A reliable Ukrainian monitoring channel reported that recent radio activity suggests that Russia is preparing a large-scale missile attack on Ukraine involving Tu-95ms/Tu-160 strategic aviation today.

Keep in mind, there are currently three Tu-95ms aircraft airborne right now, and are approaching Engels-2 airbase in Saratov Oblast, likely for the purpose of equipping with Kh-101 cruise missiles.

This makes me think that there won't be a strike today as I haven't personally seen missiles be equipped while other aircraft launch within the same day.

But it's currently Christmas Day for me, so if there is a missile strike, I won't cover it live.

According to the Ukrainian military news outlet "Defense express", Russia may have reached a production capacity of around 2,000 Geran-2 drones per month. They reached this figure after analysing the serial numbers of recently downed drones.

In February 2024, the debris of a downed drone had the serial number I 2600, whereas the debris of a downed drone on December 21 had the serial number I 11834E, which suggests that Russia has already produced at least 10,000 Geran-2 drones in 2024 with its own production facilities.

Northern Syria is heating up again. Maps to come later.

2 Tu-95s landed at Engels-2 airbase in Saratov Oblast. There is still one more flying on the same course, but it was at least 800km behind. It will probably land within the next 45 minutes.

Unconfirmed reports of Pakistani airstrikes on Afghanistan.

Former U.S. special representative for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad: "There are initial reports of heavy Pakistani air attacks in Bermel district in Paktika. If true, the Taliban will likely respond."

The last Tu-95 landed at Engels-2 airbase in Saratov Oblast. Meanwhile, the strategic comms activity was short-lived, and has stopped for the time being.

Repeated radio activity of Russian Strategic comms was recorded. If there is a strike tonight, it probably won’t be huge, due to the relatively small number of equipped Tu-95ms aircraft at Olenya airbase.

Merry Christmas to those who celebrate it!

Between 4 and 9 Tu-95s are currently airborne. They departed from Olenya airbase in Murmansk Oblast and are about halfway to the launch lines in the Engels area of Saratov Oblast.

There are also Kalibr missile carriers that were deployed to the Black Sea. There is currently a total possible salvo of up to 24 Kalibr Cruise missiles.

The approximate location of the Tu-95ms strategic aircraft. They have just entered Kostroma Oblast and are continuing their flight towards the launch lines in Saratov Oblast.

There are 4 confirmed Tu-95s airborne right now, however that number could be higher.

3-4 Tu-95ms aircraft departed from Engels-2 airbase in Saratov Oblast. There are now at least 7 Tu-95s airborne.

This is likely going to be combined strike involving two groups of Tu-95ms aircraft as well as Kalibr missile carriers in the Black Sea.

Approximate situation with the Russian Tu-95ms strategic aircraft.

Launch maneuvers were carried out.

The Tu-95s continue to move south to the Caspian Sea. They will probably conduct a launch maneuver there too.

Another launch maneuver was carried out, this time in the Caspian area. The chances are the first launch maneuver was simulated. We won’t see missiles for at least an hour.

Unconfirmed reports of Kalibr cruise missile launches from The Black Sea.

A third launch maneuver was carried out by the Tu-95ms aircraft.