It seems the Russians retreated from one of their bridgeheads west of the Haichur River (the one used to attack Ternuvate last week) due to the risk of encirclement.

The United States withdrew from the Tanf base on February, 11. This base was key to destabilising the Syrian government, combating the Iranian presence and allowing ISIS to strengthen for eight years. With the fall of the previous political regime and the Iranian withdrawal from Syria, the US role has ended, putting an end to its in the Syrian desert of Homs and relocating its forces to eastern Syria, where it will continue to maintain its presence to preserve control of the oil wells and supervise the fragile situation in the northeast of the country after the fall of the SDF project. This withdrawal comes just days after the Russian army withdrew from its base in Qamishli in a redeployment that aims to focus on the coast. For the time being, the Turkish presence remains unchanged, with a possible increase in the future.

As usual, all the recent map updates are available on my interactive map.

I'll probably be too busy and sleep deprived to publish ordinary map updates today, but I'll aim for getting those out tomorrow. You have to remember, this channel is ran by a single person who has other work and responsibilities to take care of outside all of this.

Naturally, this can create delays in updates, as I simply cannot cover everything while simultaneously keeping up with my day-to-day life activities.

Link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll=47.972743277699266%2C36.237619512610394&z=10

Just realised, it’s been nearly two years since the Ocheretyne breakthrough….

Russia is planning another large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which will take place either tomorrow night or the night after.

Russia has accumulated dozens of Iskander-M ballistic missiles and RM-48U S-400 decoy missiles over the last 1-2 weeks, and has concentrated them at various launch locations, especially Bryansk Oblast.

The highest threat is to Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv Oblasts. If anyone is in those regions right now, be extremely careful.

The highest threat is in place for tomorrow night, specifically around 12am-3am Kyiv time.

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The usual energy objects are at risk:

Kyiv Oblast: CHP-4, CHP-5, CHP-6, Trypillya TPP, Kyiv HPP, Kyiv 750 kV substation.

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Prydniprovska TPP, Kryvyi Rih TPP.

Kharkiv Oblast: TEC-5, Zmiivska TPP.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Dnipro HPP, Zaporizka 750 kV substation.

Yesterday afternoon, two Russian Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched from Bryansk Oblast impacted the city of Nizhyn, Chernihiv Oblast.

The target was likely Nizhyn Airbase (51.08631, 31.86978).

Also, as I've stated before, Ukraine's Patriot interceptor stockpiles are extremely low right now due to repeated Russian attacks and no recent deliveries.

During the most recent attack on Kyiv, a number of their launchers sat empty and unusable due to the shortage, with the total number of launches being less than half that of similar-sized attacks in December-January.

I expect the interception rate for this upcoming attack will be very minimal, and Russia knows this.

HIMARS launches to Belgorod

Probably targeting border areas

Apologies, when reading over this post I realised I mis-typed something.

The threat is in place for tomorrow night and the night after, with the highest threat being in place for tomorrow night. There was never any threat for tonight.

I have a feeling this whole talk about sending a second aircraft carrier is a deception tactic, and they may strike before it even arrives.

I would not be surprised if an attack on Iran is imminent, much sooner than we may believe.

Very possible. It certainly seems like we are reaching a point where the strike could happen any day.

In the Komyshuvakha direction, Ukrainian forces continued their counterattacks and have cleared large parts of the territory south of the Konka River, most of which Russia did not have a strong troop presence in.

In the west, Ukrainian forces eliminated the Russian DRG infiltration southwest of Hryhorivka and south of Richne, re-entering the eastern part of Prymorske which was also in the grey-zone. From there, they pushed deeper into Prymorske, capturing the northern and eastern streets, while other assault groups cleared the forests further the east.

To the southeast, Ukrainian forces continued advancing west of Lukyanivske, moving further southwest along the tactical heights towards the solar farm. They also cleared the treelines to the north, and re-established control over the rest of Lukyanivske plus some the positions south of the village.

To the east, the Ukrainians recaptured positions northeast of Lukyanivske and pushed the Russians out of their foothold in Novoboikivske. Additionally, they eliminated the Russian infiltration in northern Novoyakovlivka and pushed them out of their foothold in the western part of the village.

+ ~38.20 km² in favour of Ukraine.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll=47.972743277699266%2C36.237619512610394&z=10

In the Omelnyk direction, both Russian and Ukrainian forces are advancing on different parts of the frontline.

In the southeast, Russian forces eliminated the Ukrainian DRG infiltration south of Hulyaipole and recaptured positions at the western end of the nearby gulley.

To the west, Ukrainian forces began counterattacking southeast along the railway line. They were able to re-enter some railway windbreaks, establishing control over part of them and the adjacent treelines. Attacks were then made further southeast, securing the right flank of the formations to the east carrying out attacking towards the highway.

