It’s the first day of winter in Ukraine. It’s going to be very difficult for the soldiers in the trenches. Digging new trenches, which is necessary considering most of the eastern positions have been lost, will be very difficult in the snow.

HTS is suffering’s heavy casualties from the Russian and Syrian airstrikes in and around Aleppo, Idlib and Hama. Hospitals in Aleppo are overflowing with the dead and wounded, with reports of an ambulance convoy being set up to move the dead and wounded out of the city to other hospitals in HTS controlled territory.

Considering this, and the fact that HTS has conquered so much land, I doubt they will be able to hold their gains forever or consolidate control over them. They simply don’t have enough fighters.

An Israeli drone struck a car in near the village of Seir, south of the Palestinian city of Jenin in the West Bank.

There are reports that the four occupants, who were members of the Palestinian resistance in Jenin, were killed.

Approximate situation on the ground in northwestern Syria:

In Aleppo, HTS has taken control over most of the city except for the northern and northeastern suburbs. I am unsure who controls the northeastern suburbs, but we know that the SDF has taken up positions in the Sheik Masoud district, replacing the SAA. HTS also captured the Aleppo international airport, and the nearby Palestinian refugee camp.

East of Aleppo, the SNA offensive turned into a land-grab as SAA troops were replaced with SDF fighters, who flowed into the abandoned positions. The SAA probably fled so not to be encircled north of Aleppo. The SDF, however, has now been cut off there, although it is possible for them to escape this encirclement as the SNA presence in their spearhead cutting it off is minimal.

Southeast of Idlib, after the fall of Saraqib, the lines collapsed, allowing for a rapid HTS advance in the Hama and Idlib governorates. All of the Idlib governorate is now under HTS control.

North of Hama, forward HTS cells were able to reach the city, but were repulsed by SAA forces who had sent in significant reinforcements to the city to make a stand there. The SAA then launched a series of counterattacks, recapturing the towns of Maardes and Qomhane.

The SNA has claimed full control over the Aleppo Thermal Power Plant, seizing a Pantsyr S1 air defense system in the process.

Following the recapture of Maardes, The SAA claimed that their troops seized full control over the town of Tayyibat al-Imam, north of Hama. The next settlement is Suran, and then the SAA will have a solid buffer zone around Hama.

SNA rebels captured the Kuweires airbase, along with a Syrian Air Force L-39 trainer and abandoned stockpiles of missiles and bombs.

A recent report by Pro-Ukrainian source Deepstate suggests that Russian forces have likely created a second bridgehead on the western bank of the Oskil river.

According to the report, Russian forces were able to cross the Oskil river and take up new positions in the forests south of Dvorichna. They were also apparently able to enter the southern houses of the town, where fighting is ongoing.

It is possible that Russia is trying to encircle Dvorichna.

A Syrian airstrike was reported in the northern Latakia governorate a few minutes ago. This is the first time I have observed an airstrike in this area since the beginning of the rebel offensive.

Al-Mayadeen reported that the SAA recaptured the town of Qalaat Madiq, on the western flank of the HTS spearhead to Hama.

Wrong colour for the arrows. Pretend that they're red lol

According to Al-Mayadeen, the SAA thwarted an HTS attempt to infiltrate the town of Salma in the northern Latakia province.

Russian forces have reportedly occupied part of the chalk quarry north of Chasiv Yar, possibly in an attempt to bypass the city.

According to a Ukrainian source, Russian forces broke through Ukrainian positions northeast of Velyka Novosilka and landed troops in the village of Novyi Komar.

If true, this would leave just one paved road left supplying Velyka Novosilka.