HTS militants launched a new offensive in the Hama Governorate, breaking through SAA lines northeast of Hama.

They were able to advance down the major highways and off-roads in the area, seizing villages as they went. The question is, will they be able to consolidate control over this territory, or will we see a repeat scenario of Eastern Aleppo governorate.

Violent clashes between HTS militants and SAA forces continue northwest of Hama. The situation in the town of Qalaat Al Madiq is unclear, with sources from both sides claiming control over it. It is likely that the town has changed hands multiple times over the past 48 hours.

Meanwhile, HTS militants are attempting to advance in the Braideej area, possibly in an attempt to capture As- Suqalyabiyah to get behind Qalaat Al Madiq. As-Suqalyabiyah is likely the main SAA forward operations base for the Northwest Hama front, as well as an important logistical hub.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have advanced in the Pokrovsk direction, taking up new positions southeast of Dachenske.

Two Russian APCs advanced west across the fields, reaching a Ukrainian-held treeline. Russian infantry then dismounted and landed in the positions, clearing them. When returning, one of the APCs struck a mine, damaging or destroying it.

This advance also indicates that the forest plantations to the south were occupied.

+ 3.02km² in favour of Russia

Geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces made a small advance south of Chasiv Yar.

They were able to advance up the T-0504 highway to Bakhmut and seized trench positions near the chalk quarry. These positions are on the tactical heights, and whoever controls them will have increased fire control over the surrounding areas. Right now, these heights are contested.

Russia responded by firing two FPV drones at one of the positions, possibly wounding or killing two Ukrainian soldiers, although it is unclear if they were able to make it out of the way in time due to the way the video was edited.

+ ~0.6km² in favour of Ukraine

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces significantly advanced in Toretsk, seizing all of the Zabalka district in the southern part of the city.

This advance was likely done with a main attack towards the Terykons, which risked cutting off the Ukrainians in the eastern part of Zabalka. This, plus other possible attack vectors forced a Ukrainian withdrawal to the Toretsk central mines.

Russian forces then began attacking the Terykons, which are the commanding heights in the area. Whoever controls these Terykons has full fire control and surveillance over the surrounding areas. Russian soldiers were spotted climbing the slopes of the Terykons, but were struck by Ukrainian FPV drones.

One source reported that the Russians had seized most of two out of the three Terykons, although this has not been visually confirmed.

+ ~1.80km² in favour of Russia

The first attack was reportedly repelled.

Pro-HTS media claimed that HTS militants recaptured the towns of Tayyibat al Imam and Maardes, north of Hama. If true, this would put them ~9.5km from the northern outskirts of Hama.

A MiG-31K took off from Savasleyka airbase in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. The MiG-31K can carry the Kinzhal hypersonic missile.

Launch maneuver

Air raid alerts were declared in all regions of Ukraine.

The Kinzhal has not been observed in the airspace yet. It might have been a simulated launch.

On the Northwestern Hama front, HTS militants were able to seize the town of Halfaya. They claimed that 50 SAA soldiers were killed in the process of the capture of this town and others.

Either a Russian or Syrian airstrike then targeted HTS positions in Halfaya. Fighting is now likely ongoing for the next town over, Muhradah.

The MiG-31K landed at Privolga airbase in Astrakhan Oblast.

According to preliminary information, an unknown number of Russian Kalibr missile carriers have been deployed to the Black Sea.

An Israeli drone targeted a car in the Damascus countryside a short while ago.

Significant movements of Russian transport aircraft of various types were noted today, with them landing at almost all the Geran-2 drone launch sites. The cargo most likely consists of Geran-2 drones.

There are also reports that the equipment of Tu-95s, Tu-160s, Tu-22s and Mig-31Ks is in progress.

A rocket was launched by Hezbollah towards Northeastern Israel and struck an open area near the town of Kiryat Shmona.

A recent report states that Russian forces seized the entirety of the Toretsk central mine and the three adjacent terykons. The Toretsk mine is one of two main Ukrainian strongholds in the city, with the other one being the rest of the city centre.

I believe that Russia is preparing for another large-scale missile attack on Ukraine in the coming days. Several actions were noted that indicate preparations for a large coordinated and combined attack.

Firstly, several redeployments were carried out over the past week. Multiple Tu-95s and Tu-160s were redeployed from Ukrainka airbase in Amur Oblast to Engels-2 airbase in Saratov Oblast. At the same time, several Tu-95s were redeployed from Engels-2 airbase to Olenya airbase in Murmansk Oblast. The equipment of Tu-95ms/Tu-160/Tu-22m3/Mig-31K aircraft with missiles was also noted.

Lately Russia has been concentrating most of their strategic aviation at Olenya airbase, suggesting that they will use this airbase for the next missile attack.

There were also deployments of 5 Kalibr missile carriers to the waters of the Black Sea, including:

— 1 submarine of the "Varshavyanka" project
— 2x frigates of an unspecified project
— 2x MRK Typhoons of project 22800 “Karakurt”

This gives us a total possible salvo of up to 36 Kalibr cruise missiles.

Additionally, significant movements of Russian military transport aircraft was noted at Geran-2 drone launch sites. The following was recorded:

— The landing of an An-72 aircraft at Khalino airbase in Kursk Oblast.

— The landing of an Il-76 aircraft at Seshchna airbase in Bryansk Oblast. (There were also at least 10 other Il-76 aircraft recorded at the airbase according to new satellite imagery).

— The landing of an Il-76 aircraft at Yeysk airbase in Krasnodar Krai.

— The landing of an Il-76 aircraft at the Chauda training ground in Crimea.

All of these aircraft likely carried Geran-2 drones, which they were delivering to these points for intensified launches.