Syrian civil war part 2 incoming. I have a feeling that Turkey will become the new Russia - at least in SNA controlled parts of the country.

Reminder: War is not only measured in square km.

There are other things that contribute significantly to the success of one side or another:

- logistics
- quantity of manpower
- quality of manpower
- artillery shell firing rates
- quantity of defensive fortifications
- quality of defensive fortifications
- Natural geography (eg. tactical heights & rivers)
- Production rates to sustain a war of attrition
- Economic growth
- Good wages for soldiers
- Morale
- Technological advantages
- Size of the country (at least in the case of Ukraine)
- RELIABLE allies
- Spheres of influence
- Natural resources
- Trade routes

And much, much more.

Don't think that just because people are saying that "RuSSia oNlY aDvAncEd aN aVerAgE oF 200 MeTReS PeR dAy" that it means that this will stay the same forever.

It's not that simple.

1 Russian Tu-95ms aircraft departed from Olenya airbase in Murmansk Oblast a short while ago and is flying south towards Engels-2 airbase in Saratov Oblast, presumably for the purpose of being equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. I expect it will return to Olenya within the next 36 hours.

Renewed Turkish airstrikes are being carried out on SDF controlled parts of Northern Syria. This photo is from near Tel Abyad.

A reliable source reported that Russian forces have advanced in the direction of Kostyantynopil', taking up new positions in the treelines to the southeast of the village.

According to Hadshot Yisrael, Netanyahu is in Cairo to sign a prisoner exchange agreement with Hamas. Meanwhile other Israeli media report that Israel has received a list of hostages confirmed to be alive in Gaza.

It's looking more and more likely that we will see at least a temporary ceasefire in Gaza soon.

A Hamas official to The Washington Post: “We have dropped the demand for a complete end to the war and the withdrawal of the IDF from the Gaza Strip. We insist that Palestinians be allowed to return to northern Gaza.”

Israeli forces have reportedly seized the Al-Wahda Dam in the southern part of the Dara'a governorate of Syria.

If true, Israel now controls the flow of the Yarmouk River.

A reliable source reported that Russian forces have advanced down a treeline and into the first houses of Novovasylivka.

Russian forces have reportedly advanced in Toretsk, seizing new residential areas and are now apparently trying to encircle the Ukrainians who have fortified themselves on the territory of the military enlistment office (circled in blue) and in the building of the community centre.

The Palestinian Authority has reportedly killed a Palestinian Islamic Jihad commander during battles in the West Bank city of Jenin.

Kan: Palestinian militants in Jenin refugee camp detonated an explosive device targeting Palestinian Authority security forces. A member of Islamic Jihad warned the security forces that if they dared to enter the camp, they would be treated as “occupation forces.”

An RSF drone struck the Sudanese armed forces’ Kenana airbase southeast of the city of Rabak in the White Nile State.

Russian forces appear to have launched the third stage of their offensive operation in Kursk.

This is true. While SDF will have well-trained soldiers and decent equipment, the withdrawal of US support will significantly degrade their fighting capabilities. This could put off a joint Turkish-SNA offensive until January.

I think the goal is to encircle the Ukrainian-held stronghold village of Malaya Loknya. Recent advances indicate that this movement is underway.

Once this northern bulge is eliminated - depending on how far south the Russians advance - it could make future offensive operations to cut off the other major Ukrainian stronghold village (Martynovka) from the rest of Ukrainian-controlled territory much easier

This will then allow for an assault on the buffer zone north of Sudzha, and then Sudzha itself.

According to the news outlet T&T Newsday, Trinidad and Tobago has signed a deal with America authorizing deployment of US forces on the island nation in case of conflict with Venezuela.