Allegedly the first picture of Assad and his wife in Moscow. It appears that they weren’t on that plane.

Another large scale Russian Geran-2 drone attack is underway, with dozens of drones in the airspace of Ukraine. Most of these are flying north from Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, however there are also Gerans flying northwest through Odesa/Mykolaiv oblast, as well as reports of drones headed for Kyiv.

This comes as over the past few days, the number of Gerans launched has significantly decreased.

Based on the frequency activity, the same source says that it is unlikely that anything will happen in terms of large-scale missile attacks today.

It’s an old photo

A general curfew has been announced in HTS/FSA controlled Damascus.

Just a reminder that the Syrian Civil war is not over. HTS and SNA have differing ideologies and interests. They are getting along for the most part, but I suspect tensions will rise between them.

Not much is known about the interests and ideologies of the new rebels in FSA, but their command structure is very scattered and they don’t coordinate very well. This could possibly lead to HTS seeing this as an opportunity to seize control in the south. The added threat of Israel, their airstrikes and ground incursion also may result in differences arising between the different factions in southern Syria. One side may view the other as incompetent in preventing a buffer zone being established and limiting the spread of Israeli influence in the region. I suspect that coordination between FSA and HTS will be limited at best, much worse than that of HTS and SNA. The one main upside for the rebels in the south is that HTS has publicly stated that fighting Israel is not a priority. They have also admitted that they do not have sufficient forces to prevent the Israeli incursion. This is likely in part due to the intense SAA-Russian airstrikes that occurred during the HTS offensive.

As for the situation with the SDF in the north and northeast of Syria, SNA is already actively fighting them, and have been doing so for years. Even before the beginning of operation deterrence of aggression, SNA had been infiltrating SDF positions and taking POWs. But now that they have launched their offensive on the key SDF stronghold city of Manbij, there is a significant risk of the SDF losing their bridgehead on the western bank of the Euphrates river. If HTS - who has agreed not to fight SDF for the time being - sees a weakened SDF, they may launch a coordinated attack with SNA, therefore decreasing the number of factions that are attempting to gain influence over a fractured Syria.

Of course, there is also a possibility that nothing happens, with the exception of SNA and SDF fighting each other. I guess only time will tell, but what I can say is that we are entering a new phase for Syria - a phase that has the possibility of being incredibly destructive for the country.

Recent reports from the Ukrainian source "Deepstate" suggest that Russian forces have likely advanced on two axes in the Pokrovsk direction.

Firstly, Russian forces likely reached the Solonyi river from the south, seizing the railway line and slightly expanding their control in Vidrodzhennia. They also reportedly slightly expanded their zone of control in Shevchenko.

Secondly, Russian forces likely advanced along a treeline to the northwest and are now within 1.35km of the southern outskirts of Pishchane.

What was reportedly an unknown drone struck a high-rise building in the city of Yavne, south of Tel Aviv.

Russian forces have reportedly captured around 40% of Shevchenko, reaching the town centre. They also reportedly captured the forest plantations to the west.

Russian forces have reportedly continued to advance in Chasiv Yar, entering the main building of the refractory plant. They also apparently entered the northwestern districts of the city, establishing control over at least two blocks of houses.

Heavy Israeli airstrikes continue to target Damascus. This comes as Israeli tanks have reportedly entered the southern part of the Damascus province.

Israeli tanks are now reportedly less than 23km from Damascus. This doesn’t mean that they are going for the capital however.

Since the collapse of the Syrian government, more than 300 Israeli airstrikes have been carried out on the country. Almost all of the Syrian Air Force and air defence network has reportedly been destroyed.

Map update from Syria:

Since the last map, the northern SDF bridgehead on the western bank of the Euphrates River has been eliminated by the SNA after the SDF withdrew from the city of Manbij.

Israeli forces have also advanced in southern Syria for over 25km, facing no resistance, and entering the Damascus governorate under the cover of heavy air and artillery strikes.

Localised skirmishes continue in Aleppo, primarily involving snipers, however information coming out of the city is murky.

3.4km to Pokrovsk...

The situation southwest of Pokrovsk is reminiscent of Ocheretyne.

The only thing holding together the situation south of Pokrovsk is Andriivka, and the only thing holding together the situation around Andriivka is Velyka Novosilka.

To safely storm Andriivka, Russia has two choices: cut the supply lines of Velyka Novosilka (red arrows), or storm the town directly (orange arrows)

To safely storm Pokrovsk, Russia has to do what I mentioned above, before choosing between cutting the supply lines into Andriivka (red arrows) or storming the town directly (orange arrows).

I personally believe that Russia will try to storm Velyka Novosilka and Andriivka directly, before bypassing Pokrovsk, cutting off its supply lines.

Of course - Russia has the ability to do all of these options, which further reflects the dire situation on the ground for Ukraine in Donetsk Oblast. The levelling of the frontline will allow for a united front against Pokrovsk, and the subsequent simplification of assault operations, and the eventual fall of the city.

This is why I believe Velyka Novosilka is the next key for Russia in taking Pokrovsk. The town of Shevchenko (south of Pokrovsk) which I have talked about previously is also important, but only in the sense that it puts Russia closer to Pokrovsk and allows them to threaten the city with direct storming or DRG operations, as it can be used as a forward troop concentration point and logistical hub. There are also a couple of heights in the area.

Geolocated footage and recent reports from reliable sources indicate that Russian forces continue to make substantial advances south and southwest of Pokrovsk.

Starting off with what is visually confirmed, Russian forces were able to advance into Novotroitske after seizing Novopustynka. Clashes occurred on the eastern outskirts of the village as the Russians attempted to gain a foothold. After establishing a foothold in the first houses, not much resistance was put up by the Ukrainians. The Russians were able to advance westwards, reaching a tributary of the Solona river and occupying the centre of the village. Ukraine still maintains a presence in the western houses, however.

Russian forces then moved south and occupied the livestock farm, and three treelines. Ukraine responded by firing multiple FPV drones, targeting Russian positions.

As for unconfirmed advances, Russian forces likely advanced across the tributary of the Solona river and broke through Ukrainian positions in the direction of Novoolenivka, and are now reportedly within firing range of the village. They also reportedly advanced westwards towards Novooleksandriivka, capturing part of a treeline and a grove. If true, this will put the remaining Ukrainian formations in and around Pushkine at significant risk of encirclement.

Meanwhile further north, Russian forces likely advanced in Shevchenko, entering the centre of the town. They also likely established a foothold on the northern bank of the Solonyi river (not to be confused with the Solona river), in the windbreaks on either side of the railway tracks.