Russian reconnaissance UAV near Odesa. It is possible that there will be a missile strike there from Crimea in the coming hours.

It seems Russia has increased their individual missile strikes significantly over the past few days and decreased their large-scale strikes from the Tu-95's. Not sure why.

(Part 1) Geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces began small-scale coordinated offensive operations in the Lyman direction. There are three advances here so let's break it down:

Firstly, Ukrainian infantry from an Azov brigade advanced east of Terny, recapturing a large number of Russian-held positions in the gulleys and forested areas. They came under heavy Russian artillery shelling, but nevertheless were successful in gaining momentum in the area. They eventually reached stronger Russian positions and were forced to stop. From there, Russian forces launched a series of counterattacks, at least one of which was repelled by Ukrainian forces and caught on video.

The maximum advance of Ukrainian forces was ~1.83km.

(Part 2) Secondly, Ukrainian infantry made a smaller gain just south of the first advance. Not much is known about this advance, but they did come under Russian shelling following the seizure of the positions. The reason behind this advance and the first is likely a reported lack of Russian manpower in the area following redeployments to other more important sectors of the frontline.

The maximum advance of Ukrainian forces was ~1.24km.

And finally, Ukrainian forces supported by a tank made a small advance in the northern part of the Serebryanske forest.

The maximum advance of Ukrainian forces was ~580m.

Overall this is likely a one-off advance for Ukraine in this sector of the frontline and was likely a series of opportunities that Ukraine seized in the moment. It is also noteworthy that Azov which is usually in the hottest parts of the frontlines has been taken to a much quieter part of the front. This front became stable following the fizzling out of the Russian offensive on Terny and the Zherebets river. This further indicates that Azov was very badly mauled in the counterattacks in Avdiivka while the front was collapsing there.

It is also important to note that this recent attack by Ukraine will likely affect Russian morale in this sector of the frontline and is arguably humiliating for the Russian units there considering they lost a large number of vehicles assaulting Terny and lost weeks, maybe even months' worth of progress in 1-2 days.

It's still nothing major for either side, but I am going to keep an eye out on potential Russian counterattacks in the future here.

Update: an advance into central Zhuravka has been visually confirmed. I'm going to sleep now, but I will make a map for it tomorrow.

I will be hosting a live debate between @squatsons and @secretsqrl123 on twitter soon! I will link the space announcement when it starts.

It didn't happen. I think Scott fell asleep lol

Loud explosions in Kherson city.

Geolocated footage indicates that the Ukrainian defences in and around the Kanal micro-district of Chasiv Yar are beginning to fall apart. There are three main advances here, so let's break it down:

Firstly, Russian forces supported by a BMP advanced in the eastern half of Kalinina, reaching the Canal. From there they made larger gains in the forest and conducted reconnaissance missions over the northern underground section of the Siversky Donets Canal. This advance puts any Ukrainian formations still in the forest to the north of the railway line at a significant risk of encirclement.

The maximum advance of Russian forces was ~1.02km.

Secondly, Russian infantry advanced north of the former Chasiv Yar repair plant following the consolidation of positions in the newly captured dachas. This puts any Ukrainian formations in the repair plant at a risk of encirclement too.

The maximum advance of Russian forces was ~450m.

And finally, Russian infantry advanced inside the high-rise residential quarters in the Kanal micro-district. The first assault took place on the two high-rise buildings north of St. Boris' church, following the withdrawal of the Ukrainian garrisons holed up there. From there, possibly using these two buildings as a staging ground, Russian forces advanced south into St Boris' church while simultaneously attacking from the first residential quarter, gaining a foothold in the second one, capturing two high-rise buildings.

Overall, it appears that the Kanal micro-district might not hold out for much longer now, and the Ukrainian fortifications on either side of the canal will likely face direct ground assaults by Russian troops soon.

A lot of Russian Reconnaissance UAVs are active. 1 near Poltava, 1 near the coast of Odesa, 4 North of Kharkiv. We might see some missile strikes in the coming hours.

Not looking good for Ukraine. Russia now contests or controls every part of the Kanal micro-district.

Btw, this is how I divide the Kanal micro-district.

Cruise missiles launched from Russian tactical aviation are heading through Mykolaiv Oblast in the direction of Kropyvnytskyi.

Explosions in Mykolaiv Oblast. The missiles were either shot down or hit their targets.

Missile in the direction of Poltava. An explosion was reported.

Ballistics were launched at Cherkasy. Explosions were reported.

Ballstic missile in the direction of Kryvyi Rih

Air raid alerts were declared across southern Ukraine.

The Iskander reached Kryvyi Rih. Expect explosion reports in the next minute or so.