Rocket alert near Gaza

The IDF reported that the Israeli Air Force intercepted one rocket launched from Gaza.

I've redesigned my live missile tracking map. Let me know in the comments any of your ideas for what I should add/change.

Reportedly newly constructed Ukrainian trenches in the Pokrovsk direction. These seem to be much higher quality than all of the other ones I've observed. Apparently, they were constructed in just a month.

Russian strategic aviation has been very quiet over the past few days. I believe that we won't see a missile strike involving Kh-101 cruise missiles for at least a week, probably longer.

I'll never understand the criticism from both Pro-Ukrainian and Pro-Russian accounts that I get for being young. (For the record, I'm 18, not 17).

I know multiple other accounts who are run by people who are a similar age to me, and they don't get the same criticism as I do.

I mean I understand the whole thing around life experience and knowledge that can be attained over the years, but surely you can be experienced in certain things at 18 to report on them the way I do.

I've never claimed to be an expert on this, reporting is just a hobby for me. I enjoy being able to tell people what is happening in the world, and I am learning so much about areas I used to hardly know anything about!

At a young age, the brain is like a sponge. It picks up things so quickly and holds them for long periods of time. If anything, that's an advantage. I also find that when I am interested in something, I can focus on it for ages and ages. Sort of like an obsession. That helps with mass learning things.

If there's anything that I've learnt, it's that you never stop learning things. There's always more to be found out and there's always more to be discovered. I'm incredibly excited to expand my knowledge base in the future, and I appreciate you all being here for the journey.

By the way, this isn't necessarily a response to David's post. I wouldn't usually waste this much time on such a delusional person who can't even use capital letters, but the post screenshotted below is just an example of what I mentioned above.

Sorry for the rant, I just wanted to get this off my mind.

Threat of Oreshnik IRBMs

No launches yet. Probably just training.

Just training. There won't be any launches.

A Russian Su-34 is airborne. There is a threat of Kh-59/69 cruise missile launches.

Ukrainian missiles (possibly HIMARS) struck the village of Ivanovskoye in Kursk Oblast. Apparently, part of the Russian 810th brigade was stationed here.

Explosions in Dnipro. A Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile struck the city.

Footage of the impact of what is possibly an Israeli interceptor missile in Tel Aviv, after a Houthi ballistic missile was launched at the city.

According to the IDF, the ballistic missile was intercepted.

Is Hamas and their allied armed factions making a comeback in the Gaza strip? An analysis:

According to the Jerusalem Post, Hamas is indeed making a substantial comeback in Gaza by recruiting new forces. Israeli channel 12 states that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) combined have between 20,000 and 23,000 fighters left. The Jerusalem post reported that the number was closer to around 12,000.

The IDF last reported that it had killed between 17,000 and 20,000 Hamas and PIJ fighters during the war and wounded another 14,000-16,000.

The fact that the IDF publicly stated in October 2023 that Hama's full forces were 25,000 means that the numbers simply don't add up, as if the IDF did indeed kill 20,000, that would leave just 5,000 still active, and that's not even including the 14,000-16,000 supposedly wounded.

However, other reports say that Hamas had a full force of 40,000 fighters at the beginning of the war. If you were to take away the 20,000 killed, and part of the 14,000-16,000 wounded who wouldn't have been able to be treated due to Gaza's heavily degraded health system, that doesn't add up to the 20,000-23,000 remaining Hamas fighters, especially considering that today's figures include the PIJ, and other allied armed groups.

This suggests that the IDF is either lying about the total number of Hamas fighters killed, or Hamas and their allied factions are conducting recruitment once again.

I personally believe that it is a mixture of both. The IDF has a vested interest in downplaying the civilian to Hamas casualty ratio to make them look better on a global stage and maintain key diplomatic and bilateral relations. However, I wouldn't doubt that Hamas and their allied factions are also recruiting Gazans, who have been radicalised by this war. After seeing their family members and friends get blown apart by Israeli air strikes, many will turn to Hamas and other armed groups for revenge against Israel, and for some - Jewish people as a whole. This pattern has been observed in so many conflicts in the past, and the ongoing Israeli attacks would create a breeding ground for recruitment.

