Correction of the frontline in the Novyi micro-district of Chasiv Yar:

Ukrainian forces maintain control over around half of the district but are pressed against the forest. It is also reported that the area to the east, including the trench fortifications by the canal is in a grey zone, and that Russian and Ukrainian forces both regularly operate there.

More information has come out regarding the situation in and around Leonidovo and Aleksandriya:

Russian armoured vehicles advanced from Novoivanovka, rushed across the fields and dropped Russian soldiers off at the orange circle indicated on the map. They then returned along the treeline.

This allowed them to bypass Leonidovo and Aleksandriya from the east. If these troops can be resupplied and if there are enough of them, they may be able to attack in the direction of Leonidovo and Aleksandriya.

The issue for the Russians is that while the AFU maintained its presence in the eastern houses Novoivanovka, they managed to heavily mine the western approaches of Leonidovo (circled in yellow). This may explain why Ukraine deployed Abrams tanks to Novoivanovka - to buy time for these mines to be planted so densely.

However, the movement of the Russian armoured vehicles suggests that the northwestern approaches of Leonidovo were either cleared of mines or weren't mined in the first place, which could mean that a two pincered attack is incoming - one from the groups of soldiers in the east to confuse the Ukrainians, and another from the northwestern approaches of the village - this being the main assault vector.

Ukrainian forces have reportedly completed the capture of the refractory plant in Chasiv Yar after bringing in reserves. Apparently, there are about 150 (!) Ukrainian soldiers in the plant right now.

Russian forces have reportedly advanced in western Donetsk Oblast and completed the capture of the first street of Novoolenivka.

Russian forces reportedly advanced in the Pokrovsk direction and have nearly levelled the frontline south of the village of Zelene.

Apparently, they were able to advance up two treelines, and fully capture a third, thus coming within small-arms range of Zelene.

Goodbye Blacky.

You were the best pet I’ve ever had and I will never forget you. Thank you for being here.

Chickens aren’t the most common animals for pets as most people view them as food. Many people have cats or dogs, but Blacky was special. She had just had her 15th birthday (chickens usually live 4-5 years) and has been with us for so long. She was a brilliant friend. Unfortunately she passed away just 3 hours before Christmas morning.

I don’t think I’m going to make any more maps or reports tonight.

Well it looks like Deepstate is back. Not sure what happened. Maybe they are still partially operational.

Three Russian Tu-95ms strategic aircraft departed from Olenya airbase in Murmansk Oblast two hours ago. They are flying south to Engels-2 airbase, probably for redeployment purposes.

Corruption plus a lack of time to construct fortifications makes defence difficult. Here is an example of what it's like in the Pokrovsk direction.

Here's a slightly better trench, but it still only has one dugout.

Germany has updated their list of military aid to Ukraine showing that they have sent significantly more aid recently.

It includes the following:

- 15 Leopard 1 A5 tanks
- two Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft systems
- 30 MRAP armoured vehicles with mine protection
- PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer
- 12 armoured vehicles with kinetic defence systems
- two TRML-4D radars
- AIM-9L/I-1 Sidewinder guided missiles
- ammunition for Leopard 1 and Leopard 2 tanks
- 120 GMW grenade launchers
- 52,000 155-mm shells
- 65,000 rounds of ammunition for Gepard systems
- 30 Vector drones, 24 RQ-35 Heidrun drones, and 14
Hornet XR drones
- 5 AMPS helicopter self-defence systems
- 45 diving scooters
- 12 Zetros lorries and 8 Zetros fuel tankers
- 200 MG4 machine guns
- 420 MK 556 rifles

A reliable Ukrainian monitoring channel reported that recent radio activity suggests that Russia is preparing a large-scale missile attack on Ukraine involving Tu-95ms/Tu-160 strategic aviation today.

Keep in mind, there are currently three Tu-95ms aircraft airborne right now, and are approaching Engels-2 airbase in Saratov Oblast, likely for the purpose of equipping with Kh-101 cruise missiles.

This makes me think that there won't be a strike today as I haven't personally seen missiles be equipped while other aircraft launch within the same day.

But it's currently Christmas Day for me, so if there is a missile strike, I won't cover it live.

According to the Ukrainian military news outlet "Defense express", Russia may have reached a production capacity of around 2,000 Geran-2 drones per month. They reached this figure after analysing the serial numbers of recently downed drones.

In February 2024, the debris of a downed drone had the serial number I 2600, whereas the debris of a downed drone on December 21 had the serial number I 11834E, which suggests that Russia has already produced at least 10,000 Geran-2 drones in 2024 with its own production facilities.

Northern Syria is heating up again. Maps to come later.

2 Tu-95s landed at Engels-2 airbase in Saratov Oblast. There is still one more flying on the same course, but it was at least 800km behind. It will probably land within the next 45 minutes.

Unconfirmed reports of Pakistani airstrikes on Afghanistan.

Former U.S. special representative for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad: "There are initial reports of heavy Pakistani air attacks in Bermel district in Paktika. If true, the Taliban will likely respond."

The last Tu-95 landed at Engels-2 airbase in Saratov Oblast. Meanwhile, the strategic comms activity was short-lived, and has stopped for the time being.

Repeated radio activity of Russian Strategic comms was recorded. If there is a strike tonight, it probably won’t be huge, due to the relatively small number of equipped Tu-95ms aircraft at Olenya airbase.

Merry Christmas to those who celebrate it!

Between 4 and 9 Tu-95s are currently airborne. They departed from Olenya airbase in Murmansk Oblast and are about halfway to the launch lines in the Engels area of Saratov Oblast.