To the northwest, Russian forces consolidated in the section of railway line southeast of Zaliznychne, captured the warehouses on the outskirts, and infiltrated the western streets of the town. Additionally, they were able to consolidate in the northern part of the town after repeated attacks, before infiltrating the northwestern streets. They also captured positions in the treelines and forest plantations to the north.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces were able to re-enter and clear the village of Staroukrainka from Russian infantry, establishing full control over the settlement and threatening Russian supply into northern Zaliznychne.

+ ~5.04 km² in favour of Russia.
+ ~4.37 km² in favour of Ukraine.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll=47.972743277699266%2C36.237619512610394&z=10

In the Omelnyk and Pokrovs'ke directions, Ukrainian forces continued their counterattacks, and have made significant progress over the last week.

After recapturing the rest of Ternuvate and clearing Prydorozhnje, Ukrainian forces entered and captured the northern part of Kosivtseve, as well as the railway windbreaks to the southwest. From there, they managed to push the Russians out of Kosivtseve and simultaneously advance east and downhill from the railway line towards the western bank of the Haichur River.

East of the Haichur River, Ukrainian forces continued advancing south through Nove Zaporizhzhya and recaptured the southern part of the village. From there, despite their earlier failed raid, they established control over the northern part of Dobropillya. This forced the remaining Russian formations west of the Haichur River to withdraw eastwards, back across the river, allowing the Ukrainian formations attacking from Kosivtseve to establish themselves along the western bank of the River, taking the village of Pryluky and its surroundings too.

With the Russian bridgehead now gone, Ukrainian forces continued the advance southwards along the eastern bank of the river, fully recapturing the rest of Dobropillya as well as the northern part of the neighbouring village of Varvarivka, where attacks are now taking place further south towards its centre. Additionally, the Ukrainians began pushing east from Dobropillya through the fields, recapturing treeline positions there and infiltrating further east in the direction of Solodka. They are also attacking northeast across the gulley in an attempt at cutting off Russian positions in the strongpoints southeast of Nove Zaporizhzhya.

To the northeast, Ukrainian forces continued advancing in their bridgehead east of the Haichur River, pushing south down three parallel treelines under heavy artillery and drone cover, in an attempt at cutting off the Russian strongpoints in coordination with the attacks from the south. They also captured a number of positions in the treelines further east, and are now attacking to the southeast int he direction of Solodke.

+ ~63.59 km² in favour of Ukraine.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll=47.972743277699266%2C36.237619512610394&z=10

In the Dobropillya direction, Russian forces continued their assault operations and have made new progress in three different areas.

In the southwest, Russian forces continued slowly advancing through Hryshyne, and captured new positions in the southern and northeastern streets of the village, reaching its centre.

To the northeast, the Russians consolidated in the west of the railway windbreaks east of the highway, as well as in some nearby treeline positions, and continued infiltrating further northwest to the former "Vodyanskaya" No. 2 Mine and the southwestern outskirts of Bilytske. Other assault groups advanced further along the railway line south of Dorozhnje, and captured some treeline positions to the east.

+ ~2.93 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll=47.972743277699266%2C36.237619512610394&z=10

In the Kostyantynivka direction, Russian forces continued their assault operations and have made new progress southwest of Kostyantynivka.

In the west, Russian forces consolidated in the southern part of Stepanivka and continued infiltrating towards the northern part of the village.

In the east, the Russians continued infiltrating through southern Illinivka to the southwestern streets of Kostyantynivka, where a grey-zone remains. They also managed to improve their positions east of Berestok, while fighting with Ukrainian formations in the village itself continues.

+ ~2.41 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll=47.972743277699266%2C36.237619512610394&z=10

In the Kostyantynivka direction, Russian forces continued their assault operations and have made new progress north of Kostyantynivka.

Following the earlier Ukrainian counterattacks in Virulyubivka, Russian forces crossed the tributary of the Bilenka River at two points, entrenching in the treelines and forest plantations in the direction of Stinky.

+ ~0.72 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll=47.972743277699266%2C36.237619512610394&z=10

In the Rai-Oleksandrivka direction, Russian forces continued to advance and have made new progress in three different areas.

In the northeast, Russian forces advanced further through the treelines southwest of Bondarne and cleared the last positions of the pocket east of the tributary of the Vasyukivka River.

To the west, after securing all of southern Pryvillya, the Russians consolidated in the northern part of the village, while deepening their infiltrations further northwest down the highway.

In the southwest, Russian forces resumed their assault operations northwest of Novomarkove, advancing northwest up both banks of the Siverskyi-Donets Canal. Here, they were able to seize a number of trenches and dugouts, as well as some adjacent treeline positions. Fighting also continues for the westernmost part of Minkivka, while some Russian soldiers have attempted to reach the treelines west of the village.

+ ~7.73 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll=47.972743277699266%2C36.237619512610394&z=10