Obviously, this recruitment will be much more difficult under these conditions. A significant portion of Hamas' underground tunnel network has been damaged and destroyed by Israeli airstrikes and ground operations; however, it is likely that they still maintain a solid presence in the central-southern parts of Gaza, between Rafah and the Israeli-controlled Netzarim corridor, specifically in the cities of Nuseirat, Deir Al Balah, Khan Younis, Bureij, and Maghazi due to the relatively limited nature of previous Israeli ground operations in these areas compared to, for example: Rafah, Gaza City and Jabalia.

Additionally, Israel obviously has full air superiority over the Gaza Strip, and can strike areas wherever and whenever they want, making recruitment much more difficult. Nevertheless, it appears that this has taken place at some level, whether that be low-level, or significant recruitment rates.

The same is also occurring in the West Bank, especially considering the current siege and battles for the Jenin refugee camp, but that's a story for another day.

Overall, I doubt that Israel will be able to fully eradicate Hamas due to both how embedded they are in Gaza, and also the radicalisation of the Gazan people.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces made two advances on the western flank of Pokrovsk.

In the west, Russian forces were able to establish a foothold in the eastern part of Novovasylivka after infiltrating the village from the nearby treeline. They were then able to advance south, capturing the first street. Ukraine may have repelled some Russian attempts to advance westwards from here, as Russian forces began advancing from the south, reaching its southern outskirts, and storming it from there.

This, plus a significant lack of manpower reported in the area, resulted in the collapse of the defence of the village, and a swift Russian advance to the western houses. However, it's too early to talk about the full occupation of Novovaslyivka, as it is possible that Ukraine maintains a presence in the agricultural buildings on the western outskirts.

As for the advance further east, Russian forces were able to cross the tributary of the Solona river and establish a bridgehead in the forest plantations on its western bank. From there, they were able to pan outwards in two directions, capturing the whole western bank. They were then able to enter the next treeline south of Vovkove, and established a foothold here, although reliable reports suggest that Russian forces have gone as far as occupying Vovkove as well as the nearby village of Solone.

+ ~3.61km² in favour of Russia.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have advanced in Western Donetsk Oblast and completed the capture of Novojelyzavetivka.

After establishing control over the village's eastern houses, Russian infantry went on to incremtally advance westwards, slowly dislodging the Ukrainians from their positions in the central part of the village. What happened in the western houses is currently unknown, as different sources are saying different things. There was either a decent amount of resistance put up, or there was hardly any.

I'm more inclined to believe the latter as it is generally difficult to maintain a small foothold in a settlement when pressure is constantly being exerted on you, partially due to the fact that artillery and FAB concentration is much higher due to there being less ground that is needed to be struck.

+ ~1.07km² in favour of Russia

🇪🇹🇸🇴 Ethiopian Defense Minister Aisha Mohammed visited Somalia on Thursday, marking the first such visit since tensions flared over Ethiopia's plan for a naval base in Somaliland.

Somalia's Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Ali Omar, confirmed the visit but provided no details. Ethiopian officials have not commented.

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Threat of Iskander-M Ballistic missiles from Voronezh Oblast.

The U.S. has approved the sale of 1,200 AIM-120D-3 and AIM-120C-8 advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles and related equipment to Japan for an estimated cost of $3.64 billion.

The U.S. government said that the move will "improve Japan's capability to meet current and future threats by defending its homeland."

There are also talks ongoing about co-producing the missiles in Japan.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock are travelling to Syria for a one-day trip on behalf of the EU where they will meet Syia's new rulers, including al-Jolani.

"My trip today - together with my French counterpart and on behalf of the EU - is a clear signal to the Syrians: A new political beginning between Europe and Syria, between Germany and Syria, is possible," Baerbock said. She also said that "we know where the HTS comes from ideologically, what it has done in the past, but we also hear and see the desire for moderation and for understanding with other important actors."

Meanwhile, Barrot stated that "In Syria, we want to promote a peaceful and demanding transition in the service of the Syrians and for regional stability."

Russian forces have reportedly advanced in western Donetsk Oblast, completing the capture of the village of Slovyanka.