, and largest direction, is from the north. During January and February, Ukrainian forces accumulated significant infantry at multiple bridgeheads south of the Vovcha River which they were able to retain during Russia's Autumn-Winter offensive in this direction, and used these to launch a coordinated series of clearing operations against lightly-manned and lightly-consolidated Russian positions. They were able to relatively quickly seize large portions of these positions, including the villages of Oleksiivka, Sosnivka and Vovche, and subsequently began moving further south to the main Russian fortifications which lie approximately along the former Ukrainian defensive line.

Since then, Ukrainian forces have penetrated this line at multiple points. The deepest penetration took place west of the village of Stepove (which was also recaptured), where they took several strongpoints, and subsequently crossed the tributary of the Yanchur River, propelling south towards the border between Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Here, they were able to recapture several treelines and strongpoints, and began pushing east and west in an attempt to broaden their bridgehead. In the east, the Ukrainians broke into the village of Kalnivske and managed to entrench in the western houses Fighting is ongoing for the rest of the settlement. Ukrainian DRGs had already been operating here in the days leading up to this penetration. In the west, they began pushing southwest through the treelines, in the direction of the eastern bank of the Yanchur River.

Meanwhile, on left flank of this deep penetration, Ukrainian assault groups managed to break through from the newly recaptured village of Sosnivka, to the Berezove - Ternove line, entering and capturing the northern part of the latter, and reaching the northeastern outskirts of the former. On the right flank, they continued clearing treeline positions in the direction of Novooleksandrivka.

(PART 2 BELOW ⬇️)

(PART 2) Situational update on the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Hulyaipole/Pokrovs'ke direction as of February 12, 2026:

2. The second general direction of the counteroffensive is taking place from the east. Here, the Ukrainians cannot boast of as many gains, mainly due to the fact that the Russians concentrated a significantly larger amount forces here for their offensive west of Hulyaipole, and are therefore much more dug-in at forward positions. After recapturing Ternuvate and Prydorozhnje (which occurred prior to the beginning of this counteroffensive), Ukrainian forces recaptured the neighbouring village of Kosivtseve, which the Russians were unable to hold due to the loss of Ternuvate. Ukrainian forces also recaptured positions in northwest of Pryluky after their initial raid into the northern part of the village failed.

Meanwhile, after managing to bring in significant reinforcements to the salient east of the Haichur River, which at the time was incrementally shrinking amid a crawling Russian advance, Ukrainian forces began intensively assaulting Russian positions. They were able to drive the Russians out of the southern half of Nove Zaporizhzhya, fully bringing the village back under their control, although the earlier raid on neighbouring Dobropillya failed. They were also able to eliminate the Russian wedge southeast of Nove Zaporizhzhya which had aimed to squeeze the Ukrainians out of the village, and secured several strongpoints further east in the direction of Solodke and Zlatopil. Attacks are now taking place further southeast and east.

I've marked in yellow on the map where Ukraine is currently heavily shelling Russian positions and fortifications. All of the attacks from the north are taking place under extremely heavy cover from artillery, MLRS, and drones.

The Ukrainian pincers are beginning to turn "inwards" towards the "gut" of the Russian salient, however the flanks of these penetrations have not been fully secured. Notably, several Russian strongpoints remain northwest and northeast of Berezove, which are yet to be cleared and are still being shelled. Additionally, Berezove is still under full Russian control as of February 11, while Ternove is contested. Ukrainian forces are also yet to eliminate the Russian bridgehead over the Haichur River west of Dobropillya and have also not taken the important strongpoints east of Dobropillya to protect the push to the northeast towards the Yehorivka - Zlahoda line.

I will probably make another post soon going over the tactical and strategic implications of this counteroffensive, and why it is taking place.

Notably, it is taking place in coordination with much smaller clearing operations in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and, in short, appears to be part of a larger coordinated effort aimed at eliminating the threat of encirclement for the city of Orikhiv for the near future, which has slowly seen Russian flanks building from the east (in the area of Hulyaipole and Pokrovs'ke) and from the west (in the area of Prymorske and Komyshuvakha).